Can Egypt hold it together? President's son, family flee to Britain

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that's worrying... i've just read that some foreign countries (US and India) are starting to plan evacuations...
 
162500d1296364092-funny-strange-random-pics-nsytj.jpg
 
Mubarack will not be in Egypt 6 months from now.
or even 4 months, 3 months?


I'll put the over / under guess at >>>>>>>>>>>> 21 days.
 
So you are going with under 21 days.
that would be my guess, too. I could have put it at 14? 10?

Right now, if I could write the outcome.

I think I would go with something like this.

Egypt was scheduled to hold elections in September.

Stay with that. Mubarak hangs on for as long as he can, if he leaves too soon, we could have more chaos, with the public wanting blood.
So he announces that he planned on leaving office in September but, due to circumstances, or even because of a health issue he will step down now.

A temporary unity government is formed until and open and fair election is held and new government chosen.

the temporary coalition Government should consist of:
Mohamed ElBaradei, a leading opposition figure
Amr Moussa, head of the Arab League
the new V P
with cooperation of the popular Egyptian Army
 
i thought there were already some elections last November??

ok... just checked and those were the parliamentary elections...
 
yes, i know

but they were parliamentary elections as opposed to presidential elections
 
CNN, Jan. 31
After 30 years of mostly unchallenged rule, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak opened the door Sunday to talks with rival political parties while calling out those who, he claimed, used religion to "spread fear" through rampant hooliganism.

...The president, again recognizing the depth of the unrest, urged those charged with shaping the new Cabinet--specifically, his newly appointed Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq--to pursue "a wide range of dialogue with all the (political) parties." Such discussions, he said, "will achieve the democratic process."

...As he did in a nationally televised early Saturday, Mubarak referenced the unsettled security situation across the country, in part due to a void created after police largely abandoned their posts. He called on new government leaders to "stop all the violence by whoever commits it," while appearing to criticize the Muslim Brotherhood, the country's largest opposition party. "The citizens and the young people of Egypt have gone out to the streets in peaceful demonstration asking for their right for the freedom of speech," Mubarak said. "However, their demonstrations have been infiltrated by a group of people who use the name of religion who don't take into consideration the constitution rights and citizenship values."

...Whereas Mubarak's earlier speech dwelled mostly on security, his comments Sunday touched relatively more on substantive political and economic reforms. The president offered few specific ideas, besides ordering that government subsidies not be touched. Yet he did charge the new government to "regain the trust in our economy." He mentioned the need to "control unemployment," keep inflation low and keep prices of key commodities in check. "I trust in your ability to realize new economic achievements (and) to relieve the suffering of the people," Mubarak said.
Click to expand...
That's the generals talking. Frame the Muslim Brotherhood as the "mysterious" menace behind the looting (never mind the hundreds of reports of the army refusing to stop it; never mind why the police withdrew just before it started and where they "disappeared" to...no, it's a theologically inspired looting jihad!), as a pretext for ensuring the MB's exception from that "wide range of dialogue" promise. And even more importantly, make clear that government subsidies of the military and its monopolies on producing goods for the public sector--cables, armaments, appliances, construction material--are not to be tampered with (the military is thought to control well over a third of Egypt's economy).
 
And he'd be hoping for the longer game, where locking MB out is in part in the hope that they do actually get pissed off about it and create instability. Even if its legitimate, just political instability. These guys have all extensively used the War on Terror as pretext to hammering down even harder on any kind of dissent. So he lets a little democracy in in, but locks these guys out, he gives it a bit of time and then points to the lack of stability as some dangerous/islamist/whatever and uses that as his excuse to revert.
 
Whereas Mubarak's earlier speech dwelled mostly on security, his comments Sunday touched relatively more on substantive political and economic reforms. The president offered few specific ideas, besides ordering that government subsidies not be touched. Yet he did charge the new government to "regain the trust in our economy." He mentioned the need to "control unemployment," keep inflation low and keep prices of key commodities in check. "I trust in your ability to realize new economic achievements (and) to relieve the suffering of the people," Mubarak said
Click to expand...

he's spouting such bollox - i mean, he's been in power for 30 years already - he should have made these promises long ago...
 
deep said:
Right now, if I could write the outcome.
I think I would go with something like this.
Click to expand...

