Can Egypt hold it together? President's son, family flee to Britain

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Really Mr Biden??

Egypt has a population of 80 million people. The well being of those people is secondary to 5,000,000 in an adjacent country.

:up:

A neighbouring country which is not an honest peace broker, as revealed so explicitly by the recently leaked Palestine Papers, which are of course, getting little traction in the US media.

Like I said, par for the course here.
 
Bonoa -- you clearly know much more about Egypt than most of the regular posters in here. my question/concern -- if the government is overthrown, who will take their place? will democratic elections be held? is there concern that Islamists might be democratically elected? is that the change young Egyptians are looking for? something else?

sorry if i come off as grossly uninformed, that's probably because i am on this topic.

I'm an Egyptfreak:D an archaeologist and Egyptologist.

Mubarak was held in place by the west, tolerated because of his friendship with Israel and other Arab countries, to form a bridge between east and west.
The young Egyptians want democracy, I don't know who they had in mind, but opposition leader Mohamed el Baradei agrees to lead the country temporarily. He is a nobel peace prize winner and a leading nuclear scientist. He seems like a good solution for democratization of Egypt and to provide economic growth for the country. If he's true at heart democratic elections will be held. After the assassination of Sadat, Mubarak promised to have democratic elections as well, but he ended up like a pharaoh whose eldest son would be his successor. Under his rule the Emergency Law was maintained from 1981 until now...

I don't know about plot theories (Bilderberg et al. After all, El Baradei has a lot to do with the UN and as based in Geneva) but the other side of the story is that somehow El Baradeiwas put forward to be the new Egyptian leader, to function for a buffer against Iran and their nuclear program and to take away power from the extremist Muslim Brotherhood, who like to benefit from the mass revolution in the streets (the liberas youths do it for them).

As far as the Muslim Brotherhood is concerned, I know that most Egyptians think of them as 'veiled freaks' who don't belong to true Islam and rather crooss the street if they see one...



Spent some time in Egypt back in 95, i remember being over there when OJ was acquitted and Rabin was assassinated. There were some tense moments with the latter of the two....

We even had a security detail accompany us downtown Alexandria to get some christmas lights.

The pyramids were fun, so was drinking Stella on a hotel balcony looking out at them.

I really have to go back to see Egypt again :heart:. I've been there for three months back in 2006 and I was planning to do an internship there soon at an excavation.
Yes, back then when we visited the eastern Delta (Avaris, Tell el-Dab'a) we had two trucks full of soldiers following us around 'for our safety'. We were with 10 people and I think they wanted to make sure we wouldn't steal things from excavation sites. During other trips we had a young soldier who traveled with us, a very cool guy. Of course we made a lot of political incorrect pics as we were allowed to pose with his Uzi.:hyper:

Oh, yeah, Stella.... have you tried Saqqara beer, with Djosers Step pyramid on the label? One time we drank so much of it that the next day only the sight of the pyramid of Saqqara almost made us sick...:D
 
It's pretty entertaining watching Washington trying to maintain the balancing act between pretending to be all about American Values n' Freedom n' Democracy while in fact hoping Egypt keeps its dictator in place so as to not negate all the foreign policy influence over there.

~

Young people in the Middle East (15--29 years old) constitute about one-third of the region's population (Brookings Institute). That, combined with internet access, has guaranteed future transformative change more than any U.S. meddling in the region could hope to.
 
It's worrying how easily the government was able to shut down the internet.

Make no mistake, if any our 'liberal 'n' democratic' (TM) governments in the West found reason to do so, they would do the same. And the reason might be a few citizens getting uppity.
 
I just lost a couple of hours reading up on all this stuff, following link after link on various sites. I feel like I actually have at least a small grasp of the situation and the background now.

Huzzah for the internet.

Will definitely be keeping an eye on the reports in the coming days.
 
It's worrying how easily the government was able to shut down the internet.

Make no mistake, if any our 'liberal 'n' democratic' (TM) governments in the West found reason to do so, they would do the same. And the reason might be a few citizens getting uppity.
There's an "internet kill switch" bill floating around somewhere in the U.S. House of Reps right at this moment.

Considering ICANN is in Marina del Ray, CA, I'm surprised the rest of the world is not more uppity about this.
 
