Brexit

[trainmaniac]

Well... UK kicked out Churchill after WWII also by democratic means.

 

[anitram]

I see this a lot, but I still have no idea what it is based on. Will the UK be plunged into the dark ages for an eternity after Brexit? - No. But why and how it would outperform a UK within the EU I don't get.
Unless the UK strikes a deal with the EU unparalleled to any of the other deals the EU has in place with European countries.
Which I severely doubt will happen.
In no negotiation can you cherry pick only that was is favourable to you, and the UK still needs the EU more than the other way around.

I totally agree with you. I honestly don't see how this is better for them in the long run except if you take a VERY long term view and you put a high premium on being able to 100% control domestic social policies over anything else.

The one thing businesses value more than anything is the rule of law and certainty. You will now see the pullout of EU institutions and personnel and a withdrawal of foreign investment. Keep in mind that the UK's foreign direct investment is NOT immobile like in other places. For example, the UK economy does not depend largely on export of resources which are immobile (like oil, gold, uranium, etc) meaning that a foreign investor can easily pick up their investment and move it into a more stable region like the EU or elsewhere. Investors don't have that same option with say, oil, which is a limited resource present in significant quantities in a small handful of countries. Why would a financial institution risk uncertainty in the UK when they can have certainty in the US or the EU?

I don't buy for a second that your average person who voted Leave understands any of this. But that is the nature of a referendum and the nature of the Remain side having run a terrible and useless campaign.

 

[mama cass]

you know what, the more hate and ugliness i'm seeing reported, i don't even know if a socially minded left-wing government attempting to address their concerns would make the blindest bit of difference

i think people are just either nice or nasty

VersoBooks.com

Although we appear to be in a ‘post-fact’ Britain, I feel compelled to remind readers that austerity measures are unequally distributed across the population. Certainly, the poorest local authorities, especially those in the north and east, are being hit hardest by these unprecedented cuts to public spending. However, looking more closely at the data shows us that women—and women of colour in particular—are disproportionately impacted. Because women of colour, on the whole, are more likely to be public sector employees but also living in the poorest households, cuts to vital services, such as libraries, public transport and afterschool care, translate into further immiseration as jobs are threatened and household incomes decline. Even though people of colour are more likely to be living in poverty and are being hit hardest by austerity measures, 75% of voters of colour opted to remain in the EU. What does a claim of white victimhood mean in this context?

 

[Vlad n U 2]

you know what, the more hate and ugliness i'm seeing reported, i don't even know if a socially minded left-wing government attempting to address their concerns would make the blindest bit of difference

i think people are just either nice or nasty

VersoBooks.com

It certainly wouldn't be an overnight change, it would take many years and really, if the left-wing leader of a non-governing party cops so much crap even before he gets elected as the leader - then it's a bit daunting to imagine how it'd be like if he was in power for any length of time. He'd have very little support among the mainstream media, which would prove an impediment to making the aforementioned changes.

 

[Irvine511]

I have not yet seen you define what you mean by 'far-ish' left. I can assume you mean Sanders, who is not radical by any stretch of the imagination. It seems that you apply this label to any minor deviation from standard centrist politics.



Again, the notion that I have any real common ground with the right (anymore than you do) is utterly ridiculous.



I admit to some snark, but lets not pretend you're free of that either.



Greenwald is far-left now?

Once more, you should define what you are talking about.

You can continually present as if you're above it and only you, Vlad, know what really is and is not Left or center Left or whatever. But the above is your standard response -- you yourself have never defined these terms or given any concrete example of such. Most of the rest of us, including myself, operate under assumptions held in most western democracies of what is Left and Right, while taking into account that these are never perfect alignments due to culture, history, nuance, etc. most people would place Greenwald on the Left. Most people would view Hilary as center Left in the US, more center in Europe.

If you'd like to say NO NO THAT'S WRONG BECAUSE I DEFINE IT DIFFERENTLY, that's fine, but let's not pretend as if your definitions -- or at least assumptions we have to make because you rarely give any little information -- fall into mainstream political discourse.

My earlier points stand -- the political spectrum has a fundamental circularity. The far left and the far right have much in common.

 

[iron yuppie]

The one thing businesses value more than anything is the rule of law and certainty. You will now see the pullout of EU institutions and personnel and a withdrawal of foreign investment. Keep in mind that the UK's foreign direct investment is NOT immobile like in other places. For example, the UK economy does not depend largely on export of resources which are immobile (like oil, gold, uranium, etc) meaning that a foreign investor can easily pick up their investment and move it into a more stable region like the EU or elsewhere. Investors don't have that same option with say, oil, which is a limited resource present in significant quantities in a small handful of countries. Why would a financial institution risk uncertainty in the UK when they can have certainty in the US or the EU?

