Canadian politics maybe getting interesting!

[purpleoscar]

Just because you're in the bastion of Conservatism doesn't mean that much of the rest of the country isn't left. I'm not sure how old you are or how long you've lived here (you've mentioned your father is an immigrant, I'm not sure if you are too?) but this country has been mainly left for a long time, and will continue to be. Further, the economics you preach, and the sources you trot out on a regular basis are not the definitive answer to the entire profession, no matter how much you may like to pretend they are. People should save? Yeah, that's common sense. But beyond that, you're guessing, like a lot of other people. It's laughable that you think you have all the answers to the economic problems currently facing most nations in the world. You're offering opinions, and nothing more.

I look at the history of Keynesian economics and then I infer from that. Stimulus packages are short-term. Keynesian economics is popular because economists need jobs beyond just teaching, and politicians usually look to Keynesians to increase government intervention. Keynes believed that once the debt was incurred then during the next boom the government should then pay it back. This can happen but it usually is unpopular and requires spending cuts. Harper only wanted to do a little stimulus because what's happening in the U.S. is not working.

The reason for stimulus is to encourage people to spend with low interest rates and forcing tax dollars (or debt/future tax dollars) to go to infrastructure expenses to create make work jobs. If you have good finances it doesn't really matter, but if you have tons of debt I don't see how listening to economists and spending more from borrowing would help you.

At least you get the savings idea. The savings rate is historically low so at least some people like you get it.

Yes I am aware that the east is more left-wing but I think I'm as human as anyone in the east so I feel that what works for healthy individuals here works in other countries let alone other regions.

Ireland used to be a third world country but not anymore.

 

[anitram]

Harper only wanted to do a little stimulus because what's happening in the U.S. is not working.

Harper actually cooked the books in this budget update. They are going to get what, $4 billion dollars from the sale of assets that they haven't yet identified? That's so outrageous that a 10th grade business student should laugh at them. Nevermind their oil profits projections that were completely out of line with that of financial institutions and in fact were off by something like $10-15/barrel. Just absurd, trying to actually project a surplus! Aren't you an accountant? This should make your blood boil.

Yes I am aware that the east is more left-wing but I think I'm as human as anyone in the east so I feel that what works for healthy individuals here works in other countries let alone other regions.

Yeah well, the rest of the country disagrees with you. And we're not a third world country by any means (nor are many leftist European nations which go against just about every principle that you advocate).

 

[love_u2_adam]

The whole country doesn't disagree with us. If we look at facts and the future there wont be anything left if they screw over alberta. We bring in so much revenue. You don't understand until you live here.

I don't know why you're waving unless you like the government spending your money. At least in Alberta they try and let us keep more of what we make.

No PST

 

[BoMac]

The whole country doesn't disagree with us. If we look at facts and the future there wont be anything left if they screw over alberta. We bring in so much revenue. You don't understand until you live here.



No PST

You want to work in the oil industry? That's good. The fact of the matter is that Alberta's days as the primary revenue stream of the country are slowly coming to an end.

And this is not only due to the drop in oil prices. For one, the new royalty scheme that Premier Stelmach is pushing through on Jan. 1 is encouraging investment and exploration out of the province and into northeastern B.C. and Saskatchewan. The royalty rollback announced two weeks ago—in the face of intense pressure from Big Oil, I might add— has done little to stem the tide, at least initially. The numbers that oil industry organizations recently released certainly support that. And the fact that the province is now projecting a $2 billion surplus instead of the $8.5 billion projected only a few months ago is also an indication that things are slowly getting worse.

In addition, the agriculture and forestry industries are ailing, some of it due to circumstances beyond their control, such as the pine beetle, but also due to the slowdown south of the border.

My point is, don't get too used to being thought of as the gravy train of the country. Even a province like Newfoundland is pulling in the big money now.

 

[anitram]

My point is, don't get too used to being thought of as the gravy train of the country.

All it will take is for the first affordable and efficient alternate energy vehicle to set Alberta on the road to bankruptcy.

The biggest irony is when an Albertan starts talking about taking their toys and going home while in the same breath bashing Quebec for behaving exactly the same way.

 

[love_u2_adam]

Well only time can tell my fellow Canadians.
But the country did choose a conservative government... So i find it unfair to have another election and i find it very childish with what the opposition is doing.