Some slogans chanted by the protesters, via Cal State's As'ad AbuKhalil:


الهلال ويا الصليب بيقولوا لأ يا حبيب“The crescent and the cross say 'no,' [Interior Minister] Habib”
الهلال ويا الصليب ضد القتل والتعذيب“The crescent and the cross against murder and torture”
مسلمين مع مسيحيين كلنا طالبين التغيير“Muslims with Christians, we all demand change”
قولوا وردوا أنت وهي ...مصر هتفضل غاليه عليا“Say and repeat, you and she…Egypt will stay dear to me”
مصر حتفضل غاليه عليا رغم الخونه والحراميه“Egypt will stay dear to me, despite the traitors and the thieves”
ارحل ارحل ارحل غور خلِّي بلدنا تشوف النور“Leave, leave, leave, for good, let our country see the light”
ارحل ارحل يا عميل بعت بلادك لاسرائيل“Leave, leave, you traitor, you sold your country to Israel”
ارفع ارفع الهتاف شعبنا حر ومش هيخاف"Husni Mubarak died, died, and [Habib] is agent of the Mossad"
يا مبارك يا جبان, يا عميل الأميركان"O Mubarak, you coward, O agent of the Americans"
حسني مبارك, مات مات. والعدلي عميل الموساد“Raise, raise the call, our people are free and not afraid”
ياعيون العالم طُلي مصر لبست توبها التلُّي“Oh, eyes of the world behold, Egypt wore her tulle dress”
اضرب اضرب يا حبيب مهما تضرب مش هنسيب“Hit, hit, Habib, no matter how much you hit, we won’t let go”
مش عايزينه مش عايزينه ولا كلابه ولا زنانيه“I don’t want, I don’t want, neither his dogs nor his prisons”
اصحي يا مصر وفوقي م النوم نهبوا ولادك يوم ورا يوم“Wake up Egypt and become aware, they had deprived your sons of sleep day after day”
ثوره ثوره في كل مكان ضد الخونه والأندال“Revolution, revolution everywhere, against the traitors and the scoundrels”
ثوره ثوره يا مصريين لجل ما نخلص م الخاينين“Revolution, revolution, oh Egyptians, so that we can get rid of the traitors”
اهرب اهرب ياجمال انت وابوك والأندال“Escape, escape, Gamal, you and your father are scoundrels”
يا مبارك يا خرتيت ارحل ارحل يا غتيت“Oh Mubarak, you rhinoceros, leave, leave, you’re annoying”
علِّي الصوت علِّي كمان لجل ما يسمع كل جبان“Raise your voices even more, so that every coward hears”
حسني مبارك جلده تخين هو وعيلته مش سامعين“Husni Mubarak has thick skin, he and his family aren’t hearing”
ا مبارك ارحل غور أحسن بكره تموت مقتول“Oh Mubarak leave for good, or else tomorrow you’ll be killed”
يا مبارك, يا مبارك. الطيّارة في إنتظارك“O Mubarak, O Mubarak, the plane is waiting for you”
يا مبارك, يا مبارك. السعوديّة بإتنظارك“O Mubarak, O Mubarak, Saudi Arabia is waiting for you”
حسني مبارك يا بليد شعب مصر مش عبيد“Husni Mubarak, you lazy one, Egypt’s people are not slaves”
حسني مبارك يا جبله اطلع اطلع اطلع بره“Husni Mubarak, here’s the clarification, get out, get out, get out, outside”
حسني مبارك يا عميل بعت الغاز وفاضل النيل“Husni Mubarak, you agent, you sold the gas and [only] the Nile is left [to be sold]”
يا جمال يا غراب البين خد ابوك وروحوا لزين“Oh Gamal, you crow, we’re turning your father’s cheek, so you two leave to [Tunisia's deposed] Zayn”
شعبنا رافضه من سنين بس مبارك جلده تخين“Our people are refusing him, it’s been years, but Mubarak’s skin is thick”
علِّي علِّي علِّي الصوت النظام خايف موت“Raise, raise, raise the voice, the regime is scared to death”
التغيير التغيير ارحل ارحل يا حقير“Change, change, leave, leave, you contemptible [person]”
مش ماشيين قاعدين قاعدين حسني مبارك جلده تخين“We’re not leaving, we’re sitting, sitting, [because] Husni Mubarak has thick skin”
ارحل ارحل ياخسيس بره بره يا عجل يا تيس“Leave, leave, you despicable [person], outside, outside, you calf, you ass”
فاقد الحس والأهليه هو وابنه والوليَّه الخرتيت ابن الحراميه“They don’t have sensations or qualifications, he and his son and his wife, the rhinoceros, the son of thieves”
كل الشعب يقول وينادي حسني مبارك بره بلادي“All the people say and call: Husni Mubarak [get] outside his country”
يا حبيب يا حبيب حسني مبارك قتله قريب“Oh darling, oh darling, Husni Mubarak’s murder is near”
السرطان في كل مكان والغاز متباع بالمجان“The cancer is everywhere, and the gas is sold for free”
باعوا دمانا وباعوا كلاوينا وبنشحت احنا وأهالينا“They sold our blood, they sold our kidneys, and we beg, we and our families”
تسقط تسقط العصابه الزعيم ويا الديابه“Fall, fall, the gang, the boss, and the wolves”
الكرامه والحريه مطلب كل المصراويه“Dignity and freedom, is the demand of all Egyptians”
التحرير التحرير من حكم الرمه الخنزير“Liberation, liberation, from rule by the dregs, the pig”
التحرير التحرير من حكم عصابة التزوير“Liberation, liberation, from rule by the gang of fraud”
مصر بلدنا مش تكيه للهليبه والحراميه“Egypt, our country, is not a hospice for villains and thieves”
الشعب يريد إسقاط النظام“The people want the downfall of the regime”
شرطة مصر يا شرطة مصر انتو بقيتوا كلاب القصر“Police of Egypt, oh police of Egypt, you’ve become the dogs of the castle”
لأ لأ لأ يا جيش خليك بره واوعى تطيش حسني مبارك مش حيعي"“No, no, no, oh army, stay out and aware, don’t be reckless, Husni Mubarak will not live”
 
