Australian 2016 Election Poll - Page 6 - U2 Feedback

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View Poll Results: Choose your preferred candidate.
21st Century Australia 1 10.00%
Animal Justice Party 0 0%
Australia First 1 10.00%
Australian Antipaeodphile Party 0 0%
Australian Christians 0 0%
Country Party 0 0%
Cyclists Party 0 0%
Defence Veterans Party 0 0%
ALP 2 20.00%
Greens 2 20.00%
Liberal Party 0 0%
Motoring Enthusiasts Party 1 10.00%
Sex Party 0 0%
Bullet Train for Australia 1 10.00%
Family First 0 0%
Katter's Australia Party 0 0%
Liberal Democrats 0 0%
#Sustainable Australia 0 0%
Mature Australia Party 1 10.00%
Nick Xenophon Team 0 0%
Rise Up Australia 0 0%
Secular Party 0 0%
Seniors Party of Australia 1 10.00%
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party 0 0%
Smokers Rights Party 0 0%
Socialist Alliance Party 0 0%
Socialist Equality Party 0 0%
Voluntary Euthanasia Party 0 0%
VOTEFLUX.ORG | Upgrade Democracy! 0 0%
Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop the Greens) 0 0%
Voters: 10. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-02-2016, 11:41 PM   #76
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If we do find ourselves in hung parliament negotiations, I wonder if another consideration for the crossbench will be the internal stability of the parties. Shorten will have the full support of the ALP. There really isn't any question that he would actually be brought down. Turnbull, on the other hand, is looking seriously shaky, especially as many of the losing Lib candidates last night were his supporters. And there's also the fact that the Libs are notoriously poor negotiators with the crossbench.

I could even see a situation where the crossbench chooses to support Turnbull, the Libs then roll him somewhere down the track, and the crossbench withdraw support and install the ALP. It's very unlikely but it's not completely unrealistic, and if so it would be the first time our government has changed on the floor of parliament since 1941. And can you imagine the shrieking and gnashing of teeth in the Murdoch press if it did!
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Old 07-02-2016, 11:46 PM   #77
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Aside from Vic swings (and nothing tangible unless Batman falls) I'm not sure the Greens had such a good night?
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Old 07-02-2016, 11:53 PM   #78
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Aside from Vic swings (and nothing tangible unless Batman falls) I'm not sure the Greens had such a good night?
No, I'd say it was a superb night. Polled very well in the Senate - 2010 was considered their high water mark and they were expected to lose seats this time around, that their vote would be closer to 2013 levels rather than 2010 and cost them some seats. They have lost their second SA senator but may have made it up elsewhere. So for the Senate they have bounced back from 2013 to essentially hold firm with their best-ever result.

And in the House the swings in Wills, Batman, Higgins, and Melbourne Ports are massive. They set up Wills and Batman to go Green in 2019, and taking Higgins to preferences for the first time in seven decades is a real achievement, something the ALP could not do. I don't think anybody seriously expected Wills to be this close, or for it to be undecided until as late in the evening as it was. Also they had very good results in rural NSW.

It's a shame there isn't that headline of a second Green, but the party has every reason to feel great this morning. This is probably their best ever nationwide performance, and in inner Melbourne they are close to polling higher than ALP + Liberal combined (which is what they need to win seats if the Libs preference the ALP).
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 07-03-2016, 12:26 AM   #79
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Turnbull just gave a presser. So much clutching at straws. "B-b-b-but the postals! We will get a majority! I buh-leev maaayte!"

Turnbull would be well advised to shut the fuck up right now.
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Old 07-03-2016, 12:26 AM   #80
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Old 07-03-2016, 12:30 AM   #81
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Actually I might need to wind back that last post a little; I think I misread some early Senate counts as stronger than they are. The fact that the Greens' primary vote in most states is good enough for one quota at an ordinary election but only 1.5 at a double dissolution does seem to be a bit of a spanner in the works. But my read is that they definitely have one seat in every state, second seats in Victoria and Tasmania, and should score one or two more elsewhere too once the preferences are distributed (Queensland maybe?) - but that's very hard to read. So they'll have 8-10 seats and their Senate primary vote is up on 2013.
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"Mediocrity is never so dangerous as when it is dressed up as sincerity." - Søren Kierkegaard

Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 07-03-2016, 12:32 AM   #82
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Pauline Hanson. I'm getting angrier and angrier.
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Old 07-03-2016, 12:33 AM   #83
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Quote:
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Actually I might need to wind back that last post a little; I think I misread some early Senate counts as stronger than they are. The fact that the Greens' primary vote in most states is good enough for one quota at an ordinary election but only 1.5 at a double dissolution does seem to be a bit of a spanner in the works. But my read is that they definitely have one seat in every state, second seats in Victoria and Tasmania, and should score one or two more elsewhere too once the preferences are distributed (Queensland maybe?) - but that's very hard to read. So they'll have 8-10 seats and their Senate primary vote is up on 2013.
What's annoying me is I can't find anywhere that will give a clear view of things.
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Old 07-03-2016, 12:52 AM   #84
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Hanson and Hinch. What a fucking awful Senate this will be.

