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Old 10-18-2012, 05:23 PM   #496
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On the Real Clear Politics site

one candidate is 5 electoral votes ahead >>>>>>>>>>> Romney


RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map
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Old 10-18-2012, 05:25 PM   #497
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
On the Real Clear Politics site

one candidate is 5 electoral votes ahead >>>>>>>>>>> Romney


RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map
Yeah, but add up the likely wins for Obama and Romney's best chance is a tie at 269.

Speaking of, does anyone know the tiebreaker if that actually happens?
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Old 10-18-2012, 05:33 PM   #498
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yes, Romney wins

it goes to a vote in the 435 member House of Representatives

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"The Representatives from each state would get together and vote and the winner would be that state's vote. Each state makes a vote, so there are 50 different votes cast," "Because there are so many small states that are Republican and they have equal weight as [larger Democratic states], it would likely end up to Mitt Romney."

on that map, I will say very good chance Romney gets Florida, the people that go to the polls may choose Obama just like in 2000 they chose Gore,
the GOP machine is even stronger now, than it was in 2000, how and if some votes are counted, = Romney win

also, pretty good chance Romney can win in VA, not a for sure thing, bit good chance, with those two, the real factor, the only one that really counts is Ohio, yes, I know he needs to get one other small state, and at least one more is likely

but without Ohio, a few other small states will not be enough
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Old 10-18-2012, 05:58 PM   #499
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikal

Yeah, but add up the likely wins for Obama and Romney's best chance is a tie at 269.

Speaking of, does anyone know the tiebreaker if that actually happens?
The House would elect the POTUS, but in a method were each state gets one vote (that vote presumably decided by popular vote of that state's representatives). The Senate would then elect the VPOTUS, I believe by popular vote. However, the procedures on that are somewhat messily defined. For instance, I believe it's questionable whether Biden would get a vote in the case of a tie in the Senate, which is somewhat possible (I believe the vote would happen after the new Congress is inaugurated, but, again, this is all very vaguely defined). It would be nice to avoid that. I'd prefer a Romney presidency to a tie in the EC. If I were an electoral pledged to one candidate in the case of a tie, I would vote for the other to avoid having it go to Congress.
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Old 10-18-2012, 06:25 PM   #500
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
On the Real Clear Politics site

one candidate is 5 electoral votes ahead >>>>>>>>>>> Romney


RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map
According to the Electoral Vote site

one candidate is 38 electoral votes ahead (and 67 if putting statistical ties in the toss-up category) >>> Obama



Let's say it's tight at the moment (though the fundamentals are probably still leaning to Obama).
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Old 10-18-2012, 06:59 PM   #501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
On the Real Clear Politics site

one candidate is 5 electoral votes ahead >>>>>>>>>>> Romney


RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map
And 538 has Obama up by 36 electoral votes.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com
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Old 10-18-2012, 07:01 PM   #502
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And 538 has Obama up by 36 electoral votes.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com
and if you look at your site's state by state map you will see they have Colo at 50.8 % chances for Obama ( 9 votes) lose that small margin then it is only Ohio as I have been saying for some time now.
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Old 10-18-2012, 07:09 PM   #503
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Jon Stewart will put Romney in the Whitehouse

Barack Obama on Benghazi: 'If four Americans get killed, it's not OPTIMAL': Obama's extraordinary response to security fiasco after Benghazi massacre | Mail Online
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Old 10-18-2012, 07:14 PM   #504
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Not sure what you mean by that
It was a smart ass comment. I mean - when push comes to shove - the same number of people that were watching Bill Clinton's incredibly important speech at the DNC - were watching Honey Boo Boo that night.

So we can pretend that X% of those women surveyed (and if it were men, I'd have said sports or something) actually care about those things - primarily - or we can just admit that there are a significant number of men and women in this country that care a lot more about superficial pop culture entertainment BS than about the real issues facing this country, regardless of what that survey tells us that 'swing state women' care about.

And these people are choosing the next President. Not you or I. These are the people that somehow remain undecided. So whether they are labeled swing state women or red state men, there is a percentage of ALL of these groups that are just plain uninformed. Whether they are registered to vote or not.

And also, I am of the opinion that the debates are highly rated - only because these vapid drones are on Twitter - and it was trending everywhere.

And this has always been true but social media has made it worse.
Maybe that is a thread unto itself. The dumbing down of America.
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Old 10-18-2012, 07:18 PM   #505
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I'm at the point where I believe this election is Romney's to lose now... which is crazy considering a month ago I didn't think he had a snowballs chance in hell.
I would not go quite that far, I keep sliding around, putting his odds between 46 % and 51.3 %


these 67 - 70+ % for Obama are way too high
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Old 10-18-2012, 08:11 PM   #506
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Men watch Honey Boo Boo and women watch sports. I just finished watching the ALCS. I watch sports and reality shows and still have the brains to make an informed voting decision . Many people do the same thing.

I think things are so bad for some people that they want an escape. Doesn't automatically mean they're dumb - or dumbed down.

I've never watched Honey Boo Boo-not my thing and I feel sorry for the kid. I've seen clips on The Soup.
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Old 10-19-2012, 03:06 PM   #507
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Mitt Romney Speech At The Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner - 10/18/2012 (Full) - YouTube

Biden will laugh at anything
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Old 10-19-2012, 04:02 PM   #508
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Once again, an indicator that this election is truly a referendum on the intelligence of the electorate.

The Republicans making hay out of this comment is deplorable. The president was asked if the question asked if his response was optimal. He replied that it's never "optimal" when Americans are killed. All he was doing was using the phrasing that Stewart used. To suggest that this phrases indicates a flippant or careless attitude towards those who lost their lives indicates an utter disregard for context and tone and is frankly disgusting.
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Old 10-19-2012, 04:15 PM   #509
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Once again, an indicator that this election is truly a referendum on the intelligence of the electorate.
It just can't be repeated enough.
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Old 10-19-2012, 04:20 PM   #510
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Like I said in the thread about Benghazi - what about GWB's reaction to the Iraqi War fiasco? At least Obama is taking responsibility (I know, Hilary is taking it the most, but Obama is too). I think he could've done it sooner, but its better than never!
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