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I really have to go back to see Egypt again :heart:. I've been there for three months back in 2006 and I was planning to do an internship there soon at an excavation.
Yes, back then when we visited the eastern Delta (Avaris, Tell el-Dab'a) we had two trucks full of soldiers following us around 'for our safety'. We were with 10 people and I think they wanted to make sure we wouldn't steal things from excavation sites. During other trips we had a young soldier who traveled with us, a very cool guy. Of course we made a lot of political incorrect pics as we were allowed to pose with his Uzi.:hyper:

Oh, yeah, Stella.... have you tried Saqqara beer, with Djosers Step pyramid on the label? One time we drank so much of it that the next day only the sight of the pyramid of Saqqara almost made us sick...:D

We rode buses from Cairo West to Alexandria for our mission, and along the way we had an escort of motorcycles and small vehicles, all armed.

IN Alexandria we stayed in Egyptian military officers' quarters, overlooking the mediterranean sea. Once we had played our war games, it was time for a trip back to Cairo and the pyramids. One thing that sticks with me is the perfume shops and the factories where CHILDREN were making rugs. I could not go inside the sweat shops and watch the children make the rugs, i just could not bear to.

We visited all of the main tourist attractions, Sphinx, Pyramids, etc. The pyramids are absolutely amazing...im sure i dont need to tell you that.

Made friends with some Egyptian military officers who were liasions with our military. I too have pictures posing with AK-47's or whatever they had, have to look now.

I was amazed how much alcohol we were able to buy from street vendors downton, its easy to lose oneself in the history and the setting sun if you let it.
 
There's an "internet kill switch" bill floating around somewhere in the U.S. House of Reps right at this moment.

Considering ICANN is in Marina del Ray, CA, I'm surprised the rest of the world is not more uppity about this.


Let them pull a kill switch in this country and you will see the 60's all over again - a hundred times over. The young people will finally have something to unite against and 40 an overs will be out in full force and EVERYONE! will be standing up for their civil liberties.

As far as Egypt going to the Islamic extreme, I don't see that happening. They are trying to get out from under what they feel has been a dictatorship style government. They aren't about to give that up to the Muslim Brotherhood extremeist which would further restrict their lives. I hope.

Of course I'm just dealing with what I hear from our news outlets but it's a "be careful what you wish for moment" - for sure."
 
this is about to implode

Mubarak will not be able to ride this out,

the best outcome will be a military coup, with a promise and commitment of an election in 6 to 12 months.
 
social order is collapsing, chaos is a real possibility

there are three main parties to this equation

1. the people, for the most part, 80+ % want Mubarack gone.
2. the Military
3. the Government, that is one person Mubarak and 100% of the Government wants Mubarak to stay.

the only question is what no. 2 the Military wants
I think the Generals are still assessing their own interests.
 
