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Old 12-03-2008, 01:31 PM   #106
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Originally Posted by purpleoscar View Post
That's true. That's why they aren't as successful as they could be. Not everyone can work in the government and partake of those benefits. Maybe you're right. I should quit my private sector job and just join the government ASAP and start getting vested in a nice pension and flip the bird to the taxpayer. Then the people who work in the private sector with no union who have to pay for those benefits....Well too bad for them. They can go to hell.
Question: have you EVER been out east for longer than, say, a few days? Do you have any friends from eastern provinces at all?

I ask this because you've made similar statements in the past such as the one quoted. Where do you get off making assumptions about the way we live out east? Seriously. Maybe as a whole, provinces such as Quebec and Ontario are not as successful as Alberta is, or was, but individually there are many, many, many successful people. On the flip side, just because Alberta was raking in millions due to the resource boom, it doesn't mean that everyone is well-off. Homelessness and poverty are still very real issues in Alberta's main centres.

And not everyone, I repeat, NOT EVERYONE outside Alberta works in government. What makes you say such things? I was born and raised in the east, have friends across the country, and not one person that I know has a government job. They all, myself included, work in the private sector.

I think you've lost perspective on reality, and the reality of how people live outside of Alberta. It's quite amusing, actually.
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Old 12-03-2008, 01:36 PM   #107
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I read somewhere that the price per barrel has to be either $70 or $80 for Alaska to operate at a surplus. Fortunately for her, the price was high enough during the earlier part of the year that they've got a bit of a cushion, but things could be very different next year for the state.

I wonder what that number is for Alberta. Does anyone know?

Oil companies here in Alberta turn a profit at $15/barrel. Make no mistake, the oil companies are still making a healthy profit. The only sector that will get temporary hurt in Alberta will be the oil service sector as some the expansion projects have been put on HOLD (not cancelled).
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Old 12-03-2008, 01:36 PM   #108
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Good idea! Next time the east wants transfer payments from Alberta they can eat shit.
Because Alberta has always been in the midst of this economic boom, and has never taken a thing from the federal government, right?

You guys are so altruistic. Thanks!
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Old 12-03-2008, 01:47 PM   #109
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Oil companies here in Alberta turn a profit at $15/barrel. Make no mistake, the oil companies are still making a healthy profit. The only sector that will get temporary hurt in Alberta will be the oil service sector as some the expansion projects have been put on HOLD (not cancelled).
Um, not really sure where you got that number from, because the break even number I've seen from several sources today seems to be $33/barrel.

Oil Break-Even Prices:

Bahrain 40
Kuwait 17
Saudi Arabia 30
U.A.E. 25
Oman 40
Qatar 30
Canada's oil sands 33

http://www.oil-price.net/


I'm assuming that's the break even point for oil companies, and that it would take considerably higher prices for the province to continue operating at a surplus.
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Old 12-03-2008, 02:52 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by VintagePunk View Post
Um, not really sure where you got that number from, because the break even number I've seen from several sources today seems to be $33/barrel.

Oil Break-Even Prices:

Bahrain 40
Kuwait 17
Saudi Arabia 30
U.A.E. 25
Oman 40
Qatar 30
Canada's oil sands 33

Crude Oil Price Forecast


I'm assuming that's the break even point for oil companies, and that it would take considerably higher prices for the province to continue operating at a surplus.

From the Financial Post two months ago:

Quote:
High costs squeeze oil sands

Break-even price jumps 31%
Claudia Cattaneo, Financial Post Published: Friday, September 05, 2008
CNS
CALGARY -- As oil backpedalled again yesterday to a five-month low, oil sands projects are getting increasingly squeezed as soaring costs boost the break-even price.

A new report found the break-even oil price required by new mining projects in the oil sands has jumped to $85 a barrel, an increase of $20 or 31% in barely more than a year.

In the report, National Bank Financial senior vice-president Peter Ogden said the break-even price -- which assumes an 8% rate of return, capital costs of $120,000 per flowing barrel and operating costs of $27 a barrel -- has crept up because of climbing labour and material costs and higher royalties in Alberta under a new fiscal regime beginning in January.

The break-even price in May, 2007, was $65 a barrel, assuming an 8% rate of return, capital costs of $100,000 per flowing barrel and operating costs of $20.50 a barrel.

