No, I was referring to 2003, just for the comparison of running against an incumbent. If you go back and look at the polls, whether it's Kerry or Dean or Edwards or Clark, few polls had anybody topping 25% at this time.
Ok, gotcha. I see where you were coming from.
And I do think there is definitely an analogue to 2003 here.
For instance - in
December of 2003, Dean had (for one example) 23% in the CBS poll and Kerry was way behind in
6th place.
I didn't bother to Google any 2008 polls but IIRC, I am sure we could find polls where McCain was dragging serious ass that late in the game.
There's historical precedent...and then there is current conventional wisdom.
Could Romney win the nomination? Absolutely. But as I said, polls this early are indicative of very little.
In my opinion, it could be any number of things. I know a number of people who voted for Obama but have said they won't again, and Romney seems like a reasonable alternative. He's the best guy to attack Obama in a reasonable, legitimate way while offering solutions on how he would create jobs and cut spending. While Obama has spent his life in the public sector, Romney has spent his in the private sector. I think that's a stark contrast. If you want a more detailed explanation, maybe go spend some time in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, or any handful of states that have the likelihood of switching blue to red and see what they say.
When you look at the "Obama vs. generic Republican" polls and you see "generic" up by 4, 5, 6 points, what that says to me is that independents are, at the very least, open to listening to the other guy. Other polls have more than half saying they expect Obama to lose. Other polls have more than half saying that Obama deserves to lose. Whoever those independents are that are pushing that number over 50 percent, I don't think there's any doubt that of the eight people on stage Romney has the smarts and savvy to pull them in for good.
I don't need to tap into a disaffected Obama-supporter vein, I am one myself. But I don't live in a Purple State. I live in a Red State, surrounded by Tea Partiers and Republicans. Obama has zero chance to win my state. But living here tells you at least one thing - what real base-Republicans are looking for. Go back and see who was the first to mention Rick Perry last December. Sure, he might not get the nomination but that attraction to the
idea of him was pretty obvious to me. Probably because I am not detached from the Republican base...like even conservatives that live in Blue and Purple States. No, I haven't agreed with that Republican base in a good 15 years, but I still have some conservative values that don't involve 'Jesus issues'.
I'm not talking about "generic Republican" anyway, I'm talking specifically about Romney. The stack of negative-attack fodder against him is a mile high, much higher against Romney than any of the others. You'll see this from the Republicans over the next two months and it will cause him to bleed, politically. He's already at a tedious support as the frontrunner. Do people learn nothing from history? Ask John McCain about South Carolina in 2000. And that was completely manufactured. You don't need to manufacture anything against Romney, he's a walking, talking negative fodder-generator. And Rick Perry has a boatload of money to spend to remind people of it.
Regardless of whether Romney wins the nomination (and it seems I am about the only person around here that actually doubts it) my main point is that Romney is not going to be seen (by the majority of the middle 20%) as an alternative to Obama. And I know you disagree. We shall see.
