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View Poll Results: Choose your preferred candidate.
21st Century Australia 1 10.00%
Animal Justice Party 0 0%
Australia First 1 10.00%
Australian Antipaeodphile Party 0 0%
Australian Christians 0 0%
Country Party 0 0%
Cyclists Party 0 0%
Defence Veterans Party 0 0%
ALP 2 20.00%
Greens 2 20.00%
Liberal Party 0 0%
Motoring Enthusiasts Party 1 10.00%
Sex Party 0 0%
Bullet Train for Australia 1 10.00%
Family First 0 0%
Katter's Australia Party 0 0%
Liberal Democrats 0 0%
#Sustainable Australia 0 0%
Mature Australia Party 1 10.00%
Nick Xenophon Team 0 0%
Rise Up Australia 0 0%
Secular Party 0 0%
Seniors Party of Australia 1 10.00%
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party 0 0%
Smokers Rights Party 0 0%
Socialist Alliance Party 0 0%
Socialist Equality Party 0 0%
Voluntary Euthanasia Party 0 0%
VOTEFLUX.ORG | Upgrade Democracy! 0 0%
Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop the Greens) 0 0%
Voters: 10. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-04-2016, 03:01 AM   #106
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I don't know why The Guardian is saying a Coalition government is 'more likely than not'. At this stage, it's far from clear to me that this is the case.
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Old 07-04-2016, 04:51 AM   #107
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Originally Posted by cobl04 View Post

And if we don't swallow a hard truth soon, and try to do something about disaffected, scared Australians, then it might become too late.

You can sweep a few things under the rug. It's not so easy to sweep five million things under the rug.

Right on, but how do we tackle that problem? It'll surely take generations to establish any real cut-through with whatever the answer might be.

Hanson's supporters are proudly (if unknowingly) anti-intellectual and stubborn. I have one on my Facebook. It's incredible how conversation flows with this man when I try to engage with him. How do we intellectualise the likes of him?

I agree with Vlad, media outlets like 7 are complicit in giving her alarmingly simple but straightforward views such a frequent exposure.

But in some respects it is better that they are giving the unreasonable alarmist like Hanson this mainstream exposure, rather than allowing her followers to gravitate towards a Fortitude, ALA or Nalliah's Rise Uppers, who establish contrived but powerful "reason" to justify their hateful bigotry.

It's a crappy situation to be in regardless... Up to 6 seats to One Nation?! I honestly thought she was old news to the far-right and there were better options for them out there now. But I suppose they are quite regressive in their thought process.


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Old 07-04-2016, 05:03 AM   #108
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I had one yesterday on the same topic. Extremely racist (and possibly on drugs). But I felt we were having a peaceful disagreement. Then I had friends pick on grammar and spelling as well as question his parents' job bringing him up and it just descended into absolutely shocking stuff.

I think there's some other things at play. Seven deserves criticism but as I said they don't care. Ratings, money.

It was sickening to see how much coverage her press conference got today, because she just said some hideous things and was allowed to do so. It was fucking infuriating.

As someone on Twitter pointed out to me - we can ignore her shit but we have to try and sort out why so many people agree with her.

A fair whack of it can probably be explained by the demise of the Palmer United Party - a lot of Queenslanders would have gone to One Nation now they couldn't vote for PUP.

I'd MUCH rather her followers gravitate towards UPF/Fortitude/whatever, as their profile is garbage.
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Old 07-04-2016, 05:15 AM   #109
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Of interest - Labor has pulled ahead in the 2PP count.

ALP - 4,971,898
LNP - 4,926,197

This after a day where minimal pre-poll and postal votes were able to be counted. Interesting considering the LNP were up by about 1,000 votes this time yesterday.
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Old 07-04-2016, 05:21 AM   #110
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Also of interest:

The ABC have updated the 10 in doubt seats with a 'likely' result:

5 to the ALP, 4 to the LNP, 1 to NXT.

Leaving:

ALP: 72
LNP: 72
Other: 6

We are more than likely heading to another election. There is no way legislation passes through both houses with the profiles we have:

The 6 lower house micro/minor reps - 1 far left, 1 far right, 4 fairly centrist.
The 10 upper house micro/minor reps - wildly ranging across the spectrum.