That would be best - and keep the September election date, time for people to get organised. But at the moment its really all down to the military, and what they're really up to still seems to be :shrug: Mixed messages.
 
is Bono safe?? :sad:


Cairo: Anger starting to focus on Israel, US

By BY MELANIE LIDMAN, JPOST CORRESPONDENT IN CAIRO
01/30/2011 21:47

Reporters Notebook: "Where is your democracy?" protesters ask in anti-American, anti-Mubarak rallies.


CAIRO – Saturday’s optimism on the streets of Cairo for imminent political change gave way to anger on Sunday, as thousands of demonstrators became increasingly frustrated with the lack of response from major world leaders, especially the US.

During the main protest on Sunday in downtown Cairo, one man painted a 20- meter-long message in flowing Arabic cursive that echoed across the square: “Go Away, Mubarak, you are from the Americans, and you’re working for them!”

RELATED:
ElBaradei: 'They stole our freedom,' demands regime change
Fighter jets swoop over Cairo protests in show of force

Egyptians understand that the world is waiting to see if President Hosni Mubarak falls to popular pressure before major leaders decide which side to support. But this is infuriating the demonstrators, who realize that six days of unrest have not accomplished their goal and that they need united international pressure in order to topple the almost-30-year incumbent.

The protests have lacked a clear leader to unite them and provide an alternative to Mubarak, and demonstrators are beginning to focus their wrath not just on Mubarak and the country’s widespread corruption, but also on the United States and, to a lesser extent, Israel. They blame Israel and the US for supporting a government because it is convenient for them, not because it is good for the Egyptian people.

“The USA does not support democracy; they’re supporting Israel, which is like their baby,” said Ahmed, a 26-year-old Cairo resident. “They think Egypt is functional because it’s in favor of their considerations.”

“I don’t care if we have peace [with Israel] or not,” Ahmed continued, echoing the indifference of many demonstrators who don’t have a clear agenda for what they want a future Egypt to look like, as long as it does not include Mubarak. “But will Israel allow us to have a real president? For example, Turkey elected an Islamic government, but it was their choice. Will Israel give us the freedom to make the same choice?” he asked.

Demonstrators are relying on the foreign press to get their message to Obama.

“Isn’t this democracy?” they asked me over and over when I said I was a journalist from America, incredulous that the country held as the pinnacle of world democracy could ignore such widespread popular sentiment.

Click here for full Jpost coverage of unrest in

Jerusalem Post | Breaking News from Israel, the Middle East & the Jewish World



“Obama has to be on our side. Where is your democracy?” asked Osam L, who works at a foreign bank in Cairo.

“You say Arabs are just donkeys, but the USA is supporting the system, not the people.”

The Jewish community in Cairo and Alexandria both declined to speak with the media, but told The Jerusalem Post that all of its members were safe and going about their daily routine as normally as possible.

Life is slowly returning to Cairo streets after nearly a week of unrest. Many of the stores in the downtown area remained shuttered, but convenience stores and cell phone kiosks were doing brisk business. There was significantly more traffic on the roads, and public transportation and trash collection were partially operational.

At 3:55 pm on Sunday, two fighter jets flew low over the city half a dozen times, ostensibly to remind everyone of the 4:00 pm curfew. The scare tactic was successful – by 4:30, the streets were mostly empty of cars as throngs of people headed on foot toward Tahrir Square.

Sunday’s protests were much less violent, although there was more anger directed at international leaders.

“What you are seeing here is an explosion. We have no other choice,” yelled one demonstrator.

The main protest in Tahrir Square continued to be attended by thousands of demonstrators from all walks of life – toddlers with small flags draped around their shoulders raising a fist in solidarity, old men in traditional garb walking slowly with canes near the sidewalks, giggling school girls, whole families marching arm and arm, young professionals as well as laborers.

“Those people that say we’re out here because of food or oil prices, that’s not true,” said Osam L. “I have enough to eat, thank God. I’m here for my freedom.”
Click to expand...


Cairo: Anger starting to focus on Israel, US
 
Earnie Shavers said:
That would be best - and keep the September election date, time for people to get organised. But at the moment its really all down to the military, and what they're really up to still seems to be :shrug: Mixed messages.
Click to expand...

