Ebola

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The second is to anyone who feels the need to tweet/email/call/talk to me in a “triumphant” way that you’re “vindicated” by a new case of Ebola, and that people (including me) have been “wrong” to say that Americans are at low risk for Ebola in this country. It honestly sickens me that you could feel good at all about the fact that someone got Ebola. It’s a terrible disease, and I am sure that the nurse and her family are out of their minds with worry. Empathy should be the rational response here. That said, none of these developments change the story of Ebola at all for average Americans. We need to reevaluate our protocols for healthcare workers caring for patients with Ebola, but I promise you, person-living-in-another-state-from-the-infected-person-in-this-country, you’re still ok.
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Just to be sure something from that article is seen.
 
Sr. Poop said:
Lets agree to disagree. I'm obviously out numbered here but that still doesn't change my thoughts and beliefs on the subject matter.
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But that's the problem, they are just your thoughts and ideas, based on what? Gut feeling? Because your "beliefs" clash with the science and facts.


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BVS said:
But that's the problem, they are just your thoughts and ideas, based on what? Gut feeling? Because your "beliefs" clash with the science and facts.


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They don't clash with science and facts. Your guess is as good as mine. Scientists and physicians are arguing about the same stuff. I know the science but at this point, and this is my point, THERE ARE NO FACTS... yet. And I'm not moving on it until this plays out. My opinion is just as good as your Beavis. The FACT is that the science is there but it has not taken into account for human's unpredictable behaviors and what could play out under current circumstances.

This has never happened yet. Where are your facts of science regarding the matter? Show me. Now. You can't at this point because its all opinion and belief.

Don't give me me this bull shit about science and facts Beavis because nobody knows and I'm just on the other side of the argument from you.
 
Sr. Poop said:
They don't clash with science and facts. Your guess is as good as mine. Scientists and physicians are arguing about the same stuff. I know the science but at this point, and this is my point, THERE ARE NO FACTS... yet. And I'm not moving on it until this plays out. My opinion is just as good as your Beavis.



This has NEVER HAPPENED YET!



Don't give me me this bull shit about science and facts Beavis because nobody knows and I'm just on the other side of the argument of you.
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No, what science tells us at this point is that there are only a few ways to catch this virus; direct contact with fluids. You took your opinion a leap forward saying it's "not hard at all" to catch but with nothing to back it up. You also say the nurse followed all protocol, but that is not fact. You said "hundreds of thousands", based on absolutely nothing.


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BVS said:
No, what science tells us at this point is that there are only a few ways to catch this virus; direct contact with fluids. You took your opinion a leap forward saying it's "easy" to catch but with nothing to back it up. You also say the nurse followed all protocol, but that is not fact. You said "hundreds of thousands", based on absolutely nothing.


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Yes, hundreds of thousands will contract it. In African, Europe, and other countries. I don't believe that this will kills mass populations in the U.S. or Canada but I do think many people don't fully or truly understand this virus because we haven't dealt with it in this situation. This will kill hundreds of thousands by the time we have things under control.

In terms of contracting this virus... Ebola is present in: Blood, urine, tears, sweat, saliva, semen (for up to 3 months after contraction), mucus, and feces. Yes, it is contracted by direct contact through, open soars, the eyes, the nose, the mouth and throat, and reproductive organs. The virus can also stay alive for hours in a dry state but if left in a wet state can survive for days. If this isn't an easy to contract virus then I have no fucking clue what easy means... Air born? Then fact: if it is present in saliva or mucus then that means that there is an element of being able to contract it via the air.

All you need to do is touch something like a counter top and you can get it. Yes it is more difficult to contract then some other viruses but its much easier than you might think.

I have no idea what the nurse did but I have a feeling that there was a lot of "protocol" broken by many people as many people had no fucking clue as to what they were doing and not to their fault but just a system that is not fully prepared to handle these situations.

Look... do I think this is going to wipe out a third of the population like the plague? No, I don't. Is it going to be as deadly as the Spanish Flu? No, I don't but I do believe that the world wide mortality rate will be quite high and will be a small glimpse into what is right around the corner if we continue to fuck up our planet like we have over the past 3 to 4 decades.
 
pretty good graph

africa_deaths.png


ORIGINAL ARTICLE - New England Journal of Medicine
Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections
WHO Ebola Response Team
September 23, 2014DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1411100

BACKGROUND
On March 23, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea. On August 8, the WHO declared the epidemic to be a “public health emergency of international concern.”
Full Text of Background...
METHODS
By September 14, 2014, a total of 4507 probable and confirmed cases, including 2296 deaths from EVD (Zaire species) had been reported from five countries in West Africa — Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. We analyzed a detailed subset of data on 3343 confirmed and 667 probable Ebola cases collected in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone as of September 14.
Full Text of Methods...
RESULTS
The majority of patients are 15 to 44 years of age (49.9% male), and we estimate that the case fatality rate is 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 73) among persons with known clinical outcome of infection. The course of infection, including signs and symptoms, incubation period (11.4 days), and serial interval (15.3 days), is similar to that reported in previous outbreaks of EVD. On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0 ) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone. Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total.
Full Text of Results...
CONCLUSIONS
These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from EVD are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months.
 
deep said:
wow, even the World Health Organization is drinking the Poop kool-aid

WHO: Ebola Threatens States, Societies in W. Africa
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Key part of that article is the phrase "in West Africa." This is not a threat to the US other than a few isolated cases. There will probably be more European cases simply because of Europe's proximity to Africa. But there will be 10s of cases in the US and Europe, not hundreds of thousands.