To pass anything it has to appease the middle in the lower house, and the flanks in the senate. Just won't happen. They have to dissolve parliament again.
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Old 07-04-2016, 05:38 AM   #111
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People like to poke at Pauline Hanson over all sorts of things, but for me nothing beats putting her name to a 1998 book which asserted, among other things, that in 2050 Australia would have a lesbian president of Chinese-Indian background called Poona Li Hung who would be a cyborg.

That is a snapshot of a moment in time right there, my friends.
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Old 07-04-2016, 05:42 AM   #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dan_smee View Post
Also of interest:

The ABC have updated the 10 in doubt seats with a 'likely' result:

5 to the ALP, 4 to the LNP, 1 to NXT.

Leaving:

ALP: 72
LNP: 72
Other: 6

We are more than likely heading to another election. There is no way legislation passes through both houses with the profiles we have:

The 6 lower house micro/minor reps - 1 far left, 1 far right, 4 fairly centrist.
The 10 upper house micro/minor reps - wildly ranging across the spectrum.

To pass anything it has to appease the middle in the lower house, and the flanks in the senate. Just won't happen. They have to dissolve parliament again.
Well I don't know about the senate, but in your scenario just there, to pass the lower house (say Labor gets 72), it has to pass with Labor + Green (that's the 'far left'?) + Wilkie + maybe one or two Xenophon votes. + McGowan maybe, though I certainly wouldn't count on it.

We are most certainly not heading to another election. The public blowback would be catastrophic, possibly to both major parties.
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Old 07-04-2016, 05:45 AM   #113
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Well I don't know about the senate, but in your scenario just there, to pass the lower house (say Labor gets 72), it has to pass with Labor + Green (that's the 'far left'?) + Wilkie + maybe one or two Xenophon votes. + McGowan maybe, though I certainly wouldn't count on it.

We are most certainly not heading to another election. The public blowback would be catastrophic, possibly to both major parties.
There's no other way.

If it passes the lower house (big IF), then they need 9 or 10 of the micro party senators. So, agreement from Lazarus, Lambie, Hinch, Hanson, Xenophon, all the Greens, all of Labor, and some other nutbags.

I see very little legislation appeasing the lower house that has a chance of passing through that mess.
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Old 07-04-2016, 05:46 AM   #114
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By 'far left' I thought it meant I subconsciously became a candidate for HoR and won my own seat. Talk about having a guerilla candidacy.
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Old 07-04-2016, 05:52 AM   #115
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By 'far left' I thought it meant I subconsciously became a candidate for HoR and won my own seat. Talk about having a guerilla candidacy.
Lol - you and me both. In the context of the Australian political landscape.
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Old 07-04-2016, 05:52 AM   #116
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It's in the interests of all those lower house crossbenchers to get something out of this, whatever it says on the tin regarding their allegiences. No guarantee any of them would survive a new election.
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Old 07-04-2016, 05:54 AM   #117
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There's no other way.

If it passes the lower house (big IF), then they need 9 or 10 of the micro party senators. So, agreement from Lazarus, Lambie, Hinch, Hanson, Xenophon, all the Greens, all of Labor, and some other nutbags.

I see very little legislation appeasing the lower house that has a chance of passing through that mess.
Also, how does this follow? It's possible the Senate makeup will give a theoretical majority to Labor/Greens/XNT. Lazarus isn't even in the new senate.
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Old 07-04-2016, 05:55 AM   #118
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Katter, Bandt, McGowen, Wilkie are all incredibly safe. It would take a big swing in a short time to overturn Sharkie - so I'd say 5 would consider themselves safe.
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Old 07-04-2016, 06:03 AM   #119
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In any case, either you're right or you're wrong, mate. 'There's no other way' is awfully dogmatic talk, so if you're right, I guess I'd better pencil in an election for later this month.
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Old 07-04-2016, 06:07 AM   #120
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Also, how does this follow? It's possible the Senate makeup will give a theoretical majority to Labor/Greens/XNT. Lazarus isn't even in the new senate.
My mistake with Lazarus, but by my count on the ABC site we are looking at about 31 between the ALP and the Greens. 3 NXT would make 34 requiring negotiations with 2 of:

-Lambie
-Hinch
-Hanson
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