 

[A_Wanderer]

All it will take is for the first affordable and efficient alternate energy vehicle to set Alberta on the road to bankruptcy.

The biggest irony is when an Albertan starts talking about taking their toys and going home while in the same breath bashing Quebec for behaving exactly the same way.

So, you're not going to need chemicals and plastics in the future?

 

[anitram]

So, you're not going to need chemicals and plastics in the future?

That isn't the point. The Alberta provincial government has basically done nothing to improve infrastructure or many other things while they've been sitting on this surplus, instead choosing to cut taxes and return $ to people in (obviously) popular province-wide profit sharing programs. And this will just become a more pronounced problem that compounds itself as the oil profits dissipate in decades to come - which they obviously and clearly will since this is not a renewable resource.

And as for the "country" voting for Harper - yeah, 37% of it did. The other 63% said no thanks.

 

[anitram]

But the country did choose a conservative government... So i find it unfair to have another election

We're not having another election.

 

[A_Wanderer]

That isn't the point. The Alberta provincial government has basically done nothing to improve infrastructure or many other things while they've been sitting on this surplus, instead choosing to cut taxes and return $ to people in (obviously) popular province-wide profit sharing programs. And this will just become a more pronounced problem that compounds itself as the oil profits dissipate in decades to come - which they obviously and clearly will since this is not a renewable resource.

And as for the "country" voting for Harper - yeah, 37% of it did. The other 63% said no thanks.

The profits may dissipate, but only after the price experiences some decent highs.

 

[anitram]

The profits may dissipate, but only after the price experiences some decent highs.

You have to remember that the profits in Alberta are not like the profits in Saudi due to the huge cost of extracting the oil out of the oil sands. Since most of the oil is in this state, the cost/barrel must be VERY high in order to actually see major profits. As things stand right now, profits are low which is why Alberta's own budget surplus projection has been decreased by more than four-fold.

 

[VintagePunk]

I read somewhere that the price per barrel has to be either $70 or $80 for Alaska to operate at a surplus. Fortunately for her, the price was high enough during the earlier part of the year that they've got a bit of a cushion, but things could be very different next year for the state.

I wonder what that number is for Alberta. Does anyone know?

 

[anitram]

Goldman Sachs says it's $70. Which is why you are seeing a problem now.

Nevermind that extraction from oil sands contributes anywhere from 2.5-8 more pollution than regular oil extraction, which in itself is a terrible source of pollution. Alberta's oil companies should be heavily taxed to compensate for this, but heaven forbid anybody mentions it.

 

[purpleoscar]

Harper actually cooked the books in this budget update. They are going to get what, $4 billion dollars from the sale of assets that they haven't yet identified? That's so outrageous that a 10th grade business student should laugh at them. Nevermind their oil profits projections that were completely out of line with that of financial institutions and in fact were off by something like $10-15/barrel. Just absurd, trying to actually project a surplus! Aren't you an accountant? This should make your blood boil.

When you know liberals are going to attack you for deficit spending what do you do? Lay back and do nothing? He wanted surpluses so they wouldn't have ammunition to attack him. His failed manuver in cutting pork barrel spending on political campaigns opened the door for the coalition but something eventually would cause that sometime or another. It's a minority government.

[/QUOTE]Yeah well, the rest of the country disagrees with you. And we're not a third world country by any means (nor are many leftist European nations which go against just about every principle that you advocate).[/QUOTE]

That's true. That's why they aren't as successful as they could be. Not everyone can work in the government and partake of those benefits. Maybe you're right. I should quit my private sector job and just join the government ASAP and start getting vested in a nice pension and flip the bird to the taxpayer. Then the people who work in the private sector with no union who have to pay for those benefits....Well too bad for them. They can go to hell.

It shows that if you are not in power or not an authority figure you can be ignored. When authority figures fail at the bailout like the U.S. then what will the followers do?

BTW there are conservatives in Canada and Europe and their presence keeps the socialists alligators from not biting more than they can chew. If my principles are so crappy why not have the government just take over the means of production?

Evenutually the Bloc will stab the liberals in the back. As soon as they overreach and ask for things liberals don't want it will be over. Ignatieff will try and look like the hero and save the day, and the Conservatives will be enticed to go left since it's mainly someone elses taxes they are spending so why fight? Politicians have got to eat too.