Agreed about the attractiveness of stability for investors, but I would disagree that the EU has been stable or that it will be in the future. The Euro has been fluctuating rather badly and the entire edifice is being weighed down by a couple of severely flagging economies in Greece and Spain, with more likely on the way. Ultimately I think Greece is indicative of an intractable problem for the EU in that giving up control of your own monetary policy is not sustainable in the long run. We've been seeing that there is no way to enforce fiscal reform measures on individual states, and ultimately stable places like Germany will stop propping up economically weaker states.

Admittedly I don't know how entangled the UK is in the financial structure of the EU (whether they are paying into the central bank or anything like that), but seems to be dissociated themselves from all that is a good idea.

The big winner from all this will probably be the US in that even more investment will flock over here.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

You can continually present as if you're above it and only you, Vlad, know what really is and is not Left or center Left or whatever. But the above is your standard response -- you yourself have never defined these terms or given any concrete example of such. Most of the rest of us, including myself, operate under assumptions held in most western democracies of what is Left and Right, while taking into account that these are never perfect alignments due to culture, history, nuance, etc. most people would place Greenwald on the Left. Most people would view Hilary as center Left in the US, more center in Europe.

If you'd like to say NO NO THAT'S WRONG BECAUSE I DEFINE IT DIFFERENTLY, that's fine, but let's not pretend as if your definitions -- or at least assumptions we have to make because you rarely give any little information -- fall into mainstream political discourse.

Hell, fair enough. You have some kind of point on this occasion. I would have thought 'far left' would be pretty universally defined as anti-capitalist, although I have to disagree with your perception of Hillary's position on the political spectrum, that's fine, whatever.

However, what you've written below ...

My earlier points stand -- the political spectrum has a fundamental circularity. The far left and the far right have much in common.

You're a believer in the horseshoe theory? There's absolutely no legitimate basis for that, and honestly, it's borderline insulting. Especially since ideologies on either end are complete opposites and that it is absolutely shameful on your part to suggest they have much in common.

 

[Badyouken]

I totally agree with you. I honestly don't see how this is better for them in the long run except if you take a VERY long term view and you put a high premium on being able to 100% control domestic social policies over anything else.

The one thing businesses value more than anything is the rule of law and certainty. You will now see the pullout of EU institutions and personnel and a withdrawal of foreign investment. Keep in mind that the UK's foreign direct investment is NOT immobile like in other places. For example, the UK economy does not depend largely on export of resources which are immobile (like oil, gold, uranium, etc) meaning that a foreign investor can easily pick up their investment and move it into a more stable region like the EU or elsewhere. Investors don't have that same option with say, oil, which is a limited resource present in significant quantities in a small handful of countries. Why would a financial institution risk uncertainty in the UK when they can have certainty in the US or the EU?

I don't buy for a second that your average person who voted Leave understands any of this. But that is the nature of a referendum and the nature of the Remain side having run a terrible and useless campaign.

Time for Toronto to take over the high finance mantle!

 

[mama cass]

Most people would view Hilary as center Left in the US, more center in Europe.

Irvine, in Europe, i believe the whole scale shifts a lot further to the left compared with the US, and even Democrats are at least close to if not further right than the British Conservatives... i think our Socialists (here in France) would be seen as Communists over there

it's the same between France and the UK - the Conservative equivalent in France are not as far right as the Conservatives in Britain

 

[mama cass]

ha i did the Political Compass thing - i'm a far-left Libertarian apparently, south-west of the Greens - god knows who i should vote for

 

[mama cass]

It certainly wouldn't be an overnight change, it would take many years and really, if the left-wing leader of a non-governing party cops so much crap even before he gets elected as the leader - then it's a bit daunting to imagine how it'd be like if he was in power for any length of time. He'd have very little support among the mainstream media, which would prove an impediment to making the aforementioned changes.

this whole demolition of Labour right now is nothing but a diversion for the Tories to avoid scrutiny over this mess - it's sickening...

 

[Vlad n U 2]

this whole demolition of Labour right now is nothing but a diversion for the Tories to avoid scrutiny over this mess - it's sickening...

Tories relieved they really didn't have to do much! I read Diane Abbott's Guardian article today, there was a mention of many Labour MPs hurling insults at Jeremy Corbyn during the meeting. Though I figured he's thick skinned enough to deal with whatever comes his way.

