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Old 11-18-2008, 09:37 PM   #16
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Numbers don't lie.

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Give me a break. Read the link toscano posted to fivethrityeight.com. The article there explains exactly why this 'survey' is a joke.
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Old 11-18-2008, 09:50 PM   #17
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Give me a break. Read the link toscano posted to fivethrityeight.com. The article there explains exactly why this 'survey' is a joke.
I did, and they try to casually dismiss it, but it is unconvincing.

Zogby is renowned for being Independent, actually he leans left on some occassions.

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Zogby Statement on Ziegler poll




"We stand by the results our survey work on behalf of John Ziegler, as we stand by all of our work. We reject the notion that this was a push poll because it very simply wasn't. It was a legitimate effort to test the knowledge of voters who cast ballots for Barack Obama in the Nov. 4 election. Push polls are a malicious effort to sway public opinion one way or the other, while message and knowledge testing is quite another effort of public opinion research that is legitimate inquiry and has value in the public square. In this case, the respondents were given a full range of responses and were not pressured or influenced to respond in one way or another. This poll was not designed to hurt anyone, which is obvious as it was conducted after the election. The client is free to draw his own conclusions about the research, as are bloggers and other members of society. But Zogby International is a neutral party in this matter. We were hired to test public opinion on a particular subject and with no ax to grind, that's exactly what we did. We don't have to agree or disagree with the questions, we simply ask them and provide the client with a fair and accurate set of data reflecting public opinion." - John Zogby



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Old 11-18-2008, 10:01 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by diamond View Post

Numbers don't lie.

<>
Oh look, an "Obama is a muslim" guy put this together, yup, it's real reliable......any LESS reliable and it'll be being posted in forums everywhere by right wingers obsessed with Obama's birth certificate.....oh...wait........

FiveThirtyEight.com: Politics Done Right


Still, if "numbers don't lie" I'm sure we can all agree that the more educated in society did indeed vote for Obama, I mean, must be true, these numbers are form an "intelligent design" site

Education: Obama%/McCain%

High School or less: 42/48
Some College: 41/52
College graduate: 46/49
Post graduate: 55/40
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:08 PM   #19
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Numbers don't lie.

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As a professional statistician, I can tell you that numbers lie all the time.
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:09 PM   #20
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I did, and they try to casually dismiss it, but it is unconvincing.

Zogby is renowned for being Independent, actually he leans left on some occassions.
Yes, and Zogby is also running a business. His polling company was paid, and paid very well, probably, to administer this man's questionable poll.

Zogby didn't make any "claims" about this poll, as you suggest, he merely ran it. It's up to this Zeigler dumbass who commissioned it to interpret the results. Zogby says as much in the statement of his that you posted.

There are so many reasons that this is a shoddy poll, and not representative of the American public at all. Zogby knows it, and that's why he made a public statement about it. He knows he's in for legitimate criticism over this, and he's trying to mitigate it.
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:10 PM   #21
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Honest to God, you're willing to ignore the existence of statistical bias now, just because it means Obama might have won for the wrong reasons?

You're ... sad.
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:11 PM   #22
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are form an "intelligent design" site
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:12 PM   #23
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truth is a hard pill for some to swallow.

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Old 11-18-2008, 10:15 PM   #24
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truth is a hard pill for some to swallow.

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Uh, no, it's just a shitty, poorly done poll, plain and simple. I have grad level experience in statistics and research methods. This one is just plain bad, and proves very little.

I'm kind of surprised Zogby would involve himself with it, honestly. Like I said, $$. It's a business.
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:25 PM   #25
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512 Obama Voters 11/13/08-11/15/08 MOE +/- 4.4 points

97.1% High School Graduate or higher, 55% College Graduates

Results to 12 simple Multiple Choice Questions

57.4% could NOT correctly say which party controls congress (50/50 shot just by guessing)

81.8% could NOT correctly say Joe Biden quit a previous campaign because of plagiarism (25% chance by guessing)

82.6% could NOT correctly say that Barack Obama won his first election by getting opponents kicked off the ballot (25% chance by guessing)

88.4% could NOT correctly say that Obama said his policies would likely bankrupt the coal industry and make energy rates skyrocket (25% chance by guessing)

56.1% could NOT correctly say Obama started his political career at the home of two former members of the Weather Underground (25% chance by guessing).

And yet.....

Only 13.7% failed to identify Sarah Palin as the person on which their party spent $150,000 in clothes

Only 6.2% failed to identify Palin as the one with a pregnant teenage daughter

And 86.9 % thought that Palin said that she could see Russia from her "house," even though that was Tina Fey who said that!!

Only 2.4% got at least 11 correct.

Only .5% got all of them correct. (And we "gave" one answer that was technically not Palin, but actually Tina Fey)
Notice every question that they got wrong was based in either public policy, obscure historical facts, and things that the republicans would have scored much worse in.

Such a biased survey.
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:26 PM   #26
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truth is a hard pill for some to swallow.

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So THAT'S why you keep posting tin foil hat lunacy about Obama's birth certificate. Got it.
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:26 PM   #27
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Notice every question that they got wrong was based in either public policy, obscure historical facts, and things that the republicans would have scored much worse in.

Such a biased survey.
Wasn't too difficult for most of us to pick up on. Not all of us, most of us.
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:30 PM   #28
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The reason McCain lost is because of many things:

1. He clearly lost every debate that he was involved in, debating is about being calm and collected and stating your point clearly, he was not able to do this effectively.

2. He is out of touch with the majority of American's whether he would like to admit it or not. Anybody that has owned 12 houses in the past does not have the same wants nor needs of the average person.

3. He did not do enough to distance himself from Bush policy. Even most republicans would admit to the fact that the Bush reign of power was a disaster for their party not only from Bush himself but much of his cabinet.

4. The vast majority of people are tired of sinking money into a War in Iraq that either a. shouldn’t have started in the first place or b. should have been completed a long time ago. Over 2 trillion dollars has been spent their alone so far and this cost is still counting.

Obama hasn’t proven anything yet however people decided to give him the chance to change things that have happened. If he can do so it will be a victory but it is going to be a long tough road to dig out of what both the government as well as private business has done over the last 8 years.

After the last 8 years there is noplace to head but up even if its in small steps.

Republicans should blame the people that represent their beliefs for McCains loss this government had some of the widest and deepest spending in US history. This is not what Republican government is supposed to represent. One day they will get their chance again no doubt however they should take a long hard look at themselves as a party and their policys and get back to those basic principles.
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:34 PM   #29
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I'll chime in.

In any survey, sometimes the numbers and results matter less than the questions asked. How were the questions phrased? Were they leading in any way? Were certain facts omitted in order to get the desired answer?

So looking at numbers, especially when the objectivity of the organization that commissioned the survey is called into question, sometimes does not tell the full story.
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:34 PM   #30
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We don't have to agree or disagree with the questions, we simply ask them and provide the client with a fair and accurate set of data reflecting public opinion.
That's exactly the problem. The way one asks questions and which questions get asked are fundamentally important to the outcome. It's the basics of statistics that you have to consider how a question gets asked, i.e. what words get used and how the sentence is structured, to determine the validity of a survey.
If they try to represent McCain voters as being intellectually superior to Obama voters then they should dare to present the same survey with McCain voters as respondents (with some questions, of course, more tweaked towards McCain specifics).
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