 

[purpleoscar]

Goldman Sachs says it's $70. Which is why you are seeing a problem now.

Nevermind that extraction from oil sands contributes anywhere from 2.5-8 more pollution than regular oil extraction, which in itself is a terrible source of pollution. Alberta's oil companies should be heavily taxed to compensate for this, but heaven forbid anybody mentions it.

Good idea! Next time the east wants transfer payments from Alberta they can eat shit.

 

[BoMac]

That's true. That's why they aren't as successful as they could be. Not everyone can work in the government and partake of those benefits. Maybe you're right. I should quit my private sector job and just join the government ASAP and start getting vested in a nice pension and flip the bird to the taxpayer. Then the people who work in the private sector with no union who have to pay for those benefits....Well too bad for them. They can go to hell.

Question: have you EVER been out east for longer than, say, a few days? Do you have any friends from eastern provinces at all?

I ask this because you've made similar statements in the past such as the one quoted. Where do you get off making assumptions about the way we live out east? Seriously. Maybe as a whole, provinces such as Quebec and Ontario are not as successful as Alberta is, or was, but individually there are many, many, many successful people. On the flip side, just because Alberta was raking in millions due to the resource boom, it doesn't mean that everyone is well-off. Homelessness and poverty are still very real issues in Alberta's main centres.

And not everyone, I repeat, NOT EVERYONE outside Alberta works in government. What makes you say such things? I was born and raised in the east, have friends across the country, and not one person that I know has a government job. They all, myself included, work in the private sector.

I think you've lost perspective on reality, and the reality of how people live outside of Alberta. It's quite amusing, actually.

 

[boosterjuice]

I read somewhere that the price per barrel has to be either $70 or $80 for Alaska to operate at a surplus. Fortunately for her, the price was high enough during the earlier part of the year that they've got a bit of a cushion, but things could be very different next year for the state.

I wonder what that number is for Alberta. Does anyone know?

Oil companies here in Alberta turn a profit at $15/barrel. Make no mistake, the oil companies are still making a healthy profit. The only sector that will get temporary hurt in Alberta will be the oil service sector as some the expansion projects have been put on HOLD (not cancelled).

 

[VintagePunk]

Good idea! Next time the east wants transfer payments from Alberta they can eat shit.

Because Alberta has always been in the midst of this economic boom, and has never taken a thing from the federal government, right?

You guys are so altruistic. Thanks!

 

[VintagePunk]

Oil companies here in Alberta turn a profit at $15/barrel. Make no mistake, the oil companies are still making a healthy profit. The only sector that will get temporary hurt in Alberta will be the oil service sector as some the expansion projects have been put on HOLD (not cancelled).

Um, not really sure where you got that number from, because the break even number I've seen from several sources today seems to be $33/barrel.

Oil Break-Even Prices:

Bahrain 40
Kuwait 17
Saudi Arabia 30
U.A.E. 25
Oman 40
Qatar 30
Canada's oil sands 33

http://www.oil-price.net/


I'm assuming that's the break even point for oil companies, and that it would take considerably higher prices for the province to continue operating at a surplus.

 

[BoMac]

Um, not really sure where you got that number from, because the break even number I've seen from several sources today seems to be $33/barrel.

Oil Break-Even Prices:

Bahrain 40
Kuwait 17
Saudi Arabia 30
U.A.E. 25
Oman 40
Qatar 30
Canada's oil sands 33

Crude Oil Price Forecast


I'm assuming that's the break even point for oil companies, and that it would take considerably higher prices for the province to continue operating at a surplus.

From the Financial Post two months ago:

High costs squeeze oil sands

Break-even price jumps 31%
Claudia Cattaneo, Financial Post Published: Friday, September 05, 2008

CNS
CALGARY -- As oil backpedalled again yesterday to a five-month low, oil sands projects are getting increasingly squeezed as soaring costs boost the break-even price.

A new report found the break-even oil price required by new mining projects in the oil sands has jumped to $85 a barrel, an increase of $20 or 31% in barely more than a year.

In the report, National Bank Financial senior vice-president Peter Ogden said the break-even price -- which assumes an 8% rate of return, capital costs of $120,000 per flowing barrel and operating costs of $27 a barrel -- has crept up because of climbing labour and material costs and higher royalties in Alberta under a new fiscal regime beginning in January.

