Can Egypt hold it together? President's son, family flee to Britain - Page 4 - U2 Feedback

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Old 01-29-2011, 05:04 PM   #46
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this is about to implode

Mubarak will not be able to ride this out,

the best outcome will be a military coup, with a promise and commitment of an election in 6 to 12 months.
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Old 01-29-2011, 05:34 PM   #47
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social media + flash mobs = government collapse
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Old 01-29-2011, 05:39 PM   #48
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in many ways this is similar to 79 and Iran
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Old 01-29-2011, 05:49 PM   #49
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social order is collapsing, chaos is a real possibility

there are three main parties to this equation

1. the people, for the most part, 80+ % want Mubarack gone.
2. the Military
3. the Government, that is one person Mubarak and 100% of the Government wants Mubarak to stay.

the only question is what no. 2 the Military wants
I think the Generals are still assessing their own interests.
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Old 01-29-2011, 05:52 PM   #50
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The outlines of his clampdown strategy seem clear enough now. Send your goons-for-hire into the wealthy neighborhoods and shopping malls and treasured public spaces like the National Museum; call off the police and order the army to stand around doing nothing as they loot stores, smash windshields and vandalize priceless mummies. Remove your offending heirs to the safety of London. Dismiss your cabinet (the time-honored token reboot of failing dictators everywhere), appoint as your new PM a pro-US former air force chief (just like you!), and presage a "fairer" transition of office--without threatening the status quo--by finally designating your (pro-Fatah, pro-Maronite, anti-Hamas, anti-Hezbollah, anti-Brotherhood) intelligence chief as your heir apparent. Then wait for the media to run with the "protesters out of control, looting and burning their fellow men's property" narrative, until the time is right to make a show of loosing the army on these "criminals."

On the one hand, rumor has it that the army is fraternizing warmly with protesters and assuring them no shots will be fired; on the other hand, rumor also has it that they are following Mubarak's orders not to stop the goons. I don't know what to think. If the protesters hold out at this rate, it is hard to imagine the army moving against them.

(Unsurprisingly, the Israelis have evacuated all their diplomats and removed their flags from their embassies and consulates.)
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the best outcome will be a military coup, with a promise and commitment of an election in 6 to 12 months.
By "best," you mean as opposed to a 1979-style power vacuum?
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Old 01-29-2011, 06:01 PM   #51
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there is no 'good' outcome

we can not put the toothpaste back into the tube

that is the only least worse outcome, I can think of.

it would be nice if the Military could get ElBaradei to head an interim government until free and open elections



I think this if fast becoming a wild situation, completely out of control, impossible to predict.
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Old 01-29-2011, 06:09 PM   #52
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It's not clear to me what kind of traction El Baradei really has. He's the most palatable obvious alternative to Washington, certainly, but from an Egyptian POV, he's a virtual unknown who's lived in Europe for decades and carries some taint of collaboration with the powers arrayed against them. Still, and especially if interim, better him than Mubarak's man, I guess.
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Old 01-29-2011, 06:13 PM   #53
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The outlines of his clampdown strategy seem clear enough now. Send your goons-for-hire into the wealthy neighborhoods and shopping malls and treasured public spaces like the National Museum; call off the police and order the army to stand around doing nothing as they loot stores, smash windshields and vandalize priceless mummies. Remove your offending heirs to the safety of London. Dismiss your cabinet (the time-honored token reboot of failing dictators everywhere), appoint as your new PM a pro-US former air force chief (just like you!), and presage a "fairer" transition of office--without threatening the status quo--by finally designating your (pro-Fatah, pro-Maronite, anti-Hamas, anti-Hezbollah, anti-Brotherhood) intelligence chief as your heir apparent. Then wait for the media to run with the "protesters out of control, looting and burning their fellow men's property" narrative, until the time is right to make a show of loosing the army on these "criminals."
that let the looting happen, so citizens will think again and want Mubarak to take charge and restore order will be Mubarak's last strategy to regain support from the street.

I don't see it as a winning strategy at all, it will just exasperate anger towards him, people will see it as a continuum of all the bad that happened because of a corrupt Government that fails to protect the people.
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Old 01-29-2011, 06:36 PM   #54
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some of the American TV coverage is pretty stupid

hearing about Americans on vacation in Egypt,
having a hard time because there is no 'room service'.

and then we have Egyptians being shot dead as they are walking across the street
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Old 01-29-2011, 06:38 PM   #55
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there is no 'good' outcome
What an extraordinary post. Are you saying you prefer the current regimes?
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Old 01-29-2011, 06:59 PM   #56
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I have written a few posts in this thread

do you see anything that suggest I support the status quo?
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Old 01-29-2011, 08:04 PM   #57
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I have written a few posts in this thread

do you see anything that suggest I support the status quo?
I've seen a few that indicate that you possibly don't understand the dynamic at work here.

Bernanke's put option has led to hyperinflation abroad (albeit, not yet in the US) which trends to starvation in countries like Tunisia and Egypt, and plausibly, other borderline developing countries. Saudi and Kuwait possibly have enough cash to buy off the dissent.

Ergo, revolutionary conditions exist in African countries because of monetary policy in the west - no more, and no less.
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Old 01-29-2011, 08:55 PM   #58
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“May you live in interesting times.”

No one quite knows the origin of that statement, though it’s purported to be a Chinese proverb — or even a curse.

Here we go
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Old 01-29-2011, 09:38 PM   #59
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BBC News - Egypt protests: Hosni Mubarak under world pressure
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Old 01-30-2011, 08:49 AM   #60
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Interesting developments right now - the army has been so far seen as quite supportive of the protesters, they've been acting that way at least, although there's been a question mark over 'for how long'/'whats their longer game', and in the last couple of hours a lot of newer US made tanks have been seen rolling into central Cairo - these are elite units, usually based closer to borders. It seems suddenly there's been a shift in terms of perception - suddenly the army are looking a bit more sinister.
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