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Old 08-04-2013, 09:32 PM   #16
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I live in Queensland and sadly must concur a little bit. The fall of Goss (in retrospect a minor blip in two decades of wall to wall Labor hegemony; we Queenslanders like our autocracy) was a harbinger of Keating's loss in 96.
God I hope enough Queenslanders in swing seats are angry enough about Campbell Newman's twattery to help the ALP to a few gains. I've just looked through the seats now. The seat of Brisbane is a very good chance of swinging back to the ALP. If things go well, the ALP could also pick up Bonner, Herbert, Longman, and maybe Flynn. Dawson and Forde are also surprisingly close but typically go LNP and I doubt this election is one where they would swing back.

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Oh and I see today Abbott lays it on the line: he will not be party to a minority government. So in the event of another hung parliament: Tony Abbott will never be the Prime Minister of Australia. He's a gutless wonder.
Hahaha. Bet you that if we get another hung parliament, Abbott will immediately renege on that and start offering bits of the moon to crossbenchers. The man thinks he's divinely predestined to rule Australia.

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As to whether it would be a 'rout' under a hypothetical Turnbull leadership, i dunno. Yes, Labor might well lose in such a situation, but: they'd be losing to someone who probably, in his heart of hearts sees eye to eye on them regarding matters like the NBN and carbon pricing.
I thought this was a good article on why a Turnbull comeback would boost the Coalition's chances against Rudd: Malcolm in the middle: why the Coalition might turn to Turnbull | World news | theguardian.com

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What's all this about? What is calling parliament?
Parliament has to sit a certain amount of times during a term, as required by the constitution. To make life easier, it publishes a schedule of when sittings will be, and the next session was scheduled to begin on 20 August. Now, the schedule is not binding; the PM can call an early or emergency session whenever they like, especially if a crisis develops, and if there is little business to do or a later session is more convenient for whatever reason (like to avoid clashing with a major summit or the Olympics), the PM can bump the session back. The thing is, had Rudd waited until after 20 August to announce the election, it would have looked VERY dodgy if he had not called parliament as scheduled. He would've been fully within his rights not to call it, and he could've made a good case about it being a waste of time, but the Coalition would have got massive mileage out of it anyway.

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The chances that anyone involved would subject the nation to another election within days are, infintisemal.
It would be fascinating to see what happens if we have another hung parliament, not enough of the crossbench will support the ALP, and Abbott sticks to his promise not to lead a minority government. I think it would lead to one of two scenarios: 1. the Libs roll Tony in favour of Turnbull or anybody else who will negotiate, and they secure government; 2. the nation is subjected to another election and the Coalition is punished hard for making it happen, leading to a comfy majority for the ALP (a man can dream).

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That said, it's not as though a party can't gather its elected members any old time, if the occasion is pressing enough. I mean, you know, if Tony Abbott murdered a dog and drank its blood on tv or something.
Let's make this happen.
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Old 08-04-2013, 09:58 PM   #17
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Hey guys, who do you think The Tele is supporting this election?

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Old 08-04-2013, 10:02 PM   #18
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The thing about minority government... I actually strongly doubt there will be another hung parliament, but if there were... Tony Abbott had his chance to be a statesman in 2010. I mean, it was there for the taking. The rest is history.
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Old 08-04-2013, 10:02 PM   #19
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Hey guys, who do you think The Tele is supporting this election?

I guess they got Rupert's tweets.
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Old 08-04-2013, 10:07 PM   #20
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A lot of people on Twitter rebutting criticism with crap like "well I have to pay for the leftist propaganda of the ABC & SBS".

ABC may lean left but I don't see them being quite so obviously biased...
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Old 08-04-2013, 10:07 PM   #21
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I thought this was a good article on why a Turnbull comeback would boost the Coalition's chances against Rudd: Malcolm in the middle: why the Coalition might turn to Turnbull | World news | theguardian.com
Interesting, yes. Still, the election has begun. To flip out at this point? Imagine the disarray, and never mind how middle-of-the-road electable Turnbull may be.
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Old 08-04-2013, 10:08 PM   #22
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A lot of people on Twitter rebutting criticism with crap like "well I have to pay for the leftist propaganda of the ABC & SBS".

