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Old 07-13-2016, 08:38 AM   #466
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It is actually true, in the context that it was written. Everything that has happened so far has been speculative. As I know you know, the formal process has not been initiated. Since the referendum, anything that's taken place is based upon speculation.
speculation? you think the UK having no leader since the 24th, multiple resignations and all the political parties in disarray is simple speculation? this situation is unprecedented and no-one knows if or when or how Art. 50 will ever be triggered, so of course it has had very real repercussions on all levels as everyone tries to cover their asse(t)s

you're just messing with words here! i understand you're not in Europe so can only assume from your comments you clearly have limited understanding of the repercussions of this whole sh!tstorm lol
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Old 07-13-2016, 08:43 AM   #467
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speculation? you think the UK having no leader since the 24th, multiple resignations and all the political parties in disarray is simple speculation? this situation is unprecedented and no-one knows if or when or how Art. 50 will ever be triggered, so of course it has had very real repercussions as everyone tries to cover their asse(t)s

you're just messing with words here!

Why is this such a surprise? Yes, speculation. Article 50, not yet in action. The UK, still a member of the EU. So far, everything that has happened has been based upon speculation of what the future holds for the UK.

I'm not "messing with words." This is currently the case. It's a black-and-white discussion. Now, please go back and read that in the proper context. Yes, the economic response (and particularly the response of the GBP) has been one of speculation. That's what political instability does.
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Old 07-13-2016, 08:47 AM   #468
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Why is this such a surprise? Yes, speculation. Article 50, not yet in action. The UK, still a member of the EU. So far, everything that has happened has been based upon speculation of what the future holds for the UK.

I'm not "messing with words." This is currently the case. It's a black-and-white discussion. Now, please go back and read that in the proper context. Yes, the economic response (and particularly the response of the GBP) has been one of speculation. That's what political instability does.
jeesus christ, please... i won't discuss this with you any further - you've made a whole load of sweeping statements about Britain and this situation that show you have no or very little clue what you're talking about...

this is just the tip of the iceberg - if Art. 50 is triggered, then we have 2 years until we're out, and that isn't long enough to rewrite/renegotiate 40 years of legislation and trade agreements = instability; if parliament decides to ignore Art. 50, then we risk massive civil unrest = instability - either way it looks grim; while waiting for Art. 50 to be triggered/rejected = instability - technically on paper nothing may have happened, but in the real world it's a different story
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Old 07-13-2016, 08:58 AM   #469
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jeesus christ, please... i won't discuss this with you any further - you've made a whole load of sweeping statements about Britain and this situation that show you have no clue what you're talking about...

What is your problem? What a fucking rude thing to say. If you want to attack my intellect, let's have at your sparkling personality at the moment. I didn't say shit directed at you whatsoever.
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Old 07-13-2016, 09:06 AM   #470
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speculation? you think the UK having no leader since the 24th, multiple resignations and all the political parties in disarray is simple speculation? this situation is unprecedented and no-one knows if or when or how Art. 50 will ever be triggered, so of course it has had very real repercussions on all levels as everyone tries to cover their asse(t)s

you're just messing with words here! i understand you're not in Europe so can only assume from your comments you clearly have limited understanding of the repercussions of this whole sh!tstorm lol
No one is denying there have been immediate repercussions, but you're doing a lot of doomsaying in the last few posts as well. It's not as though the entire world is going to refuse to transact business with one of the largest economies and most spend-happy consumer bases on earth just because they don't have the tag "EU" on them anymore.
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Old 07-13-2016, 09:11 AM   #471
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No one is denying there have been immediate repercussions, but you're doing a lot of doomsaying in the last few posts as well. It's not as though the entire world is going to refuse to transact business with one of the largest economies and most spend-happy consumer bases on earth just because they don't have the tag "EU" on them anymore.
the worry is the amount of time it will take to draw up and enter into new agreements - businesses can't hang around for years waiting to see how things will pan out
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Old 07-13-2016, 09:11 AM   #472
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What is your problem? What a fucking rude thing to say. If you want to attack my intellect, let's have at your sparkling personality at the moment. I didn't say shit directed at you whatsoever.
probably about as rude as you were patronising
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Old 07-13-2016, 09:21 AM   #473
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probably about as rude as you were patronising