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Sr. Poop said:
Yes, hundreds of thousands will contract it. In African, Europe, and other countries. I don't believe that this will kills mass populations in the U.S. or Canada but I do think many people don't fully or truly understand this virus because we haven't dealt with it in this situation. This will kill hundreds of thousands by the time we have things under control.



In terms of contracting this virus... Ebola is present in: Blood, urine, tears, sweat, saliva, semen (for up to 3 months after contraction), mucus, and feces. Yes, it is contracted by direct contact through, open soars, the eyes, the nose, the mouth and throat, and reproductive organs. The virus can also stay alive for hours in a dry state but if left in a wet state can survive for days. If this isn't an easy to contract virus then I have no fucking clue what easy means... Air born? Then fact: if it is present in saliva or mucus then that means that there is an element of being able to contract it via the air.



All you need to do is touch something like a counter top and you can get it. Yes it is more difficult to contract then some other viruses but its much easier than you might think.



I have no idea what the nurse did but I have a feeling that there was a lot of "protocol" broken by many people as many people had no fucking clue as to what they were doing and not to their fault but just a system that is not fully prepared to handle these situations.
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Your 3 months numbers seems to be off according to most reputable sources, it's closer to 7 weeks.

Can you post a source citing your info regarding the survival rate outside the body in "dry" state vs "wet" state?


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BVS said:
Your 3 months numbers seems to be off according to most reputable sources, it's closer to 7 weeks.

Can you post a source citing your info regarding the survival rate outside the body in "dry" state vs "wet" state?


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Here is one to start: The Center's For Disease Control

Q&As on Transmission | Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever | CDC

"How long does Ebola live outside the body?
Ebola is killed with hospital-grade disinfectants (such as household bleach). Ebola on dried on surfaces such as doorknobs and countertops can survive for several hours; however, virus in body fluids (such as blood) can survive up to several days at room temperature."

"If someone survives Ebola, can he or she still spread the virus?
Once someone recovers from Ebola, they can no longer spread the virus. However, Ebola virus has been found in semen for up to 3 months. People who recover from Ebola are advised to abstain from sex or use condoms for 3 months."
 
nbelcik said:
Key part of that article is the phrase "in West Africa." This is not a threat to the US other than a few isolated cases. There will probably be more European cases simply because of Europe's proximity to Africa. But there will be 10s of cases in the US and Europe, not hundreds of thousands.

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Click to expand...

You said it would never turn into a "Global Pandemic" with hundreds of thousands which I do agree with.

So... No, I don't think there will be hundreds thousands in the U.S. but I do believe that hundreds of thousands will become infected and/or die. May be not in the pandemic sense but Africa may go up in flames in front of our eyes.

But I also think if not controlled right you will see hundreds/potentially thousands infected in North America because all hospitals are not equipped to handle this... outside of the 4 hospitals (Montana, Nebraska, Maryland, and Georgia) in the U.S. that are.
 
Sr. Poop said:
Here is one to start: The Center's For Disease Control

Q&As on Transmission | Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever | CDC

"How long does Ebola live outside the body?
Ebola is killed with hospital-grade disinfectants (such as household bleach). Ebola on dried on surfaces such as doorknobs and countertops can survive for several hours; however, virus in body fluids (such as blood) can survive up to several days at room temperature."
Click to expand...


This doesn't match up or justify your post. You know that, right?



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BVS said:
This doesn't match up or justify your post. You know that, right?



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Click to expand...


Ok dude... Whatever you think


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It's not necessarily the idea of ebola that scares me so much as the stupidity inherent in human beings. So there's not a second health worker with ebola? And she traveled on a commercial flight with 100+ other people? :doh:

It seems like this might turn out OK, since she was pre-symptoms, but seriously. I don't care whose wedding it is. Think about the millions of other people in this country before you do something so stupidly selfish.
 
I think the moral of this story is there are many hospitals not as prepared as we'd like. What I'd like to see is the moment someone is diagnosed, the CDC or some other government agency, sends an expert to that hospital to supervise the treatment. This way the practitioners have someone who knows what they are doing to go to for advice.

Dallas Presbyterian given the large population of Liberians in the Dallas metro area, should have been more prepared than they were.
 
It sounds like that's the plan now. Anyone else comes up with Ebola, the CDC is sending people to that place to lock that shit down.
 
bono_212 said:
It seems like this might turn out OK, since she was pre-symptoms, but seriously. I don't care whose wedding it is. Think about the millions of other people in this country before you do something so stupidly selfish.
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a little more information to consider


A Dallas nurse who took a commercial flight from Cleveland hours before reporting symptoms of Ebola says that the Center for Disease Control and Prevention told her it was okay to fly.

Amber Vinson helped treat Thomas Eric Duncan, the Liberian man who died in Dallas of the Ebola virus earlier this month. On Wednesday, the CDC announced that she had contracted the virus as well. The CDC also revealed that she had taken a flight to Dallas on Monday, though it said that it was extremely unlikely that any other passengers were exposed.

Vinson told CBS Dallas Fort Worth that she was feeling ill before boarding her flight. She had a low grade fever, but she said that officials told her it was okay to get on the plane. Vinson told CBS that she called the CDC several times with concerns.
Click to expand...
 
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