The break-even price in May, 2007, was $65 a barrel, assuming an 8% rate of return, capital costs of $100,000 per flowing barrel and operating costs of $20.50 a barrel.

Still, Mr. Ogden said he doesn't expect project cancellations just yet. "As the oil price does fall, you would expect the more marginal projects to be deferred, which would bring down construction costs, and therefore make the better projects more profitable."

Unless that happens, Mr. Ogden sees capital costs for mining projects trending even higher, to the range of $125,000 to $160,000 per flowing barrel.

Anticipating such deferrals, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers recently reduced its expectations for future oil sands production. The group now expects volumes to increase to 3.5 million barrels a day in 2020, 11.5% less than its forecast last year.

The price of crude fell US$1.46 a barrel in New York yesterday, settling at US$107.89, as the euro rose against the dollar, reducing the attractiveness of oil as an inflation hedge. Crude has declined 27% since reaching a record of $147.27 on July 11.

The break-even price for oil sands projects that use steam-assisted gravity-drainage technology has increased more modestly -- by $12 a barrel, or 21%, since May, 2007 -- to $70 a barrel, Mr. Ogden found.

Such thermal projects can make money at lower oil prices because they require less investment up front. The $70 break even price assumes an 8% rate of return, capital costs of $100,000 per flowing barrel and operating costs of $21 a barrel.

In last year's estimate, the break-even price was based on capital costs of $80,000 per flowing barrel and operating costs of $22 a barrel.

Despite perceptions that oil sands companies make lots of cash, the report suggests returns remain skinny, or in the 9% to 11% range for most projects. Still, he said companies are moving forward on expectations that oil prices will be higher, improving profitability.

Mr. Ogden predicted an increase in merger-and-acquisition activity, since lower oil prices have dampened the share prices of oil and gas companies to the cheapest level in two years, making purchases attractive.

He highlighted OPTI Canada Inc., UTS Energy Corp. and EnCana Corp.' s oil company spinoff as oil sands companies "with a target on their back."

 

[anitram]

That's true. That's why they aren't as successful as they could be. Not everyone can work in the government and partake of those benefits. Maybe you're right. I should quit my private sector job and just join the government ASAP and start getting vested in a nice pension and flip the bird to the taxpayer. Then the people who work in the private sector with no union who have to pay for those benefits....Well too bad for them. They can go to hell.

What the hell are you talking about?

Everybody east of Alberta isn't as successful as they could be? We all work for the government? HELLO!!

Must be all those people out there on Bay Street that you're referring to.

 

[VintagePunk]

From the Financial Post two months ago:

Wow. I have to assume that given the falling prices and the general economic decline since then, things are even worse now. Thanks for posting.

 

[anitram]

Yes, Goldman Sachs has maintained for a while now that it's $70.

So everybody how are your government jobs treating you today? I hope none of you are working to your full potential!!

 

[AliEnvy]

With all the bureaucratic nonsense I deal with on a daily basis with the occasional escape to goof off and post here, I might as well be in government.

At least I'm in the centre of the universe.

 

[boosterjuice]

Um, not really sure where you got that number from, because the break even number I've seen from several sources today seems to be $33/barrel.

Oil Break-Even Prices:

Bahrain 40
Kuwait 17
Saudi Arabia 30
U.A.E. 25
Oman 40
Qatar 30
Canada's oil sands 33

Crude Oil Price Forecast


I'm assuming that's the break even point for oil companies, and that it would take considerably higher prices for the province to continue operating at a surplus.

I was referring to variable cost break even. $15/barrel figure comes from Encana engineers who I'm frequently in discussions with. Capital break even and variable break even are different. IE, capital break even, they are including all the infrastructure expenses into the equation where as variable break even calculates ONLY the costs directly associated with extraction. IE, if you have lemonade stand business, your variable costs would be water, lemons, labour, disposable cups, and amortization of equipment. The fixed costs would be the chairs, table, mixing equipment. etc... you get the point.

 

[BVS]

Question: have you EVER been out east for longer than, say, a few days? Do you have any friends from eastern provinces at all?

