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Old 10-19-2011, 04:42 PM   #16
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Romney has little chance to beat Obama.

I just disagree.

You can make the assertion that polls mean nothing now, but just about every poll shows Romney winning independents over Obama. McCain never had the independents in the general. Obama's approval is upside-down in every swing state, so he'll have quite a task to fix that. A year out, however, Romney looks just fine in state matchups. Maybe the White House can successfully paint him as a flip-flopper. Who knows. If the election can be framed on Obama's stewardship, as I think it will be, Romney can win.

If you want to make the Kerry comparison, that's fine, but don't forget- he was awful close to winning. About 100,000 votes in Ohio. I also refute the comparisons to McCain. McCain was a horrible candidate, and (for me, anyway) it had nothing to do with the issues. He was not passionate. He was too old. He wouldn't attack Obama. He didn't act like he really wanted to be president. I don't think you can say any of those things about Romney.

As far as Romney's apparent ceiling, I think it's normal. In an 8-way race with a quarter saying they're still undecided, I think 25% is fairly good. It was the same way in late 2003.

I don't think you can make a call one way or the other. But the signs have to be troubling for Democrats, whether it's the enthusiasm gap, the fear of African-Americans and students staying home, or any number of things. As it is now, if it's Romney vs Obama, it's a coin-flip. Going up against a historic, billion-dollar incumbent, those might be the GOP's best odds.
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Old 10-19-2011, 04:46 PM   #17
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Huntsman. He sounds like the most reasonable of the bunch and comes across as running against Obama instead of the other 7 wack jobs.
Lieberman. He sounds like the most reasonable of the bunch and comes across as running against Bush instead of the other 7 wack jobs.


(if the other side chose the candidates)
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Old 10-19-2011, 04:47 PM   #18
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Lieberman. He sounds like the most reasonable of the bunch and comes across as running against Bush instead of the other 7 wack jobs.


(if the other side chose the candidates)
Lieberman will pick whatever side gives him the most attention.


Fun fact: McCain wanted him to be his VP.
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Old 10-19-2011, 05:18 PM   #19
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he polled more than 1 % in the primaries

can you say the same for your pick, Huntsman?
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Old 10-19-2011, 05:22 PM   #20
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he polled more than 1 % in the primaries

can you say the same for your pick, Huntsman?

He's not my pick. I don't like any of them. I just think he'd be the most formidable opponent based on what he has said and how he's acted.
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Old 10-19-2011, 05:32 PM   #21
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interesting conclusion,
I am pretty certain he would be completely blown out.

I think he is the one most likely to attract the typical Obama supporter.


Just like Lieberman was the Dem that had the most appeal to Bush supporters, back in 2004.
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Old 10-19-2011, 05:43 PM   #22
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interesting conclusion,
I am pretty certain he would be completely blown out.

I think he is the one most likely to attract the typical Obama supporter.


Just like Lieberman was the Dem that had the most appeal to Bush supporters, back in 2004.
This is why I added my "*" of Ron Paul having the full backing of his party. He won't of course, so it's not going to happen.

I think Huntsman does appeal to the middle a la Obama 2008, but he doesn't offer enough conviction and difference as a Paul does.
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Old 10-19-2011, 06:56 PM   #23
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Gary Johnson
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Old 10-19-2011, 09:38 PM   #24
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None of the above, really. Mitt is the strongest contender simply because he's the most polished and can raise a lot of money, but seeing as how the base so far has tried to create support around anyone-but-Mitt, I see him having real issues getting the kind of support needed to win an election. Not to mention his lack of a strong position on... well, anything.
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Old 10-19-2011, 10:12 PM   #25
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They all have the same position: For The Bible Wall Street Tells Me So.
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Old 10-19-2011, 10:14 PM   #26
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Most of that could have been said about McCain in 2008.
The base was not with him. He was not a true conservative.

That being said, he was the best candidate. No GOP could have won in Nov 2008.

I also think the Dems/Obama will have a problem in Nov 2012, because of the economy. Not as bad as the big meltdown in Nov 2008. But enough to get people to vote 'for change'.
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Old 10-20-2011, 12:47 AM   #27
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Rick Perry
Theoretically-strong campaign took a giant shit. Still has tons of donation money to drag out the nomination fight.

Newt Gingrich
Is incapable of communicating his intellectual ideas to humans via speech or word.

Michelle Bachman
Batshit crazy bitch. Makes Hillary look like an intelligent, lovable, huggable ball of pure joy and kittens.

Mitt Romney
Slick, polished, and plays the long-run game. He is Right-Wing Obama. I guess that makes the incumbent Center-Right Obama.