I still struggle to understand how many people at all could sympathise with the coup plotters in this.

 

[mama cass]

Tories relieved they really didn't have to do much! I read Diane Abbott's Guardian article today, there was a mention of many Labour MPs hurling insults at Jeremy Corbyn during the meeting. Though I figured he's thick skinned enough to deal with whatever comes his way.

I still struggle to understand how many people at all could sympathise with the coup plotters in this.

it's actually making me feel completely ill, it's horrible - i could never have actually imagined something like this

i am reaaaally hoping Corbyn will stand his ground - if Cameron wants him out (he actually said to him "for god's sake man, GO") then he definitely should stay - hopefully his supporters will remain loyal... from what i'm reading, many are sick of the Blairites and feel it's time for new politics - i hope he will be able to deliver...

 

[Vlad n U 2]

To mobilise 10,000 supporters within short notice is pretty impressive, and I certainly doubt you'd have as many coming out for say, Ed Milliband or any potential new Labour leader. I think he has enough grassroots support and that he's attracted those on the left usually very reluctant to be positive towards Labour otherwise.

 

[BVS]

You're a believer in the horseshoe theory? There's absolutely no legitimate basis for that, and honestly, it's borderline insulting. Especially since ideologies on either end are complete opposites and that it is absolutely shameful on your part to suggest they have much in common.

Ideologies might be opposites, but there's a lot of crossover in what attracts people to those extremes, tactics, traits, and without talking for Irvine, I think that's what he's getting at.

In the US for example our two current extremes have a lot of crossover; they're both post fact, both driven by and scapegoat "the system" yet ironically they're both calling for more system as the answer, they're both stricken with racism and sexism, and both have an absolute hatred for anything Clinton.

 

[Popmartijn]

Most people would view Hilary as center Left in the US, more center in Europe.

I'd say that in general the Democrats are viewed as center-right to the rest of the world. There is no real (viable) left in the USA. You could probably say that Sanders was center-left.

In my eyes Dutch anti-islam, anti-EU, anti-everything politician Wilders and his party are then very close to the Republican party. And yes, with Wilders being a Trump-like figure, though more political savvy.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

Ideologies might be opposites, but there's a lot of crossover in what attracts people to those extremes, tactics, traits, and without talking for Irvine, I think that's what he's getting at.

In the US for example our two current extremes have a lot of crossover; they're both post fact, both driven by and scapegoat "the system" yet ironically they're both calling for more system as the answer, they're both stricken with racism and sexism, and both have an absolute hatred for anything Clinton.

Look, I think this is a more reasonable response than what Irvine provided. If you're speaking purely as far as populist left and right goes, in this case Sanders and Trump - who don't necessarily offer significant overhauls of the current system even despite railing against what they perceive as being the establishment, then I understand your reasoning here (even if I don't necessarily see it the same way, especially in regards to what you suggest is rampant sexism/racism in Sanders fanzones, and I can't quite say I agree that Sanders' opposition to Clinton is quite on par with Trump's). And yes, in this case, I would not suggest that Sanders and Trump are exact opposites for sure. With Irvine's posting in this particular thread, it's easy to get the idea that he's talking on a universal political level rather than simply just the US (or just the UK).

 

[iron yuppie]

Ideologies might be opposites, but there's a lot of crossover in what attracts people to those extremes, tactics, traits, and without talking for Irvine, I think that's what he's getting at.

In the US for example our two current extremes have a lot of crossover; they're both post fact, both driven by and scapegoat "the system" yet ironically they're both calling for more system as the answer, they're both stricken with racism and sexism, and both have an absolute hatred for anything Clinton.

These are all superficial observations, though - basically saying people on either end are disaffected, which is to be expected the further one drifts from the center. I think Vlad is right that the two are not ideologically comparable: the "far left" is about equity and the "far right" is about inequity. I know how fashionable it is in here to hate on Bernie, but I would wager you would much rather see him in the White House than Trump.

Furthermore, reducing far right / far left in the US to Trump vs Sanders respectively is a fallacy; those who really are on either end of the spectrum probably have no interest in either of those candidates.

