Global stock market crash in progress

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Frankly I'm a little baffled they didn't suspend trading for a short while, especially if there were technical glitches.
 
The markets were heading down before the "goof" - I'm expecting more down days ahead (perhaps a good rebound tomorrow, then more selling in the weeks ahead)
 
AEON said:
The markets were heading down before the "goof" - I'm expecting more down days ahead (perhaps a good rebound tomorrow, then more selling in the weeks ahead)
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it seems these (honest) mistakes can game the market

a smaller mistake might have gone unnoticed


but when we have some entities trading huge and with derivative? accounts,
known market swings will have huge returns
 
deep said:
it seems these (honest) mistakes can game the market

a smaller mistake might have gone unnoticed
Click to expand...

We still don't have the full explanation on what happened. An honest mistake, a bad glitch, whatever. But the underlying anxiety was already out there. I think that was also a facilitator. Once I saw an unexplained spike on a stock price at one point in the day. With amateur traders out there in their homes doing their own trading, things like this are bound to happen. Of coruse, I'm not saying this big glitch that happened Thursday was the work of amateur traders... :wink:

deep said:
but when we have some entities trading huge and with derivative? accounts,
known market swings will have huge returns
Click to expand...

The trick there is to know when it's just a swing versus a dive.

Like the whole Euro region right now is shaky. But why? Only Greece is expected to default on loans. Okay maybe there are a few other countries as well. But should we stop investing in the whole Euro region? Currency might be down right now, but the bottom line (if you're only considering stocks, not bonds or any other type of investments out there) should still be whether the company is solid in their cash flow and debt standing. There are a few good companies taking a hit right now because of the market panic. Once the emotions have settled down, it's back to the balance sheet fundamentals. They'll bounce back.
 
Are the OPEC members king-makers right now (aren't they always?) given that they could throw a wrench in things and switch oil trading into Euros from USDs? Not that they would, but would that almost instantly fix Europe?
 
I don't want this market to crash for one primary reason: the Canadian dollar appreciates against the USD every time the markets go up and depreciates every time it goes down. As I still have to send a lot of money back home to pay off debts, it's equivalent to a pay cut.
 
kramwest1 said:
Are the OPEC members king-makers right now (aren't they always?) given that they could throw a wrench in things and switch oil trading into Euros from USDs? Not that they would, but would that almost instantly fix Europe?
Click to expand...

No. This is a common misapprehension. It makes no difference what currency oil is traded in.
 
Congress looked serious about finance reform – until America's biggest banks unleashed an army of 2,000 paid lobbyists

It's early May in Washington, and something very weird is in the air. As Chris Dodd, Harry Reid and the rest of the compulsive dealmakers in the Senate barrel toward the finish line of the Restoring American Financial Stability Act – the massive, year-in-the-making effort to clean up the Wall Street crime swamp – word starts to spread on Capitol Hill that somebody forgot to kill the important reforms in the bill. As of the first week in May, the legislation still contains aggressive measures that could cost once-
indomitable behemoths like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase tens of billions of dollars. Somehow, the bill has escaped the usual Senate-whorehouse orgy of mutual back-scratching, fine-print compromises and freeway-wide loopholes that screw any chance of meaningful change.

The real shocker is a thing known among Senate insiders as "716." This section of an amendment would force America's banking giants to either forgo their access to the public teat they receive through the Federal Reserve's discount window, or give up the insanely risky, casino-style bets they've been making on derivatives. That means no more pawning off predatory interest-rate swaps on suckers in Greece, no more gathering balls of subprime shit into incomprehensible debt deals, no more getting idiot bookies like AIG to wrap the crappy mortgages in phony insurance. In short, 716 would take a chain saw to one of Wall Street's most lucrative profit centers: Five of America's biggest banks (Goldman, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup) raked in some $30 billion in over-the-counter derivatives last year. By some estimates, more than half of JP Morgan's trading revenue between 2006 and 2008 came from such derivatives. If 716 goes through, it would be a veritable Hiroshima to the era of greed.

"When I first heard about 716, I thought, 'This is never gonna fly,'" says Adam White, a derivatives expert who has been among the most vocal advocates for reform. When I speak to him early in May, he sounds slightly befuddled, like he can't believe his good fortune. "It's funny," he says. "We keep waiting for the watering-down to take place – but we keep getting to the next hurdle, and it's still staying strong."

In the weeks leading up to the vote on the reform bill, I hear one variation or another on this same theme from Senate insiders: that the usual process of chipping away at key legislation is not taking place with its customary dispatch, despite a full-court press by Wall Street. The financial-services industry has reportedly flooded the Capitol with more than 2,000 paid lobbyists; even veteran members are stunned by the intensity of the blitz. "They're trying everything," says Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat from Ohio. Wall Street's army is especially imposing given that the main (really, the only) progressive coalition working the other side of the aisle, Americans for Financial Reform, has been in existence less than a year – and has just 60 unpaid "volunteer" lobbyists working the Senate halls.
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Politics -- Latest News -- Wall Street's War -- RollingStone.com
 
Can you judge how close the global economy is to the brink of another financial crisis by measuring risk-taking in the markets?

Jacob Gyntelberg and Michael King, two researchers at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), seem to think so. And they've found some alarming parallels between recent bank and investor behavior and the patterns preceding the global meltdowns that began in 2007.

The BIS is the so-called central bank of central banks, where the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and others come together to share information, policy ideas and economic research. It also acts as an agent or trustee to help international financial operations flow and a counterparty for transactions between central banks -- in other words, the world's lending facilitator of last resort.

In a commentary accompanying the latest quarterly BIS report on banking and market statistics called "Back to the Future," Gyntelberg and King compare the tumult of two and three years ago to the volatility of stock markets and credit markets in recent months as Europe grappled with renewed financial crises in Greece and elsewhere that threatened to spread across the Atlantic.