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What's annoying me is I can't find anywhere that will give a clear view of things.
That's because there really is no clear view! We have no precedent on how to predict the preference flows and ballot exhaustions under the new system. Group voting tickets were undemocratic but because almost everybody voted above the line it meant it was easy to model the outcome without a detailed count. Not now. Where, for example, will One Nation preferences go? They've polled strongly nationwide, not enough for a quota in most states but enough that their preferences 2-6 will make a difference. In the lower house seats my impression - and I might be wrong - is that their preferences actually seemed to favour the ALP.

All we can say right now for the Senate is to identify those candidates with a quota already off first preferences, those who should get to a quota because they are that close to one that even a small flow of preferences will be sufficient, and then wonder about the rest. In some states that's 2-3 positions completely up in the air and we may not know until late July.
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"Mediocrity is never so dangerous as when it is dressed up as sincerity." - Søren Kierkegaard

Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 07-03-2016, 12:56 AM   #85
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Oh, and has anybody checked on poor John Madigan? He polled terribly. Looks like he's 30th out of 38 groups in Victoria. His old DLP outdid him by a solid margin. He's come behind PUP, Rise Up, Fred Nile's lackeys, the Health Australia anti-vaxxers, Sustainable Australia and their dumb fucking hashtag, and even the unendorsed Democrats running as Group B!
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 07-03-2016, 01:14 AM   #86
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You've got to be some kind of fucked to come behind Sustainable Australia.

I think we all have little option but to wait for counting and allocating to run its course. It's clear we have little idea beyond the broadest strokes (Hanson! Maybe Hung Parliament!) what will end up being the result.
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Old 07-03-2016, 02:20 AM   #87
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Good luck people!

Thanks, Axver for the PM rundown.

Course as for the rest of it (your system/terns)
much are like to me... That's OK. Sure I know
the general concept of forming a coalition government
since I listen to World News as well as my local
& national news .

So Turnbull is a conservative guy (said the BBC)?

Yeah, they just mentioned this Mz Pauline person.

Well, you know some of our (USA) people. So it'll be your Spring
when our Presidential + others election will be held.

You can pull up your lawn chairs and over our election.
Hopefully (her pos & negs) Hilary will win. A d we have our
House and Senate up, too.

Good luck, again folks!
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Old 07-03-2016, 04:09 AM   #88
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Quote:
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Oh, and has anybody checked on poor John Madigan? He polled terribly. Looks like he's 30th out of 38 groups in Victoria. His old DLP outdid him by a solid margin. He's come behind PUP, Rise Up, Fred Nile's lackeys, the Health Australia anti-vaxxers, Sustainable Australia and their dumb fucking hashtag, and even the unendorsed Democrats running as Group B!
He has absolutely no positive attributes and he's an idiot for even thinking of forming a party with his name in the title.
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Old 07-03-2016, 05:10 AM   #89
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He has absolutely no positive attributes and he's an idiot for even thinking of forming a party with his name in the title.
Yeah I'm not exactly going to miss him. Trying to come up with a cult of personality party requires a personality, something that Madigan lacks. People love to call Ricky Muir the "accidental Senator" but Madigan was no less of an accident. And Muir gave it a red hot go, found his feet, and ran a decent campaign; he's not back in, but he's sure polled much better than Madigan.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 07-03-2016, 06:15 AM   #90
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ABC's Australia Votes site (on mobile) is very easy on the eye, but dear me... I'm struggling with the discrepancies across all various sites. Now claiming that in Higgins the 2PP is 77% in favour of the Libs, even though Greens gained a swing of 10%? It's all over the shop.

And fuck Pauline Hanson and any of the fuckwits who trot out the line "we should have listened to her years ago" or "she's only being honest".. Ughhhh

Trying desperately to see a "positive" in One Nation's success (and it's a stretch), is that Hanson is such an erratic and ridiculous individual. She's a caricature. If you could look at it this way... It's better that the far-right backed her, as opposed to an ALA or RUA, who at least could be perceived to be organised, or as "credible" parties (by those who wouldn't know any better).


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