ABC may lean left but I don't see them being quite so obviously biased...
I would challenge the notion that the ABC leans left at all. It is a gutted shell of its former self.
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Old 08-04-2013, 10:29 PM   #23
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Anyone who thinks the ABC and SBS lean left is kidding themselves. To whatever extent they do still lean, the ABC and SBS only lean towards whatever side of politics will give them what they want - money, independence, and money - and that just so happens to be the left. If Tony Abbott announced today that he would triple the ABC's budget and give SBS the Soccer World Cup for the next millennium, they'll come out all guns blazing for the Coalition I assure you.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 08-04-2013, 10:32 PM   #24
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I can't remember what ABC was like before 2010 as I didn't care about politics then.
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Old 08-04-2013, 10:42 PM   #25
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Incidentally, I see a lot of outrage about that Tele headline (as a Greens voter, I don't entirely disagree either, but in a different way to what they mean!), but it really does seem to depend on how you view the media's role in politics. Is it a neutral arbiter, can it be so, and should it be so?

As a teenager, I had this idealised perspective of the media as some fairly neutral ground, with news and opinion clearly delineated. Now, as a historian, I spend my days with nineteenth century newspapers, and this was a time when a partisan press was considered a normal and desirable aspect of society. Everything about the press was political. Rival newspapers tended to define the political divisions of towns, and leading politicians owned or wrote for the papers (and in those days contributions were not credited). I'm now so used to the partisan nature of papers that I find it unremarkable in today's press - to me press neutrality seems to be a failed ambition of the mid-twentieth century. The Murdoch press's reporting of news is clearly heavily skewed and the game's too far gone to stop that. This has been a great lost opportunity of the left; by not pushing hard enough, early enough, the Murdoch press managed to establish right-leaning spin as fairly typical of a paper, and the left has yet to seriously challenge it. Fairfax fucked this up hard. Even the Guardian has not presented anything more than a soft left perspective.

If anything, Murdoch's been more successful at this in Australia than the US. We may think of Fox when we think of blatantly partisan right wing politics, but although it's influential, it's essentially marked out a minority sphere of influence and that's it. Meanwhile, in Australia, Murdoch controls 60% of the press, including the only major dailies in many capitals, and his influence has seeped into the way other news outlets - like Fairfax and the ABC - present their news. Fox News wishes it had the influence and power over CNN, MSNBC, etc., that News Limited has here.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 08-04-2013, 11:37 PM   #26
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I keep on reading the title as 'Australian fedora election' and I don't know if it makes me happy or angry.
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Old 08-05-2013, 12:22 AM   #27
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I wholly agree that the press (or its online successors) are partisan, or will tend that way. And the rags of the nineteenth century may well point the way to a kind of future (or present, if you check out the blogosphere!).

The problem isn't so much partisanship, as partisanship that dare not speak its name.

Whither public broadcasters in such a world, I'm not sure. And that worries me. There should be something like an ABC. It just should be better than it is.
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Old 08-05-2013, 10:46 PM   #28
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This is excruciating. Liberal candidate for Greenway bumbles his way through a six-minute interview on Liberal policy and doesn't manage to get a single point across. Terrific interviewing as well, not enough journalists go this far.

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Old 08-06-2013, 01:39 AM   #29
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Shit happens.
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Old 08-06-2013, 02:27 AM   #30
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You know what really pisses me off about the beige drivel we are fed during election campaigns in recent years is that: politics really does matter. It matters like hell. You wouldn't know it from the 'go back to sleep, Austraya' crap the candidates parrot. I feel like a pillow is being gently smoothed over my face sometimes. You end up with the situation of a somewhat decent government that couldn't sell crack to an addict. Rudd is a little above average in this regard, but he's no Hawke, no Keating. Fortunately for him, Abbott is, to put it mildly, no Fraser or Howard.

At least in the pre-television era, the era of townhall meetings and speeches from the back of trucks, it was harder to get away with such disconnect, such pretense that a few thousand swinging voters are the nation.
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