I ask this because you've made similar statements in the past such as the one quoted. Where do you get off making assumptions about the way we live out east? Seriously. Maybe as a whole, provinces such as Quebec and Ontario are not as successful as Alberta is, or was, but individually there are many, many, many successful people. On the flip side, just because Alberta was raking in millions due to the resource boom, it doesn't mean that everyone is well-off. Homelessness and poverty are still very real issues in Alberta's main centres.

And not everyone, I repeat, NOT EVERYONE outside Alberta works in government. What makes you say such things? I was born and raised in the east, have friends across the country, and not one person that I know has a government job. They all, myself included, work in the private sector.

I think you've lost perspective on reality, and the reality of how people live outside of Alberta. It's quite amusing, actually.

I'm not sure if he's ever known reality. He seems to make A LOT of assumptions about places, people, or anything really outside his little realm.

I'd be interested to see what his real life experience has been outside Alberta, if any...

 

[purpleoscar]

What the hell are you talking about?

Everybody east of Alberta isn't as successful as they could be? We all work for the government? HELLO!!

Must be all those people out there on Bay Street that you're referring to.

Then it makes less sense to root for the left if you don't benefit from it. The poor will always be asking for more money from programs because much of the money goes to bureaucrats. If the money was "enough" nobody would work.

 

[BVS]

Then it makes less sense to root for the left if you don't benefit from it.

See, this is what you will never understand. In all your generalizations, and all your stereotypes, and all of your pscho-babble, you will probably never understand, some of us will vote with our conscience. And you will always vote for YOUR self interest.

But at least you are honest about it.

 

[purpleoscar]

I'm not sure if he's ever known reality. He seems to make A LOT of assumptions about places, people, or anything really outside his little realm.

I'd be interested to see what his real life experience has been outside Alberta, if any...

Yeah like Alberta has never had recessions. Balancing budgets and lowering taxes works the same everywhere. The oil simply made the results happen faster but they wouldn't have happened if we kept the 30 billion in debt.

But hey I'm in a la la land in perfect Alberta.


It's not about feeling sorry for yourself. It's about running your own life instead of someone else. Those values are what made Alberta good.

I know easterners. They come out west to get jobs and they have a sense of arrogance and entitlement that westerners find bizzare. I'm not the only one who feels that way. Even some easterners admit it. That's why they left.

 

[purpleoscar]

Question: have you EVER been out east for longer than, say, a few days? Do you have any friends from eastern provinces at all?

I ask this because you've made similar statements in the past such as the one quoted. Where do you get off making assumptions about the way we live out east? Seriously. Maybe as a whole, provinces such as Quebec and Ontario are not as successful as Alberta is, or was, but individually there are many, many, many successful people. On the flip side, just because Alberta was raking in millions due to the resource boom, it doesn't mean that everyone is well-off. Homelessness and poverty are still very real issues in Alberta's main centres.

And not everyone, I repeat, NOT EVERYONE outside Alberta works in government. What makes you say such things? I was born and raised in the east, have friends across the country, and not one person that I know has a government job. They all, myself included, work in the private sector.

I think you've lost perspective on reality, and the reality of how people live outside of Alberta. It's quite amusing, actually.

I never said everyone works for government. My statements are a joke illustrating how government owns over 40% of the GDP yet less than 40% of the population works there. It's nice to have those entitlements and eventually people want to go there. We don't have to worry about aristocracy. We have a bureaucracy. These entitlements cost and make it harder for people in the private sector to save. The taxes in Ontario and especially in Quebec are too high.

Read my response to BVS on easterners.

Are you kidding me? There are plenty of generalized statements that Albertans have to take from the east from the politicians themselves like Trudeau. Many easterners look at us as redneck, cowboy hat wearing, oil shakes. We have cities here too and we have other industries and there are even liberals here. Not all of us are rich. Some people handle their finances better than others. Coming to Alberta is not enough. People have to work and save. Seeing that there are maybe 40 years of work in your life and if you want a car, house, kids and retirement more taxes make it harder. Why do you think businesses want to move here?

Anyways why would people in the private sector want to plow more money in the Government when the government already owns so much. Don't you want to have a nice net pay so you can control your life and dreams? Government workers can spend ALL the money they have on lifestyle and rely on pensions the rest of us pay. The NDP doesn't think that 40% of the GDP is enough. The NDP doesn't know how wealth is created.