"The swift reversal in market confidence evokes painful memories of autumn 2008, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers brought money and capital markets to a virtual standstill," they write. "In both cases market sentiment deteriorated rapidly around a trigger event, with problems in one region spreading globally through the network of interbank funding markets and counterparty credit exposures."

To translate into nonfinancial language: After Lehman collapsed, investors around the world lost confidence in all banks with investment ties to Lehman -- which was many of the world's big institutions -- and panicked.
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New Financial Crisis May Be Brewing, Analysts Warn

:uhoh:
 
For those whose 401k took a beating then rebounded, this looks like your chance to sell high.

A stock market forecast that says ‘take cover’ - thestar.com

Jeff Sommer
New York Times News Service

With the stock market lurching again, plenty of investors are nervous, and some are downright bearish. Then there’s Robert Prechter, the market forecaster and social theorist, who is in another league entirely.

Prechter is convinced we have entered a market decline of staggering proportions – perhaps the biggest of the last 300 years.

In a series of phone conversations and e-mail exchanges last week, he said that no other forecaster was likely to accept his reasoning, which is based on his version of the Elliott Wave theory – a technical approach to market analysis that he embraces with evangelical fervor.

Originating in the writings of Ralph Nelson Elliott, an obscure accountant who found repetitive patterns, or "fractals," in the stock market of the 1930s and '40s, the theory suggests that an epic downswing is underway, Prechter said. But he argued that even skeptical investors should take his advice seriously.

"I’m saying: ‘Winter is coming. Buy a coat,’" he said. "Other people are advising people to stay naked. If I’m wrong, you’re not hurt. If they’re wrong, you’re dead. It’s pretty benign advice to opt for safety for a while."

His advice: Individual investors should move completely out of the market and hold cash and cash equivalents, like Treasury bills, for years to come. (For traders with a fair amount of skill and willingness to embrace risk, he suggests other alternatives, like shorting the market or making bets on volatility.) But ultimately, "the decline will lead to one of the best investment opportunities ever," he said.

Buy-and-hold stock investors will be devastated in a crash much worse than the declines of 2008 and early 2009 or the worst years of the Great Depression or the Panic of 1873, he predicted.

For a rough parallel, he said, go all the way back to England and the collapse of the South Sea Bubble in 1720, a crash that deterred people "from buying stocks for 100 years," he said. This time, he said, "If I’m right, it will be such a shock that people will be telling their grandkids many years from now, ‘Don’t touch stocks.'"

The Dow, which now stands at 9,686.48, is likely to fall well below 1,000 over perhaps five or six years as a grand market cycle comes to an end, he said. That unraveling, combined with a depression and deflation, will make anyone holding cash "extremely grateful for their prudence."

Prechter is hardly the only market hand to advocate prudence now, but nearly everyone else foresees a much rosier future once current difficulties are past. For example, Ralph J. Acampora, a market analyst with more than 40 years of experience, said he moved entirely out of stocks and into cash late last month. Now a partner at Alverita, a wealth management firm in New York, he said recent setbacks suggested that the market would drop another 10 or 15 percent, probably until September or October, before resuming another "meaningful rally."

Over the next several years Acampora expects an "old normal market," characterized by relatively short-lived swings that will provide many opportunities for smart investors – one that resembles the markets of the 1960s and 70s. "I’ve lived through it," he said.

Like Prechter, he is a past president of the Market Technicians Association, the leading organization of technical market analysts, and he said that his colleague has done "some very good work." But Acampora doesn’t agree with Prechter’s long-term theories, either intellectually or emotionally.

The "mathematics don’t work," Acampora said, because such a big decline would imply that individual stocks would need to trade at unrealistically low levels. Furthermore, he said, "I don’t want to agree with him, because if he’s right, we’ve basically got to go to the mountains with a gun and some soup cans, because it’s all over."

Still, on a "near-term" basis, he said, "We’re probably saying the same thing."
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AliEnvy said:
Warren Buffett has been investing heavily into water utilities for the last few years including the world's largest water treatment company. He will likely profit large from the Gulf oil spill.
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I know Pentair, Inc.(NYSE: PNR) does a lot with water filtration and such.

I just wonder if we will ever get to the point where fresh water is traded as a commodity.
 
financeguy said:
Politics -- Latest News -- Wall Street's War -- RollingStone.com
Click to expand...


Good artcile, but this "reform" will not touch those who need to be touched.

Why was Jamie Dimon not called to explain why he suddenly issued margin calls to Lehaman , causing it to fall, and essentially, Bear Stearns, who they ( JP Morgan ) "bought" for pennies on the dollar. Essentially wiping out the biggest competition. He should have been called.

Then we have the NY Fed, and the Timmy G gang, whch includes former NY feds, who just happen to have long relationships with Timmy's dad.

Astoundingly, most of them were cureent or Former Chairmans and CEO's of..... Goldman Sachs.

There is a long realationship in the circle.

Geithner's+world.jpg
sorry , kind of a double post. was trying to attach a photo /graph.
 
financeguy said:
Politics -- Latest News -- Wall Street's War -- RollingStone.com
Click to expand...


Jamie Dimon, Timmy G , Robert Rubin, and half of Goldman Sachs current and former CEO's , and with many of them, the NY Fed. Timmy G was in charge.

I am not sure how they can have reform , when they haven't finished investigating, even after 2 years.

JD is too powerfull for them to touch , but he could sure tell the story of the margin calls to Lehman , and Bear Stearns. Corporate assination?

Maybe. Most of the competition went away that day .

Worst mistake ever. Repeal of Glass- Stegal
 
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