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View Poll Results: Choose your preferred candidate.
21st Century Australia 1 10.00%
Animal Justice Party 0 0%
Australia First 1 10.00%
Australian Antipaeodphile Party 0 0%
Australian Christians 0 0%
Country Party 0 0%
Cyclists Party 0 0%
Defence Veterans Party 0 0%
ALP 2 20.00%
Greens 2 20.00%
Liberal Party 0 0%
Motoring Enthusiasts Party 1 10.00%
Sex Party 0 0%
Bullet Train for Australia 1 10.00%
Family First 0 0%
Katter's Australia Party 0 0%
Liberal Democrats 0 0%
#Sustainable Australia 0 0%
Mature Australia Party 1 10.00%
Nick Xenophon Team 0 0%
Rise Up Australia 0 0%
Secular Party 0 0%
Seniors Party of Australia 1 10.00%
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party 0 0%
Smokers Rights Party 0 0%
Socialist Alliance Party 0 0%
Socialist Equality Party 0 0%
Voluntary Euthanasia Party 0 0%
VOTEFLUX.ORG | Upgrade Democracy! 0 0%
Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop the Greens) 0 0%
Voters: 10. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-02-2016, 08:12 PM   #61
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You can chalk One Nation's success up to the double dissolution, but even so, I figured they were totally passe. Which is to say I'd have expected some of their fellow-travellers among the new crop of ratbag parties to get up instead. Anyhow Pauline Hanson has that parliamentary sinecure she always wanted. Hopefully the numbers don't put her in a position of any great importance.
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Old 07-02-2016, 08:37 PM   #62
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Also, Turnbull and Bishop can fuck right off with their pearl-clutching vis a vis Medicare. Yes, it's dirty politics, it's mud wrestling politics, but it's not untrue, and they know it. Broadly, the things Labor have said about the Coalition's wishes for Medicare are on the mark. And they both know it.
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Old 07-02-2016, 10:51 PM   #63
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The different figures are intriguing. I suppose it comes down in part to what margins are considered "safe" or "in doubt". But those postals and out-of-electorate votes to be added to the count from Tuesday could really shift some of these. Historically those votes tend to favour the Libs but hard to be certain this time around.

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You can chalk One Nation's success up to the double dissolution, but even so, I figured they were totally passe. Which is to say I'd have expected some of their fellow-travellers among the new crop of ratbag parties to get up instead. Anyhow Pauline Hanson has that parliamentary sinecure she always wanted. Hopefully the numbers don't put her in a position of any great importance.
The scary part is that Pauline Hanson probably would have won even without a double dissolution. The strong polling of her party in lower house seats and beyond Queensland is alarming and suggests a real resurgence in her support. I guess it's in part because all those other ratbags don't have as good name recognition, so when people are in the polling booth One Nation's name leaps out far more quickly than Australian Liberty Alliance.

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Also, Turnbull and Bishop can fuck right off with their pearl-clutching vis a vis Medicare. Yes, it's dirty politics, it's mud wrestling politics, but it's not untrue, and they know it. Broadly, the things Labor have said about the Coalition's wishes for Medicare are on the mark. And they both know it.
I really don't know why some people - even from the left - have been condemning this as a scare campaign. How can anybody actually trust the Libs when they say they won't gut Medicare? It's perfectly legitimate to call their honesty into question on that point when they broke so many promises after the last election and promote an ideology where gutting Medicare is a logical conclusion.
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Old 07-02-2016, 11:03 PM   #64
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I'm getting beyond infuriated by the massive discrepencies among the different sources. I mean, to go by the AEC site you'd nearly think the ALP have it in the bag, but presumably those totals are all in doubt at any moment as counting goes on (and yeah, postals still to come etc).
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Old 07-02-2016, 11:03 PM   #65
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Wills may not have gone Green, but you can't blame my polling place. Great result in Brunswick for Sam Ratnam: Brunswick South West - polling place - AEC Tally Room
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 07-02-2016, 11:06 PM   #66
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The scary part is that Pauline Hanson probably would have won even without a double dissolution. The strong polling of her party in lower house seats and beyond Queensland is alarming and suggests a real resurgence in her support. I guess it's in part because all those other ratbags don't have as good name recognition, so when people are in the polling booth One Nation's name leaps out far more quickly than Australian Liberty Alliance.

Maybe it would have been better if Hanson had succeeded in her last political tilt, which was a run for the state seat of Lockyer at the last Queensland election. She'd be safely out of the way there.

Look, I refuse to be too scared. There's a far right in Australia, that's hardly news. Depending on the level and nature of public discontent generally, they sometimes manage to pick up a bigger pool of support. It's disappointing but it's hardly the March on Rome.
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Old 07-02-2016, 11:07 PM   #67
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I'm getting beyond infuriated by the massive discrepencies among the different sources. I mean, to go by the AEC site you'd nearly think the ALP have it in the bag, but presumably those totals are all in doubt at any moment as counting goes on (and yeah, postals still to come etc).
I'm enjoying various people on Twitter claiming "Liberal sources" telling them the party is now winding back some of its faint optimism that Turnbull spruiked last night, and now expects a hung parliament.

