Global stock market crash in progress

[BVS]

I think you just don't understand my posts and act like a snob and superior. I read my articles and other people's articles and I just don't always reach the same conclusion you do.

I understand your post, I just don't understand why you don't actually address the questions asked or the topic at hand.

Also what you think is important in a discussion is often not what other people think is important so they will not follow YOUR template. I think you ignore my posts by far more with:

"Stop drinking the Kool-Aid"

"You didn't read my post"

"That's not a good source"

and more brilliant "gotcha" moments like that. Anybody can do that. You also like to ask people to bring TONS of evidence from the internet to back up their opinions yet I don't see you doing the same either. It's like a tactic to wear posters out while you use one sentence responses. Why don't you do some work for a change? Why is it that other conservative posters complain about the same responses from you? Is it because all conservatives are stupid and don't read posts or is it because they don't saying things in agreement with you?

Well a lot of times you don't read my posts or other posters.

And sources are very important, not just in here, in life. A report on global warming written by a guy who took one meteorology class in college isn't going to cut it. When you post a source that's just dripping with obvious bias, how is anyone suppose to take it seriously?

I don't ask for tons of evidence but if you make a specific statement then be prepared to back it up, that goes for everywhere, you had to site your sources in college, right? If I make a post and you don't believe my facts then ask for a source I'll be glad to provide one.

This has nothing to do with me not liking what you are saying, it's about just being able to back up what you say and being courteous enough to discuss the issue at hand. You often come off as someone who likes to "talk" a lot but never really "listens".

I don't think the Iraqi surplus is as important in the discussion as you do. Too bad. You have to learn to agree to disagree instead of belabouring small points, and brow beating posters.

And that's fine if you don't think the surplus is important. But don't quote someone's and then go on and on about something else and not address the quote. Or at least explain why you think we should be footing the bill and not the country that is benefitting from it. But you didn't do that, you just kept going on and on how we shouldn't just bail, when no one suggested that. You don't argue that the sky is blue if no one hasn't suggested otherwise, that would be pointless.

This had nothing, absolutely nothing to do with me disagreeing with your stance, it had everything to do with your approach to "discussing" it.

 

[purpleoscar]

"We shouldn't foot the whole bill while Iraq is generating huge surplusses."

Iraq is footing some of the bill but if the U.S. is causing war damage it makes sense that they should foot more since they do most of the destruction. See Bush article below on what Bush intended to do with reconstruction in 2005.

Fact Sheet: Rebuilding Iraq

"Together, Iraqis And Americans Are Making Progress. Reconstruction has not always gone as well as hoped - primarily because of the security challenges. Rebuilding a nation devastated by a dictator is a large undertaking - even harder when terrorists attempt to destroy gains. Yet, in the space of two and a half years, the United States has helped Iraqis conduct nearly 3,000 renovation projects at schools, train more than 30,000 teachers, distribute more than 8 million textbooks, rebuild irrigation infrastructure to help more than 400,000 rural Iraqis, and improve drinking water for more than 3 million people. The Coalition has helped Iraqis introduce a new currency, reopen their stock exchange, and extend $21 million in micro-credit and small business loans. As a result of these efforts and Iraq's newfound freedom, more than 30,000 new Iraqi businesses have registered since liberation, and according to a recent survey, more than three-quarters of Iraqi business owners anticipate growth in the economy over the next two years. This economic development and growth will be key to addressing the high unemployment rate across many parts of the country. In addition, Iraqis have negotiated significant debt relief and completed an economic report card with the International Monetary Fund - a signal that Iraqis are serious about reform. "

The oil surplus would do very little in paying for the above. It's not the most important thing and could cause public relations problems that we don't need at the tail end of a war.

I'm sure he can cut a few billion a month from Iraq.[/I]

ABC News: Studies: Iraq Costs US $12B Per Month

If 12 billion per month is spent you would be cutting into quite a lot of services if a "few" is 5 billion. How much?

But the US does not necessarily have to fund it, even using your assumptions. What about the $70+ billion Iraq oil surplus? A lot of the monthly US outlay for Iraq is probably going into Swiss bank accounts anyway. Billions in funds are unaccounted for. Halliburton no-bid contracts don't exactly provide great value for the money either.