 

[mama cass]

To mobilise 10,000 supporters within short notice is pretty impressive, and I certainly doubt you'd have as many coming out for say, Ed Milliband or any potential new Labour leader. I think he has enough grassroots support and that he's attracted those on the left usually very reluctant to be positive towards Labour otherwise.

let's hope so

 

[Popmartijn]

Agreed about the attractiveness of stability for investors, but I would disagree that the EU has been stable or that it will be in the future. The Euro has been fluctuating rather badly and the entire edifice is being weighed down by a couple of severely flagging economies in Greece and Spain, with more likely on the way.

I think you're now making the mistake of looking at the EU as a whole instead of its member states separately. Yes, not every economy is in strong shape, but many are. So those are attractive for investors for its economical climate. What is very important for many companies investing in a EU country is its access to the common market, the other EU economies. And that is where it'll hurt the UK. Investing in the UK does not mean anymore having access to the rest of the EU. For that you'll have to invest in an EU-member country. Now, this does not mean that there'll be no investment in the UK at all. But for a European HQ a company will likely choose another country.

Admittedly I don't know how entangled the UK is in the financial structure of the EU (whether they are paying into the central bank or anything like that), but seems to be dissociated themselves from all that is a good idea.

London is a prime financial hub, with many banks and HQs located there. Question is now how much of it will move to another country once the UK is out of the EU. I understand that Frankfurt, Amsterdam and probably Paris are likely contenders. The UK's influence in the financial structure of Europe will certainly decrease.

The big winner from all this will probably be the US in that even more investment will flock over here.

If you want to have access to the European markets you will have to invest in the EU. So I'm not sure if the US will be the big winner.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

These are all superficial observations, though - basically saying people on either end are disaffected, which is to be expected the further one drifts from the center. I think Vlad is right that the two are not ideologically comparable: the "far left" is about equity and the "far right" is about inequity. I know how fashionable it is in here to hate on Bernie, but I would wager you would much rather see him in the White House than Trump.

Furthermore, reducing far right / far left in the US to Trump vs Sanders respectively is a fallacy; those who really are on either end of the spectrum probably have no interest in either of those candidates.

Generally agreed, although there have been white supremacists/fascists who have attended/supported Trump rallies - it's a fairly common occurrence. Anti-capitalists have been largely skeptical of Sanders from what I've seen, but he has received plenty of attention.

 

[BVS]

These are all superficial observations, though - basically saying people on either end are disaffected, which is to be expected the further one drifts from the center. I think Vlad is right that the two are not ideologically comparable: the "far left" is about equity and the "far right" is about inequity.

Well in theory, but we all know practice is something entirely different.

I know how fashionable it is in here to hate on Bernie, but I would wager you would much rather see him in the White House than Trump.

You keep saying this, but no one in here is just fashionably "hating" on Bernie. Personally I'd be weary of both, but from a practical standpoint you're probably right.

Furthermore, reducing far right / far left in the US to Trump vs Sanders respectively is a fallacy; those who really are on either end of the spectrum probably have no interest in either of those candidates.

Well these are the current extremes in our political climate; there isn't a loud enough Anarchist or Fascist voice to be included in this conversation.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Well... UK kicked out Churchill after WWII also by democratic means.

Churchill wasn't exactly the brilliant, reasonable man history paints him to be.

 

[iron yuppie]

I think you're now making the mistake of looking at the EU as a whole instead of its member states separately. Yes, not every economy is in strong shape, but many are. So those are attractive for investors for its economical climate. What is very important for many companies investing in a EU country is its access to the common market, the other EU economies. And that is where it'll hurt the UK. Investing in the UK does not mean anymore having access to the rest of the EU. For that you'll have to invest in an EU-member country. Now, this does not mean that there'll be no investment in the UK at all. But for a European HQ a company will likely choose another country.

This makes sense, but for me this underscores a problem with the logic of the EU. Why put up red tape for investors or companies at all? By doing so you are forcing a choice that doesn't need to be there in the first place and in the process reducing surplus. Why not have a free-trade zone among European countries or even a larger conglomerate and get rid of the common currency and central bank? There is going to be UK/Eurozone integration regardless of the UK's membership - why not make it easy rather than difficult?

 

[anitram]

The EU, for all its faults, did force a number of poor, mostly Eastern European/Balkan states to undergo significant economic reforms and cut down on corruption (nowhere near good enough but also considerably better than before). The impetus for those changes would certainly NOT have been there if you just proposed a free trade Eurozone. A free-trade zone also doesn't address the flow of labour.