Herman Cain
Black people don't like being told to pull up their boots by other black people. Just ask Bill Cosby. Nexxxxt.

Ron Paul
Too fringe (old n' studdery), media doesn't take him seriously despite many good ideas.

Rick Santorium
Too anally retentive, also idiot.

Jon Huntsbreath
Too fringe (centrist and reasonable) to satiate the crazy-ass Republican base.





Dangerous Liberal Match-Up 2012 That Worries Obama Supporters

Obummer vs. Mittens
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Old 10-20-2011, 12:52 AM   #28
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I just disagree.

You can make the assertion that polls mean nothing now, but just about every poll shows Romney winning independents over Obama. McCain never had the independents in the general. Obama's approval is upside-down in every swing state, so he'll have quite a task to fix that. A year out, however, Romney looks just fine in state matchups. Maybe the White House can successfully paint him as a flip-flopper. Who knows. If the election can be framed on Obama's stewardship, as I think it will be, Romney can win.

If you want to make the Kerry comparison, that's fine, but don't forget- he was awful close to winning. About 100,000 votes in Ohio. I also refute the comparisons to McCain. McCain was a horrible candidate, and (for me, anyway) it had nothing to do with the issues. He was not passionate. He was too old. He wouldn't attack Obama. He didn't act like he really wanted to be president. I don't think you can say any of those things about Romney.

As far as Romney's apparent ceiling, I think it's normal. In an 8-way race with a quarter saying they're still undecided, I think 25% is fairly good. It was the same way in late 2003.

I don't think you can make a call one way or the other. But the signs have to be troubling for Democrats, whether it's the enthusiasm gap, the fear of African-Americans and students staying home, or any number of things. As it is now, if it's Romney vs Obama, it's a coin-flip. Going up against a historic, billion-dollar incumbent, those might be the GOP's best odds.
I am not just talking Independents. I am talking moderate Republicans, Reagan Democrats, anyone with an inclination to vote against Obama. Included in this group in the middle 20% (if you will) are some of the most intelligent voters.

I wouldn't say polls mean "nothing" but they don't mean a whole lot right now.
I think they can shed light later in the game but it's pretty early.
But more pointedly, you can find a poll to justify a lot of different arguments.

And yeah, we can definitely say that Romney wants to be President.
He'd probably do just about anything. God knows, he'd say anything.

I won't disagree that McCain was a pretty bad candidate (i.e. picking Palin) My point with McCain was that he lost the seeming 'moderate' tag that he had always had when he contorted himself to appeal to (and turn out) the base. I believe that cost him a lot of his basic attraction to the middle. Would it have ultimately made a difference? Maybe, maybe not.

The only point about Kerry, really, was that he was assailed as some flip-flopper by Republicans and it seem to have some effect. And yeah, he did almost win. That and the homophobic folks in Ohio probably all contributed their share to that unfortunate election (I'm pretty moderate but W was a total nightmare). I wasn't trying to paint it as a the sole cause or even a large cause in that instance, just that this shit matters to a lot of moderate Republicans and Independents.

Romney hasn't hit a ceiling. Nobody has. And if we're drawing comparisons to 2007 (you said 2003, I am assuming you meant 2007) then let's look at the frontrunners in October of 2003. Fred Thompson, Rudy, hell maybe even Mitt himself. And they fell back to McCain. 1996 was also kind of a strange year. I would analogize this year to the Dems in 2004. Dean and Edwards were out front, Wes Clark jumped in as the darling of the moment and everyone turned on him when he couldn't debate. Lots of things can happen.

What we'd both agree on is that whatever the two-man race becomes by January or February, Mitt will be a finalist. Hell, I'm not even saying he can't win the nomination. He is certainly looking strong at the moment.

But he can't beat Obama because there is no real contrast.

Answer that one for me. What is the basic argument (that Romney would make) for contrast in imploring a voter to exchange Obama for Romney, - something that will appeal to moderates and Independents, who decide all of these national elections? His argument now is for Republicans, while he's trying to be slippery and retain his 'middle'. I'm saying those voters aren't that stupid. He's got archives of himself in the media taking every position.
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Old 10-20-2011, 12:58 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by Canadiens1131 View Post

Dangerous Liberal Moderate Match-Up 2012 That Worries Obama Supporters

Obummer vs. Mittens
fixed
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Old 10-20-2011, 01:15 AM   #30
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Mitt Romney
Slick, polished, and plays the long-run game. He is Right-Wing Obama. I guess that makes the incumbent Center-Right Obama.
Considering Obama is center-right, I'm not sure what a Center-Right Obama means.

And let us be clear about the fact that Barack Obama is a center-right politician. His economic policies in office, favoring financial institutions, are to the right of center.
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