Sources please? What should be done then to prevent this? I'm all for value for money.

You didn't address the point. If Obama can do with $5 billion what it takes Bush $10 billion a month, that's $60 billion in savings a year right there.

How is Obama going to do it? Does he have a platform for it or is he going to withdraw ASAP? He must have some website with his plans somewhere that talks about Iraq plans. Having a timeline is not really detailed enough.

Yes I read it. And I agree, and I'm not sure why Republican don't understand this, you're right you can't cut taxes and then spend all you want... but that's exactly what we've been doing.

I've put in other posts that you may have not read that conservatives are only a part of the Republican party. I know that Bush and republicans in congress increased entitlements enormously and conservatives within the party (even "in the tank" people like Rush) cried foul. Remember Bush wanted to appear as a "compassionate conservative". This of course means more entitlements. He should have raised taxes for them or not do them at all. We agree there

Reliable sources are those that don't include jabs such as "like good liberals do", aren't dripping with partisan rhetoric and advertising.

And reliable sources especially don't include the racist bullshit you tried to push on us last week in the immigration thread...

Sometimes you have to look at think tanks to find info because bias isn't always a total lie. Getting closer to the truth may involve comparing two different biases. Maybe you should list some sources that you think regularly have less bias. Note: If you list liberal sources I'm going to call you on it like you do me. Okay?

BTW the immigration stuff I was talking about was hardly racist. Show me the lines in the article where it is racist.

Is that better BVS? I guess not posting enough sources to back up claims and opinions is an epidemic here.

 

[financeguy]

I don't want any Iraq war debates in my economics threads. My views on Iraq are completely clear, and, along with Irvine, Anitram, Martha, and others on here, were completely correct and have been completely vindicated. Some former Iraq war supporters, to their credit, have now realised and admitted to their error. Others still plough the same furrow.

Take it to fuck elsewhere, please.

 

[purpleoscar]

I don't want any Iraq war debates in my economics threads. My views on Iraq are completely clear, and, along with Irvine, Anitram, Martha, and others on here, were completely correct and have been completely vindicated. Some former Iraq war supporters, to their credit, have now realised and admitted to their error. Others still plough the same furrow.

Take it to fuck elsewhere, please.

The Iraq war is part of the discussion of the budget balancing that the government has to do.

I think you are targeting opinions you don't agree with, hence your "vindication" about Iraq comment. We are not debating the war, but the cost of the war. If the government is dipping into debt posters are debating whether we should cut funding there or other entitlement programs to balance the budget. Economics also involves funding for programs including the war.

Give us some leeway and some mercy

 

[financeguy]

The Iraq war is part of the discussion of the budget balancing that the government has to do.

I think you are targeting opinions you don't agree with, hence your "vindication" about Iraq comment. We are not debating the war, but the cost of the war. If the government is dipping into debt posters are debating whether we should cut funding there or other entitlement programs to balance the budget. Economics also involves funding for programs including the war.

Give us some leeway and some mercy

Well, ok, the cost of funding the war is a part of the government expenditure. But the thread was supposed to be about the stock market. But, whatever, post what you like. It's just we've seen the Iraq war debated so often here, without ever reaching resolution (*).


(* Strongbow, NO! Resist the temptation!)

 

[ntalwar]

Sources please? What should be done then to prevent this? I'm all for value for money.

How is Obama going to do it? Does he have a platform for it or is he going to withdraw ASAP? He must have some website with his plans somewhere that talks about Iraq plans. Having a timeline is not really detailed enough.

Do you know what a no-bid contract is? It means Halliburton and other favored firms gets to charge basically whatever they want for their contracts (worth tens of billions or more), and there is no contract competition. Did you know Halliburton moved their HQ to Dubai to escape scrutiny here? You might see it differently if it were your tax money.

 

[purpleoscar]

Do you know what a no-bid contract is? It means Halliburton and other favored firms gets to charge basically whatever they want for their contracts (worth tens of billions or more), and there is no contract competition. Did you know Halliburton moved their HQ to Dubai to escape scrutiny here? You might see it differently if it were your tax money.

I would like to know more. Are there any good articles that talk in depth about it?

Wikipedia is not doing it for me on this subject. With "neutrality of this section is disputed" and "This section may require clean up" I'm not getting much help.

