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Old 09-04-2009, 10:15 AM   #1
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Democratic Advantage in Party Affiliation Shrinks

September 2, 2009

Democratic Advantage in Party Affiliation Shrinks
Gap now 5 points, down from 17 in January

by Jeffrey M. Jones

PRINCETON, NJ -- In August, an average of 45% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned to the Democratic Party, while 40% identified as Republicans or leaned to the Republican Party. This 5-point advantage represents a decided narrowing of the gap between the parties from the 17-point Democratic advantage in January.

These results are based on aggregated data from Gallup Daily tracking, consisting of roughly 30,000 interviews with U.S. adults each month. Gallup has observed a similar trend of a declining Democratic advantage in party identification in its 2009 cross-sectional surveys.

The total of 45% current Democratic support derives from 34% of Americans who identify as Democrats and 11% who identify as independents but say they lean to the Democratic Party. The Republican Party's 40% support total includes 28% Republican identifiers and 12% Republican-leaning independents.

Democratic Advantage in Party Affiliation Shrinks
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Old 09-04-2009, 10:52 AM   #2
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100% of Americans identify as independents
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Old 09-04-2009, 05:00 PM   #3
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In August, an average of 45% of Americans identified as Democrats
Which begs the question -- what % of Democrats identify themselves as Americans?

(I kid my wealth-sharin', jihad-denyin', socialized medicine-envyin', Hubby Hubby eatin', MSNBC-watchin', torture-confused, Euro-wannabe friends on the Left)
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Old 09-04-2009, 05:54 PM   #4
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Old 09-04-2009, 06:10 PM   #5
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I think it shows the effect of George W. Bush causing people to stop identifying with the conservatives is wearing off
as was to be expected
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Old 09-04-2009, 07:13 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Salome View Post
I think it shows the effect of George W. Bush causing people to stop identifying with the conservatives is wearing off
as was to be expected
This.


...and also some newly minted racists since January.
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Old 09-05-2009, 11:11 PM   #7
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I think it shows the effect of George W. Bush causing people to stop identifying with the conservatives is wearing off
as was to be expected
Highly unlikely considering that Bush was President for 8 years and popularly re-elected by the first majority since 1988, and only left office 7 months ago.

The change in the percentage's of party affiliation is similar to the downward trend that Obama's approval has taken since coming to office.

There is a new kid in town who likes to take credit for things started under Bush that are going well, while blaming anything that is not going well on the "previous administration".
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Old 09-06-2009, 12:55 AM   #8
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There is a new kid in town who likes to take credit for things started under Bush that are going well
Any example?
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Old 09-06-2009, 09:23 AM   #9
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torture-confused


i agree with all of your pejoratives except for this one.

it is *you* people who have obfuscated, on paper and in your minds, what torture actually is.

perhaps it could be like A Time To Kill. we'll ask you to close your eyes and instead of thinking of a smelly, hairy, middle eastern man getting waterboarded, think of a pretty white lady.
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Old 09-06-2009, 12:25 PM   #10
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Well it should shrink since almost all the Democrats are behaving like Republicans and pursuing Republican-like policies.

I feel sorry for the progressives in the US, they never have any real options.
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Old 09-06-2009, 04:11 PM   #11
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I feel sorry for the progressives in the US, they never have any real options.
well in 2012 they can teach everyone a big lesson and vote for Ralph Nader (worked like charm in 2000)

and then we will get 8 years with Dick Cheney as President.

don't laugh, - he is considering it, and if Obama loses Afghanistan and there is an attack on the U S because Obama is soft on terror - Cheney could slide in.
I don't think it is really likely,

but disgruntled progressives (not voting) and swayed independents easily could put the GOP in the 2012 win column.
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Old 09-06-2009, 04:23 PM   #12
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Dick Cheney as President.

don't laugh, - he is considering it, and if Obama loses Afghanistan and there is an attack on the U S because Obama is soft on terror - Cheney could slide in.
I don't think it is really likely,

but disgruntled progressives (not voting) and swayed independents easily could put the GOP in the 2012 win column.
A lot could happen between now and then.

But I think it would take raging inflation and a prolonged stock market downturn, along with major foreign policy failures...before Obama could lose to Cheney or any Republican out there today.
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Old 09-06-2009, 04:44 PM   #13
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I will go on the record now with:

1. prolonged bad economy - with rising - out of control national debt, there is a 30-40% chance we may be bouncing along the bottom but no quick fix, a 50% chance of more pain with our current national unemployment in the 9-11 % range.

2. Afghanistan is as good as it is going to get right now.
Things will continue to deteriorate. Karzai will remain in office but his legitimacy will be challenged, much like the guy in Iran. More troops will die. The movement to get out will grow, to where more people want us out than want us in.
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Old 09-06-2009, 05:05 PM   #14
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I will go on the record now with:

2. Afghanistan is as good as it is going to get right now.
Things will continue to deteriorate. Karzai will remain in office but his legitimacy will be challenged, much like the guy in Iran. More troops will die. The movement to get out will grow, to where more people want us out than want us in.
I agree. But I think in a presidential race Obama could pretty easily do an 'about face' on his 04 campaign rhetoric about Afghanistan being the 'right' war...and blame Bush for 8 years of underfunding and undermanning the fight there. Which is probably true.

What also is probably true is the country doesn't have the culture, the infrastructure, educated population, or natural resources to make it a viable place for nation-building or pacification. Under Bush or Obama.

Or the British. Or the Soviets. (from years gone by)
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Old 09-06-2009, 05:35 PM   #15
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Any example?
Iraq policy, much of the policy in Afganstan as well as Pakistan, and general defense policy. Lets not forget that after all the criticism of the Bush administration and Republicans on these issues, Barack Obama kept Bush's Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, on the job. When was the last time a new President from the opposing party kept the previous administrations Secretary Of Defense on the job?
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