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Old 10-02-2008, 07:25 PM   #1
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Iceland on the brink

Icelandic banks' CDS contracts soar on Glitnir rescue

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/aad3707c-901...se%3D%26dsz%3D


These levels are not sustainable. Iceland is likely to default on its debt.
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Old 10-02-2008, 07:32 PM   #2
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I thought you misspelled Ireland for Iceland. Got me really scared there.
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Old 10-02-2008, 07:34 PM   #3
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I thought you misspelled Ireland for Iceland. Got me really scared there.
Now, I will scare you for real.

Ireland could be next.

The bank deposit guarantee plan is a major gambit that may or may not come off.

But the Med countries are in the same position, pretty much.

We do live in interesting times.

But on balance I do not think Ireland, Spain, or Greece will go bankrupt.
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Old 10-02-2008, 07:43 PM   #4
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An interesting graphic - total assets to GDP% is by far the highest in Iceland:

FT.com / In depth - Are European banks too big to fail?

But a lot of other countries have too high a ratio as well.
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Old 10-02-2008, 07:55 PM   #5
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Is this going to make for a wholesale change in the way we let banks opperate?
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Old 10-02-2008, 07:59 PM   #6
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Is this going to make for a wholesale change in the way we let banks opperate?
Yes, I think that it very definitely will. Banks will go back to traditional models of lending. Banks will be much more tightly regulated. Probably a good thing, in the long run.
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Old 10-02-2008, 08:03 PM   #7
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Or banks could be nationalized, like Sweden did in the early 90s:

Sweden's crash and recovery - International Herald Tribune
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Old 10-02-2008, 08:05 PM   #8
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I haven't heard anything about Canada. It seems weird. They are saying they are very sound.

Could they be too in danger but just putting up a rosey picture?

I love how there is someone here that knows their economy. Sorry that I'm asking you so many questions. And by the way, what the hell you still doing up!
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Old 10-02-2008, 08:15 PM   #9
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Canada are among the sounder ones of Western countries, yes. Government debt isn't too bad and property price bubble hasn't been as bad as in most Western countries.

But I seem to remember you talking about the risks to Canada associated with a collapse in the oil price contingent on a possible global slump, and you are correct to raise this.

I also think you are right to be a 'union man'. Workers in unions tend to be better protected in times of recession.

Why am I still up? I keep Keith Richards hours.
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Old 10-02-2008, 08:28 PM   #10
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Ya if the oil market falls out it would spell disaster for not only me but the entire country! We are relying on commodities alot now that the manufacturing sector is taking a beating.

A union man I am! All the Irish over here are. My old man wouldnt have it any other way! haha

Maybe when I'm over next year we'll head for a pint.
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Old 10-02-2008, 08:31 PM   #11
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A union man I am! All the Irish over here are.

Not all.



And a contributing factor to Canadian Banks' soundness was that ARMs were marketed conservatively compared to much of Europe and the US.
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Old 10-02-2008, 08:41 PM   #12
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Not all.
I assume your from Edmonton or Fort McMurray? If you are I probably know you, since the Irish community is small and tight.
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Old 10-02-2008, 08:47 PM   #13
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I assume your from Edmonton or Fort McMurray? If you are I probably know you, since the Irish community is small and tight.
No. My cousin was out there though and wasn't a union guy.
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Old 10-02-2008, 08:51 PM   #14
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No. My cousin was out there though and wasn't a union guy.
Oh. Well he should have come down to the Irish Club in Edmonton and he would have been set up. Too bad for him.

Just a side note. I'm talking union tradesmen, thats my line of work.
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Old 10-02-2008, 08:55 PM   #15
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Oh. Well he should have come down to the Irish Club in Edmonton and he would have been set up. Too bad for him.

Just a side note. I'm talking union tradesmen, thats my line of work.

He's doing perfectly fine, no need to be set up. That's nice of the Irish Club to look after each other like that though
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