 

[purpleoscar]

Well, ok, the cost of funding the war is a part of the government expenditure. But the thread was supposed to be about the stock market. But, whatever, post what you like. It's just we've seen the Iraq war debated so often here, without ever reaching resolution (*).


(* Strongbow, NO! Resist the temptation!)

Thanks for the understanding.

 

[Utoo]

As we brace ourselves for what is looking to be a terrible day for the market, let's take comfort in this:

The more the economy is tops in the news, the more we get to see Erin Burnett of CNBC.

 

[Varitek]

Every time we get set for a really bad open of the US stock market (what is this, the 5th or 6th day in a month where we might see a 500+ point drop?) I think of the Gawker headline from early in the crisis, "Good Morning, Your Money Is On Fire."

The TED had been going way down (improving) for the last two days, and it seemed like everything was looking better....or not.

 

[Utoo]

Asia and Russia set everything off today, but from what I've heard so far, no one knows why they tanked today.

 

[ntalwar]

For Asia, slumping sales of cars and electronics are hurting. Russia is suffering from lower oil and natural gas prices. A lot of countries in Eastern Europe (Hungary, Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia) are near bankruptcy, and the UK economy contracted slightly. Things are looking bleak almost everywhere.

 

[AliEnvy]

Financeguy, ntalwar, what do you think the likelihood is that the US will see hyperinflation in the not too distant future?

 

[financeguy]

Everything I've seen recently is indicating the opposite - deflation.

"Stagdeflation" as I think Roubini was calling it the other day.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/10/roubini-on-cnbc.html

 

[dazzlingamy]

i have no idea what is going on with the financial market, because everything i hear just seems to be counterbalanced when i look at the currency market. 61 cents today. Its terribly depressing.

 

[coolian2]

I don't care. All I know is petrol is cheaper.

 

[indra]

i have no idea what is going on with the financial market, because everything i hear just seems to be counterbalanced when i look at the currency market. 61 cents today. Its terribly depressing.

It's great for someone I know who gets a portion of his income from the US. Say he was due $1000 US now -- he would get $1610 AU. A few months ago when your dollar was really strong he wasn't getting much over $1000 to $1075 AU for that same amount.

 

[dazzlingamy]

i just wished i bought more US dollars when i could have!
heres hoping it changes in the next couple of months!

 

[AliEnvy]

I don't care. All I know is petrol is cheaper.

Only until Nov. 4th.

 

[ntalwar]

Only until Nov. 4th.

Gas prices are seasonal usually, and I think the OPEC cut of 1.5 million bpd will have more of an impact than the election (unless the US dollar keeps going up). Quite a few countries are experiencing a massive flight of capital, which limits their ability to purchase commodities on the international markets - especially among those with small foreign reserves. Another blog I read lists the following countries as being short on cash, bankrupt, or in need of an emergency loan/bailout: Denmark, Romania, Hungary, Ukraine, Belarus, Iceland, Argentina, Pakistan, Indonesia, Korea, Serbia, Spain, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Kazakhstan.

 

[financeguy]

Gas prices are seasonal usually, and I think the OPEC cut of 1.5 million bpd will have more of an impact than the election (unless the US dollar keeps going up). Quite a few countries are experiencing a massive flight of capital, which limits their ability to purchase commodities on the international markets - especially among those with small foreign reserves. Another blog I read lists the following countries as being short on cash, bankrupt, or in need of an emergency loan/bailout: Denmark, Romania, Hungary, Ukraine, Belarus, Iceland, Argentina, Pakistan, Indonesia, Korea, Serbia, Spain, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Kazakhstan.

If Denmark and Spain are on that list then Ireland should be too!

 

[ntalwar]

I think the author referenced these articles:

Spain:

Castilian Crisis: Bleak Economic Outlook for Spain - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

Denmark:

Bloomberg.com: Europe

 

[ntalwar]

Europe on the brink of currency crisis meltdown - Telegraph

The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that Western European banks hold almost all the exposure to the emerging market bubble, now busting with spectacular effect.

They account for three-quarters of the total $4.7 trillion £2.96 trillion) in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia extended during the global credit boom – a sum that vastly exceeds the scale of both the US sub-prime and Alt-A debacles.

