Iceland - the canary in the coalmine

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I saw a news report on CBC that it was popular in Iceland for people to borrow on their home equity to go on vacations. Ouch! I wish people would understand that equity is better than debt.:wink:
 
I saw a news report on CBC that it was popular in Iceland for people to borrow on their home equity to go on vacations.

That was common in the US as well. The bigger problem there is that they took out loans for their cars and homes in foreign currencies, and the krona then depreciated against those currencies by a lot. So people owe a lot more on their cars and houses than they are worth in krona. Repos are increasing. There was an interesting quote that Iceland will become like Cuba - currently there are 2008 model SUVs being driven around, and in 30 years the same SUVs will be driving around.
 
That was common in the US as well. The bigger problem there is that they took out loans for their cars and homes in foreign currencies, and the krona then depreciated against those currencies by a lot. So people owe a lot more on their cars and houses than they are worth in krona. Repos are increasing. There was an interesting quote that Iceland will become like Cuba - currently there are 2008 model SUVs being driven around, and in 30 years the same SUVs will be driving around.

I think the generation affected by this recession will learn to keep their debt to a minimum as a habit from now on.
 
I think the generation affected by this recession will learn to keep their debt to a minimum as a habit from now on.

They have no choice - there is no credit left, and not as many exports to maintain the lifestyle of the last 10 or so years. I read some stat that one third of the population is thinking of leaving the country. This brain drain will further sink the economy.
 
They have no choice - there is no credit left, and not as many exports to maintain the lifestyle of the last 10 or so years. I read some stat that one third of the population is thinking of leaving the country. This brain drain will further sink the economy.

The recession from reports I'm seeing is expected to last 18 months. 24 months is a "technical depression". So this is a steep recession. Having trade open and stay open for 12 months will keep it from being a depression but you could easily see it going in that direction if everyone gets into trade barriers. The population in Iceland is 300,000, so it's like a small town getting huge pressure. A population that size must have little variety in industries. If it gets that bad there I don't blame anyone for moving. All you can do is the best you can. Those who still have jobs should do whatever sacrifice to their lifestyle they can to take care of the basics and pay down their debts ASAP.
 
I strongly doubt that the US government will allow one third of the population to emigrate. That's where your border controls/homeland security top secret shit come in real useful. And stuff.

I may have mistaken which country is under discussion here. Of course, the point stands even so.

Actually I just realised I'm totally fucking off the page. Nevermind.
 
The US might face a desperate, devastating run by large numbers of illegal immigrants on its southern border soon. Only this time from the direction when they are all heading home again. :wink:

Icelanders might be inclined to leave their island as the situation worsens. The question is, where to?

Unfortunately for them, the unique make up of the island and the sudden, totally wrongly handled privatization of the banking sector with lots of nepotism and an irresponsible government have led to a situation where the financial crisis probably hit them hardest, destroying what has been built over the last 18 years.
 
Icelanders might be inclined to leave their island as the situation worsens. The question is, where to?

I'm sure various countries (especially Nordic ones) can absorb a total of 100,000 immigrants. That's only slightly larger than the annual H1-B quota in the US. Having in-demand skills will make it a lot easier obviously. It'll be interesting to see if and when they actually leave in droves.
 
Only a few of them really have in-demand skills. Countries such as Norway, Denmark or Sweden (which are less in-demand than the other two) mainly look for workers from handcrafts. Lots of Germans go to Denmark and Norway for such work. Other sectors are also employing foreign workers, but on a lesser extent.
I don't really know about Norway's situation in the current crisis, but so far I've not heard any bad new about them. I don't think they are much engaged in the financial crisis, they have a strong, independent economy with stable income and they are not a EU-member, hence don't have to bother with that. But I don't know how dependent their economy is from exports, besides oil.

Denmark seems to be hit harder by the crisis, so the question is if they will be able to absorb any more foreign workers.

I'm sure there is, as always, a chance for those that bring the right skills. But it's sure not gonna be easy.
 
Iceland: frozen assets - Times Online

The best article I have read about Iceland, from A. A. Gill.

Iceland: frozen assets
Six months ago, Iceland was one of the world’s richest nations. Now it’s bankrupt. AA Gill visits the first victim of the economic ice age
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In the summer of 1783, there was a volcanic eruption in the southeast of Iceland that vomited lava into the Skafta river, which boiled and ran with fire like a mythological Nordic curse. The volcanic gases were toxic and poisoned animals in their byres. Seething clouds of opaque ash plumed into the sky, blotting the sun. Everything that photosynthesised withered and died. There was a famine that killed a fifth of the population — a fifth of the people who had survived the smallpox epidemic that had previously seen off a quarter of all Icelanders.

The act that tipped the last Icelandic bank off the edge of the cliff was delivered by Gordon Brown, who froze Icelandic assets in the UK using our new, gleaming anti-terrorist legislation. The Icelanders mind that — they’re hurt by that. You see, they always imagined they were one of us, not one of them. But Gordon needed to do something cheap to look competent, so he beat up a smaller kid. Not just a bit of a slap, but a vicious kicking. Showing off to impress the girls. He would never have started it if the banks had been German or French, or even from Liechtenstein.

The Icelanders mind about the terrorist thing. They don’t even have an army. They barely have a jail: it’s more of a drop-in centre. The police drive you home if you’re too drunk. This is the most liberal, reasonable, hard-working, decent, moral, amusing and well-educated people on the Continent; a nation who are temperamentally the furthest away from terrorism. Remember that about Brown — the man who said he wanted to prevent the export of terrorism. Remember it when he puts on his Save the World, Mr International Harmony hat. He put an ally into intensive care for the sake of a headline and three points in a weekend poll. Perhaps he didn’t notice. Perhaps he was looking through his glass eye.



Iceland has grasped this weakness, this greed, this business with money, and turned its back to take an unsentimental look at itself.

They will be all right. This is the nation that made the first democratic parliament — the Althing — that fought the Royal Navy to make the first sustainable fishery in the northern hemisphere, produced three Miss Worlds and one Nobel literature laureate — then came second at handball. You are measured by how squarely you stand against bad luck. Not how you squander good luck.
 
The article is probably thick on the romanticism, but it's alright. I've kind of had a soft spot for Iceland for the last few years myself, and, one of these days, I intend to learn their language too. And, now with the new job, more pay, extra vacation time, and devalued króna, maybe I can actually travel there in the not-so-distant future.
 
The article is probably thick on the romanticism,
very much so

"Iceland imagined that Europe and America would help it out."
as far as I can tell this crisis was caused by mismanagement in the financial market, households living on credit and in some countries a complete lack of regulations regarding mortgages (which accelerated the crisis)
pumping money to pertain a situation of mismanagement will never work
besides, Europe and America are hardly in a situation to help themselves let alone others

Brown (ab)using anti-terrorist legislation is bad practise though
 
The article is probably thick on the romanticism, but it's alright. I've kind of had a soft spot for Iceland for the last few years myself, and, one of these days, I intend to learn their language too. And, now with the new job, more pay, extra vacation time, and devalued króna, maybe I can actually travel there in the not-so-distant future.


You should go; it's a weirdly beautiful country. I loved it there.
 
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