Australian federal election: 7 September

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How I voted for House of Reps.

Sex Party
Greens
ALP
Independent Nathan Mullins
Stable Population Party
DLP Democratic Labour
Palmer United Party
Liberal
Rise Up Australia Party
Australian Christians
Family First

Voted 1 Greens above the line for the Senate.
 
Holy shit you've got a whole bunch of nutty candidates there from 5th to 11th. You even get the fundamentalist trifecta in your electorate! How awful.
 
I got the CEC's newspaper in my mailbox the other day. I must say its expose on the British Royal family's plans for global genocide might blow the doors off this election.

"You only need to blow the bloody doors off!"
 
All I can imagine is Prince Phillip with an AK47 shooting down poor people.
 
cobl04 said:
Yeah, it was pretty bad. What is the trifecta? Rise Up/Aus Christians/Family First?
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That's the one. Gets even better in NSW because Fred Nile's mob are in the mix too. Charlotte was looking at their policies the other day and they're even crazier than you expect. Yeah, I didn't think that was possible either.
 
At least the HS doesn't stoop this low.

804939930.jpg
 
Someone needs to somehow take/find a picture of a Murdoch/Abbott embrace akin to that of Brezhnev/Honecker.
 
For me the abiding Murdoch/Abbott image, although I can't be bothered tracking it down, was that Institute of Public Affairs function earlier in the year. Abbott is kind of squatting/kneeling attentively by Murdoch's chair at this one table. Rupert isn't even looking at him.
 
I just about cried laughing at that at work earlier.
 
Leigh Sales stumped Tone multiple times on the 7:30 Report tonight. It was great.
 
Everytime I think of GOB Bluth as my prime minister, I feel like curling up in the shower and weeping for a while.

Say he wins: I hope for a very unfriendly senate and a bad case of imperial overreach, resulting in a manic rush to new election in under two years.
 
I'm genuinely worried about the Senate, actually. The Coalition probably won't get a majority, but the more I look at the polling, the preference flows, and Antony Green's calculator, the more I fear the balance of power won't be held by the Greens but by a ragtag bunch of largely right-wing independents.

The following parties, in my estimation, are all in the running to hold seats in the Senate:
Greens - duh. Six of their Senators are only halfway through their terms; three are up for re-election. Sarah Hanson-Young is facing an uphill battle in SA due to poor preference flows. Scott Ludlam might have a bit of a challenge too. Peter Whish-Wilson will be fine in Tasmania. Not sure if they can make any gains anywhere - Victoria is a good chance. A second in Tasmania is unlikely, though they'll stay in the count for a good while.
Katter's Australian Party - look a good chance to pick up a Queensland seat.
Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party - will stay in the race for a while in Queensland due to good preferencing flows; probably can't get over the line but they're a dark horse.
Family First - have favourable preferences in Victoria, Queensland, and Tasmania.
Shooters and Fishers - definitely in contention for NSW's final seat.
One Nation - disturbingly likely to actually get that final NSW seat.
Sex Party - were looking good to challenge for Victoria's final seat until a cabal of right-wing micro-parties failed to register preferences in time. I don't think they will scrape over the line now.
Wikileaks - were also looking to challenge for Victoria's final seat but I think they have faded now, especially after their serious fragmentation over preferences.
Nick Xenophon Group - he's got one SA seat wrapped up. Can he repeat his state feat and poll well enough to bring a friend? Surely not.
Australian First Nations Party - very possible to get a Northern Territory seat. The ALP are currently just above a quota, but their support has slipped in the Territory; if it slips below a quota, even by half a percent, First Nations will be in because EVERYBODY is preferencing them above the ALP. This is pretty much the first time the Territory's had a meaningful contest for the Senate.
(Plus the DLP's John Madigan will still be rocking around as he's only halfway through his term.)

You see what I mean? My estimation is that the Greens will win 2 seats nationally (so down 1 for a total of 8), Xenophon will retain his SA seat, One Nation will win in NSW, Katter's candidate will win in Queensland, and Family First will possibly win 1 somewhere. Too tough to call the Territory race, so let's leave it out. That would be a crossbench of 13 Senators when you add the DLP. The Coalition should remain around their current tally of 34, give or take one. That means to pass legislation they will just need to court four or five Senators - allowing them to cut out the Greens entirely. Most of the rest of the crossbench are on the right, and some like Pauline are totally crazy. This could lead to ugly legislation.
 
There might, I say might, be a little joy in Katter's mob (if any eventuate). Katter's basically old Labor, Queensland-style. That's why it wasn't nonsense that he could claim to 'work with Rudd'. He is an economic nationalist. It all comes down to what aspects of the Coalition's agenda dominate. Tony is DLP through and through. But's he's weak and a figurehead (I think, maybe). Hockey and other senior figures are itching to try on the local version of austerity in the name of ideological purity. So it's a tug of war.

I agree though that the sheer plethora of microparties are maybe a worry. The trouble is the process by which the chips fall is so byzantine that I doubt any of us can really say what Saturday's outcome will be.

I also agree that (Sex Party whatever, who the hell are they anyway), most non-Greens contenders are broadly of the right. So yeah ok, it's not totally comforting.
 
I am referring to the senate. The process by which candidates get up, or not, in the senate.

The lower house is much less opaque.
 
Kieran McConville said:
There might, I say might, be a little joy in Katter's mob (if any eventuate). Katter's basically old Labor, Queensland-style. That's why it wasn't nonsense that he could claim to 'work with Rudd'. He is an economic nationalist. It all comes down to what aspects of the Coalition's agenda dominate. Tony is DLP through and through. But's he's weak and a figurehead (I think, maybe). Hockey and other senior figures are itching to try on the local version of austerity in the name of ideological purity. So it's a tug of war.
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Yeah, this is the funny thing about a KAP Senator - it's hard to say whether they would favour the Coalition or the ALP's objectives in a finely-balanced Senate. I wonder how much it will have to do with who leads the ALP after the election and whether Katter is willing to co-operate with them. Certainly though on a range of issues a KAP Senator is not half as dangerous as One Nation or Family First holding the balance of power.

I agree though that the sheer plethora of microparties are maybe a worry. The trouble is the process by which the chips fall is so byzantine that I doubt any of us can really say what Saturday's outcome will be.

I also agree that (Sex Party whatever, who the hell are they anyway), most non-Greens contenders are broadly of the right. So yeah ok, it's not totally comforting.
Click to expand...

I think it's going to come down to how good a showing the Greens have and how much the ALP hold on to. At the moment it's ALP 31 and Green 9; together they can only lose one seat to maintain a majority in the Senate. I think it's 17 of the ALP's 31 are up for re-election, so with a swing on against them that could hurt (or arcane preference deals could stem the bloodflow). Like I said before, Greens at least only have 3 of the 9 up for re-election but how many can be returned? Worst-case is 1 but best-case is 5, which could help cling to the balance of power. Even if ALP/Green get reduced to one seat below a majority, Xenophon is probably more likely to work with them - though also he's very likely to be bought off by the Coalition with presents and trinkets for South Australia.
 
I would not want to have to count on Xenophon, no. He's probably an ok guy as far as it goes, but strikes me as the sort of post-ideological single-issue figure that will go along with any old thing (as long as pet issue x gets ticked).

People decry partisanship, but partisanship is politics.

Meanwhile, Rudd seems able to perform only when he's up against the wall with a firing squad already locking and loading.
 
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