..

Austria’s bank exposure to emerging markets is equal to 85pc of GDP – with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia – all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund.

Exposure is 50pc of GDP for Switzerland, 25pc for Sweden, 24pc for the UK, and 23pc for Spain. The US figure is just 4pc. America is the staid old lady in this drama.

Amazingly, Spanish banks alone have lent $316bn to Latin America, almost twice the lending by all US banks combined ($172bn) to what was once the US backyard. Hence the growing doubts about the health of Spain’s financial system – already under stress from its own property crash – as Argentina spirals towards another default, and Brazil’s currency, bonds and stocks all go into freefall.

It's not a good time to be in the €.

 

[Vincent Vega]

before Götterdammerung struck Reykjavik.

How cool is that!? But correctly, it would be Götterdämmerung.

Nevertheless, the only good thing of the arcticle.
Sounds like I should exchange more money to the dollar before it turns around. It's already down to 1.25.
The fat years are over, as we say in German.

 

[financeguy]

So, even those European countries which didn't themselves have house price bubbles (like Austria) seem to have created problems for themselves by a splurge of dodgy foreign lending.

What a mess.

Spain seems to have both problems - deflating domestic housing market AND exposure to countries at a default risk.

 

[diamond]

As soon as the derivative markets crash, we're done folks.
It will be global.
It is going to happen soon.

Bush, Greenspan, Paulson nor Obama will be able to help.

<>

 

[diamond]

YouTube - Roubini:`Panic' May Force Market Shutdown P1

 

[ntalwar]

As soon as the derivative markets crash, we're done folks.
It will be global.
It is going to happen soon.

Bush, Greenspan, Paulson nor Obama will be able to help.
<>

The credit default swaps are off-market (and between two parties), and are too varied to crash at once IMO - e.g. one might be for a default of Lehman (which requires paying up), and another may be default of a firm that has been rescued or of a country.

The G20 is meeting next month, to rewrite rules of modern capitalism. I doubt they will let entire large economies go belly up, just to honor side bets between banks/insurance companies.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={3E181142-7C7B-4512-98A8-FD5E3BFE253F}

"Sarkozy was the first to make a call for a new "Bretton Woods."
Last week, he told the European Parliament that the talks must aim to "overhaul capitalism," not by "questioning the idea of a market economy" but by implementing certain principles, including subjecting all financial institutions to regulation, ensuring bonuses don't provide incentives for undue risks and re-thinking the monetary system."

 

[deep]

YouTube - Real Estate Downfall

 

[financeguy]

The Worst Is Not Behind Us - Forbes.com

--The U.S. will experience its most severe recession since World War II, much worse and longer and deeper than even the 1974-1975 and 1980-1982 recessions. The recession will continue until at least the end of 2009 for a cumulative gross domestic product drop of over 4%; the unemployment rate will likely reach 9%. The U.S. consumer is shopped-out, saving less and debt-burdened: This will be the worst consumer recession in decades.

Yahoo! Buzz--The prospect of a short and shallow six- to eight-month V-shaped recession is out of the window; a U-shaped 18- to 24-month recession is now a certainty, and the probability of a worse, multi-year L-shaped recession (as in Japan in the 1990s) is still small but rising. Even if the economy were to exit a recession by the end of 2009, the recovery could be so weak because of the impairment of the financial system and the credit mechanism that it may feel like a recession even if the economy is technically out of the recession.

--Obama will inherit an economic and financial mess worse than anything the U.S. has faced in decades: the most severe recession in 50 years; the worst financial and banking crisis since the Great Depression; a ballooning fiscal deficit that may be as high as a trillion dollars in 2009 and 2010; a huge current account deficit; a financial system that is in a severe crisis and where deleveraging is still occurring at a very rapid pace, thus causing a worsening of the credit crunch; a household sector where millions of households are insolvent, into negative equity territory and on the verge of losing their homes; a serious risk of deflation as the slack in goods, labor and commodity markets becomes deeper; the risk that we will end in a deflationary liquidity trap as the Fed is fast approaching the zero-bound constraint for the Fed funds rate; the risk of a severe debt deflation as the real value of nominal liabilities will rise, given price deflation, while the value of financial assets is still plunging.