 

[Irvine511]

Irvine, in Europe, i believe the whole scale shifts a lot further to the left compared with the US, and even Democrats are at least close to if not further right than the British Conservatives... i think our Socialists (here in France) would be seen as Communists over there

it's the same between France and the UK - the Conservative equivalent in France are not as far right as the Conservatives in Britain

depends on the issue though, yes? economically, the US is much more to the right than Europe, but when it comes to immigration, notions of culture and identity, etc., Europe seems more conservative. we don't really have American equivalents to UKIP or the National Front -- their platforms seem (to me, an outsider) to be economically more populist and protectionist (left-ish) but culturally much more conservative (basically racist and anti-immigrant). we may be seeing some of this in the US, though, which is new, with the rise of Trump (although looks like he's going to get clobbered in the general election).

but on the whole, we don't have perfect alignments between the US/North America and Europe. we can find issues to compare and contrast, but what broadly constitutes the Left and the Right have different issues.

what i'm noticing -- despite how "shameful" it is -- is that there's a growing economic populism on the Left and on the Right. it's been noted in the US that there is a clear overlap between Bernie votes and Trump voters -- that people who have been left behind by globalization are looking to reverse their downward economic trajectories and diminishing opportunities. Trump blames immigrants, Sanders blames Wall Street, but both are highly suspicious of so-called "elites" -- as noted in the vague Greenwald article from earlier that i'm seeing in the feeds of my most leftist friends on FB -- and both sides seem utterly convinced that "the mainstream media" is conspiring against them.

it's an interesting phenomenon and i don't think we really know what it is yet, but, yes, the far Left and the far Right are finding common economic ground.

 

[Irvine511]

I'd say that in general the Democrats are viewed as center-right to the rest of the world. There is no real (viable) left in the USA. You could probably say that Sanders was center-left.

In my eyes Dutch anti-islam, anti-EU, anti-everything politician Wilders and his party are then very close to the Republican party. And yes, with Wilders being a Trump-like figure, though more political savvy.

economically, yes. and also on issues of global security (though the US is in a rather unique position making it impossible to compare with any other country).

i wouldn't put the Republicans on the same ground as the European Right when it comes to immigration/Islam. at least not the Romney crowd (the low-tax economic conservatives). the Trump voters, to me, seem a closer comparison. and this is why the Republicans are fracturing.

 

[Irvine511]

I think Vlad is right that the two are not ideologically comparable: the "far left" is about equity and the "far right" is about inequity.

and this is what i think is changing.

look at Trump's economic platform.

Defying Republican orthodoxy, Trump trashes trade deals and advocates tariffs


MONESSEN, Pa. — Donald Trump on Tuesday channeled more than a year’s worth of fiery and freewheeling protectionist rhetoric into an uncharacteristically disciplined address, putting him out of step with decades of conservative economic orthodoxy and even some of his own prior positions.

Speaking in a warehouse filled with piles of compressed aluminum cans and scraps of metal, Trump ticked through a seven-step plan to boost domestic job growth that included renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement, labeling China a currency manipulator, and withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal and preventing its implementation.

At a rally in Ohio hours later, Trump said the trade pact was being “pushed by special interests who want to rape our country,” repeating “rape” several times.

The presumptive GOP presidential nominee mentioned Britain’s recent decision to leave the European Union, saying that “our friends in Britain recently voted to take back control of their economy” and that “now it’s time for the American people to take back their future.” Quoting Founding Fathers and former presidents, Trump said international trade agreements have left American workers behind.

“On trade, on immigration, on foreign policy, we are going to put America first again,” Trump said. “We are going to make America wealthy again.”

Speaking in Monessen, Pa., Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said he would withdraw the U.S. from the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership. (Reuters)
He also took sharp aim at presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by invoking the populist attacks she has faced from her rival in the primaries, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

“People who rigged the system are supporting Hillary Clinton because they know as long as she is in charge, nothing’s going to change,” Trump said.

The speech highlighted one of the key areas of disagreement pitting Trump against business leaders and establishment Republicans, who for decades have advocated free-trade policies and have generally opposed tariffs and other measures.

(and, sorry for all the responses, i should be multiquoting)

 

[iron yuppie]

it's an interesting phenomenon and i don't think we really know what it is yet, but, yes, the far Left and the far Right are finding common economic ground.

Isn't this the case in the aftermath of any economic downturn, though, where people who have suffered look to blame someone or something for that suffering?

 

[Irvine511]

Isn't this the case in the aftermath of any economic downturn, though, where people who have suffered look to blame someone or something for that suffering?

yes. it wouldn't surprise me that a lot of these political shifts are due to the recession.

would the GOP of 2004 even recognize the GOP of 2016?