The outlines of his clampdown strategy seem clear enough now. Send your goons-for-hire into the wealthy neighborhoods and shopping malls and treasured public spaces like the National Museum; call off the police and order the army to stand around doing nothing as they loot stores, smash windshields and vandalize priceless mummies. Remove your offending heirs to the safety of London. Dismiss your cabinet (the time-honored token reboot of failing dictators everywhere), appoint as your new PM a pro-US former air force chief (just like you!), and presage a "fairer" transition of office--without threatening the status quo--by finally designating your (pro-Fatah, pro-Maronite, anti-Hamas, anti-Hezbollah, anti-Brotherhood) intelligence chief as your heir apparent. Then wait for the media to run with the "protesters out of control, looting and burning their fellow men's property" narrative, until the time is right to make a show of loosing the army on these "criminals."

On the one hand, rumor has it that the army is fraternizing warmly with protesters and assuring them no shots will be fired; on the other hand, rumor also has it that they are following Mubarak's orders not to stop the goons. I don't know what to think. If the protesters hold out at this rate, it is hard to imagine the army moving against them.

(Unsurprisingly, the Israelis have evacuated all their diplomats and removed their flags from their embassies and consulates.)
the best outcome will be a military coup, with a promise and commitment of an election in 6 to 12 months.
By "best," you mean as opposed to a 1979-style power vacuum?
 
there is no 'good' outcome

we can not put the toothpaste back into the tube

that is the only least worse outcome, I can think of.

it would be nice if the Military could get ElBaradei to head an interim government until free and open elections



I think this if fast becoming a wild situation, completely out of control, impossible to predict.
 
It's not clear to me what kind of traction El Baradei really has. He's the most palatable obvious alternative to Washington, certainly, but from an Egyptian POV, he's a virtual unknown who's lived in Europe for decades and carries some taint of collaboration with the powers arrayed against them. Still, and especially if interim, better him than Mubarak's man, I guess.
 
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The outlines of his clampdown strategy seem clear enough now. Send your goons-for-hire into the wealthy neighborhoods and shopping malls and treasured public spaces like the National Museum; call off the police and order the army to stand around doing nothing as they loot stores, smash windshields and vandalize priceless mummies. Remove your offending heirs to the safety of London. Dismiss your cabinet (the time-honored token reboot of failing dictators everywhere), appoint as your new PM a pro-US former air force chief (just like you!), and presage a "fairer" transition of office--without threatening the status quo--by finally designating your (pro-Fatah, pro-Maronite, anti-Hamas, anti-Hezbollah, anti-Brotherhood) intelligence chief as your heir apparent. Then wait for the media to run with the "protesters out of control, looting and burning their fellow men's property" narrative, until the time is right to make a show of loosing the army on these "criminals."

that let the looting happen, so citizens will think again and want Mubarak to take charge and restore order will be Mubarak's last strategy to regain support from the street.

I don't see it as a winning strategy at all, it will just exasperate anger towards him, people will see it as a continuum of all the bad that happened because of a corrupt Government that fails to protect the people.
 
some of the American TV coverage is pretty stupid

hearing about Americans on vacation in Egypt,
having a hard time because there is no 'room service'.

and then we have Egyptians being shot dead as they are walking across the street
 
I have written a few posts in this thread

do you see anything that suggest I support the status quo?

I've seen a few that indicate that you possibly don't understand the dynamic at work here.

Bernanke's put option has led to hyperinflation abroad (albeit, not yet in the US) which trends to starvation in countries like Tunisia and Egypt, and plausibly, other borderline developing countries. Saudi and Kuwait possibly have enough cash to buy off the dissent.

Ergo, revolutionary conditions exist in African countries because of monetary policy in the west - no more, and no less.
 
“May you live in interesting times.”

No one quite knows the origin of that statement, though it’s purported to be a Chinese proverb — or even a curse.

Here we go :sexywink:
 
Interesting developments right now - the army has been so far seen as quite supportive of the protesters, they've been acting that way at least, although there's been a question mark over 'for how long'/'whats their longer game', and in the last couple of hours a lot of newer US made tanks have been seen rolling into central Cairo - these are elite units, usually based closer to borders. It seems suddenly there's been a shift in terms of perception - suddenly the army are looking a bit more sinister.
 
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