It's looking bloody likely to me. Current figures - almost no matter which you accept - make 76 or even 75 very unlikely for anybody.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 07-02-2016, 11:08 PM   #68
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Maybe it would have been better if Hanson had succeeded in her last political tilt, which was a run for the state seat of Lockyer at the last Queensland election. She'd be safely out of the way there.

Look, I refuse to be too scared. There's a far right in Australia, that's hardly news. Depending on the level and nature of public discontent generally, they sometimes manage to pick up a bigger pool of support. It's disappointing but it's hardly the March on Rome.
Agreed about Lockyer. What worries me about this result for Pauline is that she will probably have polled well enough to get a six-year Senate term rather than a three-year term. I wince at the thought of her in parliament for so long, especially the way she will be the Islamophobe-in-Chief.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 07-02-2016, 11:10 PM   #69
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Wills may not have gone Green, but you can't blame my polling place. Great result in Brunswick for Sam Ratnam: Brunswick South West - polling place - AEC Tally Room
The Greens managed about 8% at my polling place, which I guess isn't far off their average support nationally so yeah.
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Old 07-02-2016, 11:11 PM   #70
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I'm enjoying various people on Twitter claiming "Liberal sources" telling them the party is now winding back some of its faint optimism that Turnbull spruiked last night, and now expects a hung parliament.

It's looking bloody likely to me. Current figures - almost no matter which you accept - make 76 or even 75 very unlikely for anybody.
Yeah. My worry at this point is that in the hung parliament scenario, I can't see more than a minority of the current crop of minors/indies actually supporting Labor. Maybe two of them, tops, and in Wilkie's case, no formal deal.
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Old 07-02-2016, 11:13 PM   #71
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Agreed about Lockyer. What worries me about this result for Pauline is that she will probably have polled well enough to get a six-year Senate term rather than a three-year term. I wince at the thought of her in parliament for so long, especially the way she will be the Islamophobe-in-Chief.

She'll be the lightning rod for sure. Hang on, I'm a little confused by your first sentence... maybe I'm just clueless, but I thought the deal was any senator once elected got a six year term and that was that?
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Old 07-02-2016, 11:20 PM   #72
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Yeah. My worry at this point is that in the hung parliament scenario, I can't see more than a minority of the current crop of minors/indies actually supporting Labor. Maybe two of them, tops, and in Wilkie's case, no formal deal.
If the ALP picks up 72, it could be very interesting. Bandt and Wilkie will support, formally or informally. Katter won't. McGowan and NXT are the question marks. Get just one of them to grant supply and they're on 75... but then there's the matter of a speaker!

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She'll be the lightning rod for sure. Hang on, I'm a little confused by your first sentence... maybe I'm just clueless, but I thought the deal was any senator once elected got a six year term and that was that?
Remember, unless there's another double dissolution, in three years there has to be a half-Senate election. So they have to determine which half of the Senate elected this year gets a full six-year term and which half only gets three-year terms. I would expect that the first six elected from each state will get the six-year terms, but I think this has been settled in other ways before.
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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Old 07-02-2016, 11:25 PM   #73
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Oh I see, that makes sense. This double dissolution business does my head in. I assume under the normal regime, the half of the senate that faces reelection is comprised of people coming to the end of their six year terms?
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Old 07-02-2016, 11:27 PM   #74
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If the ALP picks up 72, it could be very interesting. Bandt and Wilkie will support, formally or informally. Katter won't. McGowan and NXT are the question marks. Get just one of them to grant supply and they're on 75... but then there's the matter of a speaker!

I'm sort of counting NXT as likely Coalition vote if it came to it, rightly or wrongly. They like to talk a fuzzy post-ideological talk and that's what worries me. Throw a few scraps South Australia's way and who knows.
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Old 07-02-2016, 11:35 PM   #75
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Oh I see, that makes sense. This double dissolution business does my head in. I assume under the normal regime, the half of the senate that faces reelection is comprised of people coming to the end of their six year terms?
Yeah that's right.

Oh god, just looked at the Queensland Senate count and Pauline actually polled a higher first preference vote than the Greens.

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I'm sort of counting NXT as likely Coalition vote if it came to it, rightly or wrongly. They like to talk a fuzzy post-ideological talk and that's what worries me. Throw a few scraps South Australia's way and who knows.
I'm not so sure, because it's the Coalition that has trashed SA's heavy industry and they are far less amenable to Xenophon's no pokies pet legislation. I would put the ALP slightly in front for chances of coaxing support, but really hard to say.

Turnbull just gave a presser. So much clutching at straws. "B-b-b-but the postals! We will get a majority! I buh-leev maaayte!"
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Ian McCulloch the U2 fan:
"Who buys U2 records anyway? It's just music for plumbers and bricklayers. Bono, what a slob. You'd think with all that climbing about he does, he'd look real fit and that. But he's real fat, y'know. Reminds me of a soddin' mountain goat."
"And as for Bono, he needs a colostomy bag for his mouth."

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