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Old 06-22-2016, 08:24 PM   #1
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Brexit

Might only be an active thread for the next 48 hours, but deserves some board discussion.

UK Board members what are your thoughts?

If they do decide to leave, I could see other countries launching similar referendums. Will this collapse the House of Cards that is the EU as was foretold by Bono's reveal in the Zoo-TV Sydney Concert?
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Old 06-22-2016, 09:17 PM   #2
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Observing from afar, what an abhorrent campaign this has been from the Leave side, the potentially valid arguments drowned in a sea of misdirected bitterness and hatred.

I fully expect that if Brexit happens, Scotland will very quickly hold another independence referendum and this time succeed.

But my prediction is that the Scottish and ex-pat vote will swing the result narrowly to Remain. 51-49.
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Old 06-22-2016, 10:59 PM   #3
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I've been surprised at how much of the Leave sentiment boils down to social issues (i.e. xenophobia) rather than economic ones. Most of what I have been reading suggests that people don't have much of an idea what the economic implications will be of an exit. I'd expect a short term hit to the UK based on uncertainty from investors but in the long run I wouldn't expect much a disruption to the UK.
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Old 06-22-2016, 11:44 PM   #4
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I can't imagine it'll go through.

I also really hope it doesn't. I'm moving to England in three months with an EU passport. Don't want complications down the road.
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Old 06-23-2016, 12:04 AM   #5
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One of those referendums where there's no immediately 'good' choice from my perspective. I think the EU is a load of shit but I'd vote Remain because Leave would be more harmful given who and what is leading the push for it there.
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Old 06-23-2016, 12:22 AM   #6
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I've been surprised at how much of the Leave sentiment boils down to social issues (i.e. xenophobia) rather than economic ones. Most of what I have been reading suggests that people don't have much of an idea what the economic implications will be of an exit. I'd expect a short term hit to the UK based on uncertainty from investors but in the long run I wouldn't expect much a disruption to the UK.



I don't have much to add beyond this. It sounds like there are a lot of sociocultural undercurrents that might be difficult for foreigners to fully grasp. And the "black swan" even of the poor MP has given it another layer of complication. It seems like it's a bad idea economically, and there's the idea of it being a contagion. But I don't, and can't, feel these events too viscerally. It's more "well this is an interesting aspect of the situation."
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Old 06-23-2016, 01:54 AM   #7
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Brexit

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One of those referendums where there's no immediately 'good' choice from my perspective. I think the EU is a load of shit but I'd vote Remain because Leave would be more harmful given who and what is leading the push for it there.

Sounds like Jeremy Corbyn, who has apparently turned into an absolutely awful campaigner for Remain.


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Old 06-23-2016, 02:12 AM   #8
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Sounds like Jeremy Corbyn, who has apparently turned into an absolutely awful campaigner for Remain.


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Yes, though I'd wager he really had no good option. He'd be marginalised either way as genuinely left wing perspectives have been.
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Old 06-23-2016, 03:31 AM   #9
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Neither side has presented many valuable arguments.
I think the only argument that truly makes sense to me is that if a Brexit does happen the NHS and research in England will suffer a hefty blow.

Other than that the remain side blows any study that hints at economic turmoil out of proportion (though even the exit side mostly agrees that the first years after Brexit will not be great). The exit side follows the Donald Trump model of just layering lies upon lies upon catchphrases (which are also lies) knowing their supporters don't care and it will stick in the subconscious of the undecided voters.
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Old 06-23-2016, 04:51 AM   #10
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Neither side has presented many valuable arguments.
I think the only argument that truly makes sense to me is that if a Brexit does happen the NHS and research in England will suffer a hefty blow.

Other than that the remain side blows any study that hints at economic turmoil out of proportion (though even the exit side mostly agrees that the first years after Brexit will not be great). The exit side follows the Donald Trump model of just layering lies upon lies upon catchphrases (which are also lies) knowing their supporters don't care and it will stick in the subconscious of the undecided voters.

I'm not really sure what you mean. First you say neither side has presented arguments, but then you mention how anyone on the side of remain has something to argue, even if blown out of proportion. All in the meanwhile, the exiters are exemplifying a bunch of nationalist hoohaw and nothing more.
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Old 06-23-2016, 05:36 AM   #11
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I'm not really sure what you mean. First you say neither side has presented arguments, but then you mention how anyone on the side of remain has something to argue, even if blown out of proportion. All in the meanwhile, the exiters are exemplifying a bunch of nationalist hoohaw and nothing more.
I think it would be a big mistake for England to leave the EU, but the remain side has done a poor job presenting why. And the way they are manhandling studies on the effect on the UK economy has caused many people to become weary of the valid arguments that could have been made in this area.

The Brexit argument just doesn't exist beyond fueling nationalistic crap.
UK will still have to deal with the EU. They will still have to pay the EU. They will still have to deal with decisions in the EU.

On the other side, many within the EU have had it with the UK and their eternal demands for special treatment. So there is that.
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Old 06-23-2016, 08:44 AM   #12
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I think it would be a big mistake for England to leave the EU, but the remain side has done a poor job presenting why. And the way they are manhandling studies on the effect on the UK economy has caused many people to become weary of the valid arguments that could have been made in this area.
I agree.

The arguments about the tanking currency have especially been blown out of proportion. Yes, the GBP would likely see a historic collapse in the immediate aftermath but there is really no sound argument that it would remain that way in the long term.

I still think that this referendum is one of those big, scary changes that will result in a lot of people who may lean toward "leave" to get into the booth and have a change of heart at the last minute.
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:43 AM   #13
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What has the UK really ever gained from being in the EU in a strictly economic sense? As far as I can tell, the real beneficiaries of the EU have been underdeveloped states that gained access to easy credit and a stable currency, e.g. Greece which promptly managed to squander those benefits in a monumental way. In the case of a UK or a Germany, which already had strong currencies and financial sectors, neither of those benefits apply.
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Old 06-23-2016, 12:11 PM   #14
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What has the UK really ever gained from being in the EU in a strictly economic sense? As far as I can tell, the real beneficiaries of the EU have been underdeveloped states that gained access to easy credit and a stable currency, e.g. Greece which promptly managed to squander those benefits in a monumental way. In the case of a UK or a Germany, which already had strong currencies and financial sectors, neither of those benefits apply.
They benefit from increased free trade and the flow of labour (recognizing that this is part of the issue for the Leave crowd, but the UK has undeniably been a net recipient of labour which has had a stimulating effect on their economy).

Some of the longterm benefits of the EU are not as great for them as some of the poorer countries but there are some benefits.
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Old 06-23-2016, 12:14 PM   #15
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I see the labor argument, but theoretically Britain could exit the EU and still leave their borders relatively open if they so chose. Granted that likely won't happen because of the engrained racism in the UK, but economically it could be done.
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