Still, Mr. Ogden said he doesn't expect project cancellations just yet. "As the oil price does fall, you would expect the more marginal projects to be deferred, which would bring down construction costs, and therefore make the better projects more profitable."

Unless that happens, Mr. Ogden sees capital costs for mining projects trending even higher, to the range of $125,000 to $160,000 per flowing barrel.

Anticipating such deferrals, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers recently reduced its expectations for future oil sands production. The group now expects volumes to increase to 3.5 million barrels a day in 2020, 11.5% less than its forecast last year.

The price of crude fell US$1.46 a barrel in New York yesterday, settling at US$107.89, as the euro rose against the dollar, reducing the attractiveness of oil as an inflation hedge. Crude has declined 27% since reaching a record of $147.27 on July 11.

The break-even price for oil sands projects that use steam-assisted gravity-drainage technology has increased more modestly -- by $12 a barrel, or 21%, since May, 2007 -- to $70 a barrel, Mr. Ogden found.

Such thermal projects can make money at lower oil prices because they require less investment up front. The $70 break even price assumes an 8% rate of return, capital costs of $100,000 per flowing barrel and operating costs of $21 a barrel.

In last year's estimate, the break-even price was based on capital costs of $80,000 per flowing barrel and operating costs of $22 a barrel.

Despite perceptions that oil sands companies make lots of cash, the report suggests returns remain skinny, or in the 9% to 11% range for most projects. Still, he said companies are moving forward on expectations that oil prices will be higher, improving profitability.

Mr. Ogden predicted an increase in merger-and-acquisition activity, since lower oil prices have dampened the share prices of oil and gas companies to the cheapest level in two years, making purchases attractive.

He highlighted OPTI Canada Inc., UTS Energy Corp. and EnCana Corp.' s oil company spinoff as oil sands companies "with a target on their back."
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Old 12-03-2008, 03:09 PM   #111
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That's true. That's why they aren't as successful as they could be. Not everyone can work in the government and partake of those benefits. Maybe you're right. I should quit my private sector job and just join the government ASAP and start getting vested in a nice pension and flip the bird to the taxpayer. Then the people who work in the private sector with no union who have to pay for those benefits....Well too bad for them. They can go to hell.
What the hell are you talking about?

Everybody east of Alberta isn't as successful as they could be? We all work for the government? HELLO!!

Must be all those people out there on Bay Street that you're referring to.
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Old 12-03-2008, 03:18 PM   #112
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From the Financial Post two months ago:
Wow. I have to assume that given the falling prices and the general economic decline since then, things are even worse now. Thanks for posting.
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Old 12-03-2008, 03:23 PM   #113
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Yes, Goldman Sachs has maintained for a while now that it's $70.

So everybody how are your government jobs treating you today? I hope none of you are working to your full potential!!
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Old 12-03-2008, 03:45 PM   #114
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With all the bureaucratic nonsense I deal with on a daily basis with the occasional escape to goof off and post here, I might as well be in government.

At least I'm in the centre of the universe.
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Old 12-03-2008, 04:12 PM   #115
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Um, not really sure where you got that number from, because the break even number I've seen from several sources today seems to be $33/barrel.

Oil Break-Even Prices:

Bahrain 40
Kuwait 17
Saudi Arabia 30
U.A.E. 25
Oman 40
Qatar 30
Canada's oil sands 33

Crude Oil Price Forecast


I'm assuming that's the break even point for oil companies, and that it would take considerably higher prices for the province to continue operating at a surplus.
I was referring to variable cost break even. $15/barrel figure comes from Encana engineers who I'm frequently in discussions with. Capital break even and variable break even are different. IE, capital break even, they are including all the infrastructure expenses into the equation where as variable break even calculates ONLY the costs directly associated with extraction. IE, if you have lemonade stand business, your variable costs would be water, lemons, labour, disposable cups, and amortization of equipment. The fixed costs would be the chairs, table, mixing equipment. etc... you get the point.
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Old 12-03-2008, 05:37 PM   #116
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Originally Posted by BoMac View Post
Question: have you EVER been out east for longer than, say, a few days? Do you have any friends from eastern provinces at all?

I ask this because you've made similar statements in the past such as the one quoted. Where do you get off making assumptions about the way we live out east? Seriously. Maybe as a whole, provinces such as Quebec and Ontario are not as successful as Alberta is, or was, but individually there are many, many, many successful people. On the flip side, just because Alberta was raking in millions due to the resource boom, it doesn't mean that everyone is well-off. Homelessness and poverty are still very real issues in Alberta's main centres.