Egyptian military pledges not to use force against public -

it is getting clearer

Mubarak is struggling to find a way to save his legacy. (in his own mind)

He would rather go down as the leader that gave democracy to the Egyptian people, than the 2011 version of the Shah of Iran.
 
deep said:
it is getting clearer

Mubarak is struggling to find a way to save his legacy. (in his own mind)

He would rather go down as the leader that gave democracy to the Egyptian people, than the 2011 version of the Shah of Iran.
Click to expand...


Yes, that's the way they've been acting too. It just didn't seem like it was fully trusted.

On the anti-US/anti-Israel thing, it really doesn't seem like that, from interviews/sentiments on the ground. There's definitely mocking of the US at least, but it seems more with an awareness of the sticky spot the US are in, not malice. I'd say if this does evolve into full/proper secular democracy, the US will have no problem still being "in" with Egypt, they just might have to take a little public slap down, followed by a little public groveling, but mainly, just keep the cash rolling and it will all be sweet.

Would also suggest (quietly - don't want to come across as some nutty conspiracy whatever) that the JPost might be trying to stir that idea up. Israel are absolutely (and understandably) firmly in Mubaraks corner.

Stupidly flicked off the real news channels - Al Jazeera/BBC - and over to Fox for a minute. Their stupidity knows no bounds: If this descends into massive chaos/Islamist rule, it is somehow directly Obama's fault. If it flowers into beautiful democracy, it is of course directly W's doing!
 
That won't happen. Iran alliance.


but things are moving in a way, I expected

Egypt vice prime minister announces dialogue with political parties as riots persist


Suleiman added on state T.V. that the dialogue will involve both constitutional and legislative reforms, a request voiced by anti-government protesters.
By Haaretz Service and News Agencies Tags: Israel news Egypt protests

Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman said on Monday that President Hosni Mubarak has asked him to start a dialogue with all the political parties as riots continue on the eve of their seventh day.

Suleiman added on state T.V. that the dialogue will involve both constitutional and legislative reforms, a request voiced by anti-government protesters.

President Hosni Mubarak announced Saturday that Omar Suleiman, the intelligence chief with military experience, would be vice president and in prime position for the top job if Mubarak does not run for president again in September.

Suleiman is the first vice-president of Egypt to be appointed since Mubarak first took power almost thirty years ago. Mubarak himself occupied the position of vice-president under the former Egyptian president Anwar Sadat, and took the reigns of power after Sadat was assassinated in 1981.

Suleiman's announcement comes after six days of unrest that have killed more than 100 people but the two sides have reached a stalemate. Protesters refuse to go, while the army is not moving them after publicly stating that they will not use force against civilians. The longer protesters stay unchallenged, the more untenable Mubarak's position seems.

Protesters in Tahrir Square - epicenter of the earthquake that has sent shudders through the Middle East and among global investors - have dismissed Mubarak's appointment of military men as his vice president and prime minister.

His promises of economic reform to address public anger at rising prices, unemployment and the huge gap between rich and poor have failed to halt their broader calls for a political sweep out of Mubarak and his associates.

Protesters have called for a general strike on Monday and what they bill as a "protest of the millions" march on Tuesday, to press their demands for democracy which could spell the end for the military establishment which has run post-colonial Egypt since the 1950s.

Suleimans announcement comes just one day after the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest opposition group, announced that it is in talks with other anti-government figures to form a national unity government without President Hosni Mubarak, a group official told DPA on Sunday.

Although the Muslim Brotherhood is officially banned from running for elections for parliament, some movement members have presented candidacy for parliament as independents.

Gamal Nasser, a spokesman for the Brotherhood, told DPA that his group was in talks with Mohammed ElBaradei - the former UN nuclear watchdog chief - to form a national unity government without the National Democratic Party of Mubarak.

The group is also demanding an end to the draconian Emergency Laws, which grant police wide-ranging powers The laws have been used often to arrest and harass the Islamist group.

Nasser said his group would not accept any new government with Mubarak. On Saturday the Brotherhood called on President Mubarak to relinquish power in a peaceful manner following the resignation of the Egyptian cabinet.
Click to expand...

http://www.haaretz.com/news/interna...h-political-parties-as-riots-persist-1.340441
 
Earnie Shavers said:
over to Fox for a minute. Their stupidity knows no bounds: If this descends into massive chaos/Islamist rule, it is somehow directly Obama's fault. If it flowers into beautiful democracy, it is of course directly W's doing!
Click to expand...