Why don't you bother to explain? I'm not patronizing you whatsoever. Sorry you feel that way.
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Old 07-13-2016, 09:52 AM   #474
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No one is denying there have been immediate repercussions, but you're doing a lot of doomsaying in the last few posts as well. It's not as though the entire world is going to refuse to transact business with one of the largest economies and most spend-happy consumer bases on earth just because they don't have the tag "EU" on them anymore.
The (uncertain) situation is not whether or not a country is refusing to transact business with the UK, but under which conditions. Consider the following example: The UK has left the EU and is on its own. You have a US business manufacturing (and selling) electronics and want to supply retailers in the UK. Will you have to pay custom duties (and/or other taxes) when the products enter the UK? If so, how much? Are there other regulations your product has to comply with? And of course vice versa, what will the situation be for a UK manufacturer exporting to the USA?
In the end there will likely be some kind of trade agreement between the UK and the USA. But how long it will take and what it will cover is uncertain for now. And until that agreement is there the trade will likely be restricted by the WTO standards (and tariffs). Whose conditions/restrictions are worse than what's covered in current EU-US trade agreements.
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Old 07-13-2016, 10:25 AM   #475
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It's not as though the entire world is going to refuse to transact business with one of the largest economies and most spend-happy consumer bases on earth just because they don't have the tag "EU" on them anymore.
Of course not, but will countries be willing to enter in a trade agreement as beneficial to the UK as the current EU agreements are?
I am sure the US will be trying to get a better deal with the UK than they have with the EU. I think most countries will.
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Old 07-13-2016, 10:29 AM   #476
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It is actually true, in the context that it was written. Everything that has happened so far has been speculative. As I know you know, the formal process has not been initiated. Since the referendum, anything that's taken place is based upon speculation.
As mama cass pointed out, the current standing of the GBP and British stock exchange is the result of the political unrest caused by the referendum, not by a pending Brexit.
The break on foreign investments in the UK also won't help the situation in the short term.
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Old 07-13-2016, 10:39 AM   #477
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As mama cass pointed out, the current standing of the GBP and British stock exchange is the result of the political unrest caused by the referendum, not by a pending Brexit.

The break on foreign investments in the UK also won't help the situation in the short term.

I never disagreed with any of this. It's the very point I've made. The markets respond to the politics first. That's what we are seeing now. The actual consequence, short term (1-2 years) will start unfolding once you the action unfolds. And long term, it's uncertain how the UK will recover from the looming economic downfall. A lot of that rests upon politics, and what decisions are made both in the UK and in the EU.
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Old 07-13-2016, 05:14 PM   #478
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Boris Johnson is the new Foreign Minister. Did PM May think she needed to appoint someone who can relate to Donald Trump on a blowhard to bloward basis?
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Old 07-13-2016, 05:30 PM   #479
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The (uncertain) situation is not whether or not a country is refusing to transact business with the UK, but under which conditions. Consider the following example: The UK has left the EU and is on its own. You have a US business manufacturing (and selling) electronics and want to supply retailers in the UK. Will you have to pay custom duties (and/or other taxes) when the products enter the UK? If so, how much? Are there other regulations your product has to comply with? And of course vice versa, what will the situation be for a UK manufacturer exporting to the USA?
In the end there will likely be some kind of trade agreement between the UK and the USA. But how long it will take and what it will cover is uncertain for now. And until that agreement is there the trade will likely be restricted by the WTO standards (and tariffs). Whose conditions/restrictions are worse than what's covered in current EU-US trade agreements.
Those are certainly good questions, and it's likely going to take plenty of time (and fancy meetings) to hammer out the details. Same goes for the UK and EU.

U.S. markets seem to have recovered from the initial shock.

For perspective, the UK is somewhere between the fifth and seventh largest trading partner with the U.S., depending on the year and source you choose.
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Old 07-13-2016, 06:15 PM   #480
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Boris Johnson is the new Foreign Minister. Did PM May think she needed to appoint someone who can relate to Donald Trump on a blowhard to bloward basis?
it's like a cruel cruel joke
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