And not everyone, I repeat, NOT EVERYONE outside Alberta works in government. What makes you say such things? I was born and raised in the east, have friends across the country, and not one person that I know has a government job. They all, myself included, work in the private sector.

I think you've lost perspective on reality, and the reality of how people live outside of Alberta. It's quite amusing, actually.

I'm not sure if he's ever known reality. He seems to make A LOT of assumptions about places, people, or anything really outside his little realm.

I'd be interested to see what his real life experience has been outside Alberta, if any...
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Old 12-03-2008, 06:57 PM   #117
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What the hell are you talking about?

Everybody east of Alberta isn't as successful as they could be? We all work for the government? HELLO!!

Must be all those people out there on Bay Street that you're referring to.
Then it makes less sense to root for the left if you don't benefit from it. The poor will always be asking for more money from programs because much of the money goes to bureaucrats. If the money was "enough" nobody would work.
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Old 12-03-2008, 07:02 PM   #118
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Then it makes less sense to root for the left if you don't benefit from it.
See, this is what you will never understand. In all your generalizations, and all your stereotypes, and all of your pscho-babble, you will probably never understand, some of us will vote with our conscience. And you will always vote for YOUR self interest.

But at least you are honest about it.
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Old 12-03-2008, 07:03 PM   #119
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I'm not sure if he's ever known reality. He seems to make A LOT of assumptions about places, people, or anything really outside his little realm.

I'd be interested to see what his real life experience has been outside Alberta, if any...
Yeah like Alberta has never had recessions. Balancing budgets and lowering taxes works the same everywhere. The oil simply made the results happen faster but they wouldn't have happened if we kept the 30 billion in debt.

But hey I'm in a la la land in perfect Alberta.


It's not about feeling sorry for yourself. It's about running your own life instead of someone else. Those values are what made Alberta good.

I know easterners. They come out west to get jobs and they have a sense of arrogance and entitlement that westerners find bizzare. I'm not the only one who feels that way. Even some easterners admit it. That's why they left.
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Old 12-03-2008, 07:16 PM   #120
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Originally Posted by BoMac View Post
Question: have you EVER been out east for longer than, say, a few days? Do you have any friends from eastern provinces at all?

I ask this because you've made similar statements in the past such as the one quoted. Where do you get off making assumptions about the way we live out east? Seriously. Maybe as a whole, provinces such as Quebec and Ontario are not as successful as Alberta is, or was, but individually there are many, many, many successful people. On the flip side, just because Alberta was raking in millions due to the resource boom, it doesn't mean that everyone is well-off. Homelessness and poverty are still very real issues in Alberta's main centres.

And not everyone, I repeat, NOT EVERYONE outside Alberta works in government. What makes you say such things? I was born and raised in the east, have friends across the country, and not one person that I know has a government job. They all, myself included, work in the private sector.

I think you've lost perspective on reality, and the reality of how people live outside of Alberta. It's quite amusing, actually.
I never said everyone works for government. My statements are a joke illustrating how government owns over 40% of the GDP yet less than 40% of the population works there. It's nice to have those entitlements and eventually people want to go there. We don't have to worry about aristocracy. We have a bureaucracy. These entitlements cost and make it harder for people in the private sector to save. The taxes in Ontario and especially in Quebec are too high.

Read my response to BVS on easterners.

Are you kidding me? There are plenty of generalized statements that Albertans have to take from the east from the politicians themselves like Trudeau. Many easterners look at us as redneck, cowboy hat wearing, oil shakes. We have cities here too and we have other industries and there are even liberals here. Not all of us are rich. Some people handle their finances better than others. Coming to Alberta is not enough. People have to work and save. Seeing that there are maybe 40 years of work in your life and if you want a car, house, kids and retirement more taxes make it harder. Why do you think businesses want to move here?

Anyways why would people in the private sector want to plow more money in the Government when the government already owns so much. Don't you want to have a nice net pay so you can control your life and dreams? Government workers can spend ALL the money they have on lifestyle and rely on pensions the rest of us pay. The NDP doesn't think that 40% of the GDP is enough. The NDP doesn't know how wealth is created.
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