Glenn Beck is fun to watch, his real theatrics are so much better than any parody on Stewart or SNL.
 
deep said:
Glenn Beck is fun to watch, his real theatrics are so much better than any parody on Stewart or SNL.
Click to expand...

As nutty and ridiculous as Beck is, he knows he's 80% entertainer. I'm sure he believes it all, but it's very deliberately ramped up to the super-nutty. O'Reilly knows his persona/market best, and in that smugness you get the sense that he actually thinks his audience are idiots - "this is too easy", laughing all the way to the bank, and all that. But you know Hannity is 110% serious, and so I actually find his off the charts righteous ignorance to be by far the most entertaining thing on Fox.
 
Chris Hedges: What Corruption and Force Have Wrought in Egypt - Chris Hedges' Columns - Truthdig

The uprising in Egypt, although united around the nearly universal desire to rid the country of the military dictator Hosni Mubarak, also presages the inevitable shift within the Arab world away from secular regimes toward an embrace of Islamic rule. Don’t be fooled by the glib sloganeering about democracy or the facile reporting by Western reporters—few of whom speak Arabic or have experience in the region. Egyptians are not Americans. They have their own culture, their own sets of grievances and their own history. And it is not ours. They want, as we do, to have a say in their own governance, but that say will include widespread support—especially among Egypt’s poor, who make up more than half the country and live on about two dollars a day—for the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamic parties. Any real opening of the political system in the Arab world’s most populated nation will see an empowering of these Islamic movements. And any attempt to close the system further—say a replacement of Mubarak with another military dictator—will ensure a deeper radicalization in Egypt and the wider Arab world.

The only way opposition to the U.S.-backed regime of Mubarak could be expressed for the past three decades was through Islamic movements, from the Muslim Brotherhood to more radical Islamic groups, some of which embrace violence. And any replacement of Mubarak (which now seems almost certain) while it may initially be dominated by moderate, secular leaders will, once elections are held and popular will is expressed, have an Islamic coloring. A new government, to maintain credibility with the Egyptian population, will have to more actively defy demands from Washington and be more openly antagonistic to Israel. What is happening in Egypt, like what happened in Tunisia, tightens the noose that will—unless Israel and Washington radically change their policies toward the Palestinians and the Muslim world—threaten to strangle the Jewish state as well as dramatically curtail American influence in the Middle East.

The failure of the United States to halt the slow-motion ethnic cleansing of Palestinians by Israel has consequences. The failure to acknowledge the collective humiliation and anger felt by most Arabs because of the presence of U.S. troops on Muslim soil, not only in Iraq and Afghanistan but in the staging bases set up in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, has consequences. The failure to denounce the repression, including the widespread use of torture, censorship and rigged elections, wielded by our allies against their citizens in the Middle East has consequences. We are soaked with the stench of these regimes. Mubarak, who reportedly is suffering from cancer, is seen as our puppet, a man who betrayed his own people and the Palestinians for money and power.

The Muslim world does not see us as we see ourselves. Muslims are aware, while we are not, that we have murdered tens of thousands of Muslims in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. We have terrorized families, villages and nations. We enable and defend the Israeli war crimes carried out against Palestinians and the Lebanese—indeed we give the Israelis the weapons and military aid to carry out the slaughter. We dismiss the thousands of dead as “collateral damage.” And when those who are fighting against occupation kill us or Israelis we condemn them, regardless of context, as terrorists. Our hypocrisy is recognized on the Arab street. Most Arabs see bloody and disturbing images every day from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, images that are censored on our television screens. They have grown sick of us. They have grown sick of the Arab regimes that pay lip service to the suffering of Palestinians but do nothing to intervene. They have grown sick of being ruled by tyrants who are funded and supported by Washington. Arabs understand that we, like the Israelis, primarily speak to the Muslim world in the crude language of power and violence. And because of our entrancement with our own power and ability to project force, we are woefully out of touch. Israeli and American intelligence services did not foresee the popular uprising in Tunisia or Egypt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, Israel’s new intelligence chief, told Knesset members last Tuesday that “there is no concern at the moment about the stability of the Egyptian government.” Tuesday, it turned out, was the day hundreds of thousands of Egyptians poured into the streets to begin their nationwide protests.

What is happening in Egypt will damage and perhaps unravel the fragile peace treaty between Egypt and Jordan with Israel. It is likely to end Washington’s alliance with these Arab intelligence services, including the use of prisons to torture those we have disappeared into our vast network of black sites. The economic ties between Israel and these Arab countries will suffer. The current antagonism between Cairo and the Hamas government in Gaza will be replaced by more overt cooperation. The Egyptian government’s collaboration with Israel, which includes demolishing tunnels into Gaza, the sharing of intelligence and the passage of Israeli warship and submarines through the Suez Canal, will be in serious jeopardy. Any government—even a transition government that is headed by a pro-Western secularist such as Mohamed ElBaradei—will have to make these changes in the relationship with Israel and Washington if it wants to have any credibility and support. We are seeing the rise of a new Middle East, one that will not be as pliable to Washington or as cowed by Israel.

The secular Arab regimes, backed by the United States, are discredited and moribund. The lofty promise of a pan-Arab union, championed by the Egyptian leader Gamal Abd-al-Nasser and the original Baathists, has become a farce. Nasser’s defiance of Washington and the Western powers has been replaced by client states. The secular Arab regimes from Morocco to Yemen, for all their ties with the West, have not provided freedom, dignity, opportunity or prosperity for their people. They have failed as spectacularly as the secular Palestinian resistance movement led by Yasser Arafat. And Arabs, frustrated and enduring mounting poverty, are ready for something new. Radical Islamist groups such as the Palestinian Hamas, the Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon and the jihadists fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan are the new heroes, especially for the young who make up most of the Arab world. And many of those who admire these radicals are not observant Muslims. They support the Islamists because they fight back. Communism as an ideological force never took root in the Muslim world because it clashed with the tenets of Islam. The championing of the free market in countries such as Egypt has done nothing to ameliorate crushing poverty. Its only visible result has been to enrich the elite, including Mubarak’s son and designated heir, Gamal. Islamic revolutionary movements, because of these failures, are very attractive. And this is why Mubarak forbids the use of the slogan “Islam is the solution” and bans the Muslim Brotherhood. These secular Arab regimes hate and fear Hamas and the Islamic radicals as deeply as the Israelis do. And this hatred only adds to their luster.

The decision to withdraw the police from Egyptian cities and turn security over to the army means that Mubarak and his handlers in Washington face a grim choice. Either the army, as in Tunisia, refuses to interfere with the protests, meaning the removal of Mubarak, or it tries to quell the protests with force, a move that would leave hundreds if not thousands dead and wounded. The fraternization between the soldiers and the crowds, along with the presence of tanks adorned with graffiti such as “Mubarak will fall,” does not bode well for Washington, Israel and the Egyptian regime. The army has not been immune to the creeping Islamization of Egypt—where bars, nightclubs and even belly dancing have been banished to the hotels catering to Western tourists. I attended a reception for middle-ranking army officers in Cairo in the 1990s when I was based there for The New York Times and every one of the officers’ wives had a head covering. Mubarak will soon become history. So, I expect, will neighboring secular Arab regimes. The rise of powerful Islamic parties appears inevitable. It appears inevitable not because of the Quran or a backward tradition, but because we and Israel believed we could bend the aspirations of the Arab world to our will through corruption and force.
 
^I think there is a lot of truth in this article particulary in regards to what kinds of ideology will be voted in by the people.

The problem is that radical Islam will only support democracy as it serves their ends. Once in power I doubt they'll be much different than Mubarak has been. These ideologies are not open to free speech, human rights, or any of the other values of a free and democratic society.
 
Drudge has just decided how the GOP will fall, and it will be reflexively anti-Obama, since that's all that matters. witness, the headlines on Drudge today:

Muslim Brotherhood: 'Prepare for war with Israel'...

Israel shocked by Obama's 'betrayal' of Mubarak...

DAY 7: Massive crowds gather across Egypt...

'I will stay here till I die'...

Tehran taunts Washington for wavering...
Click to expand...
 
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