Australian 2016 Election Poll

[dan_smee]

In any case, either you're right or you're wrong, mate. 'There's no other way' is awfully dogmatic talk, so if you're right, I guess I'd better pencil in an election for later this month.

Fair point - we are in unchartered waters - will be very interesting.

 

[Axver]

My mistake with Lazarus, but by my count on the ABC site we are looking at about 31 between the ALP and the Greens. 3 NXT would make 34 requiring negotiations with 2 of:



-Lambie

-Hinch

-Hanson

How are you reaching this conclusion? ALP + Green will likely be 35-36, so add NXT's 3 and you've got 38-39. Or if the Libs hold government then all they need are the Greens.

But you are all getting ahead of yourselves. A new election, in the first instance, is for the House only. The House is the more governable of the two right now, as noted. To have any election for the Senate before a routine half-Senate election in 2019 will require another double dissolution. Is that worth the risk?

Anyway I am starting to think that the ALP could form government. The Libs cannot offer stability, for the knives are already out for Turnbull, and an ALP/Green/NXT Senate is more workable than a Lib + whoever they don't piss off today Senate.

 

[Axver]

Fair point - we are in unchartered waters - will be very interesting.

Uncharted.

(Sorry.)

 

[Kieran McConville]

Aside from the vote counting, there's a game of psychological warfare being waged on the pages (so to speak) of the papers, and Shorten's surprisingly cool and collected. I would say that Turnbull is looking frankly terminal. That doesn't mean the likes of Bob Katter or maybe Cathy McGowan are going to grant supply to Labor, but it does have implications for the rest maybe.

If neither party has a majority but Labor is at a draw with the Coalition, or even just barely ahead on seats, then just wait and see.

 

[dan_smee]

I was just adding the state by state counts on ABC - admittedly it doesn't add up, and I am finding it difficult to get a source that gives decent info on what final numbers look like.

I am shocked to say that I loved something Derryn Hinch said about Pauline Hanson.

She is very pleasant and what comes out of her mouth is not that pleasant. She is talking about having CCTV cameras in mosques, and people go, 'Well, why don't you put it in churches to keep an eye on the paedophile priests.' Doesn't make sense.

 

[dan_smee]

I find it curious that ABC have 11.1 million total votes counted, yet the AEC only has 9.9. The AEC have been updating totals constantly.

Admittedly the ABC figures are totals for each party, whereas AEC is 2PP -would this indicate they haven't worked out preferences for 10% of the votes counted? Surely not as they factor in preferences during the count.


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

 

[Kieran McConville]

I struggle to see how the ABC can know anything the AEC doesn't, despite what idiosyncratic format they choose to report it.

 

[Axver]

I find it curious that ABC have 11.1 million total votes counted, yet the AEC only has 9.9. The AEC have been updating totals constantly.

Admittedly the ABC figures are totals for each party, whereas AEC is 2PP -would this indicate they haven't worked out preferences for 10% of the votes counted? Surely not as they factor in preferences during the count.


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

The first preference count is done first, then a TCP/TPP count. So ABC figures may be from the former?

 

[dan_smee]

The first preference count is done first, then a TCP/TPP count. So ABC figures may be from the former?

It is done first, but not in its entirety before then going to preferences. Otherwise we would have no preference info yet. With the wait for postals yesterday, I would have thought preference counting would be just about up to date.


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

 

[cobl04]

Counting day. Maybe Turnbull will make another hissy fit speech today.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

Pauline Hanson: Sunrise admits paying senator for TV appearances

 

[cobl04]

We already knew that. Sickening.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

I'm (partly) glad it gives me more shit to heap on Kochie, all the time.

 

[Kieran McConville]

So there's a (slim) chance Oakeshott might come back in Cowper, apparently. Another kinda-maybe for Labor (I know what you're going to say, but if lending Labor his support last time was unforgivable, voters had every chance to put the guy last this time

 

[Kieran McConville]

Also, finally some light is shed on the AEC results page. It is not a prediction of projected wins, it is simply a record of who is leading currently in the counts for all the seats.

 

[cobl04]

NASA just put a hunk of metal into the orbit of Jupiter with a one second margin of error and we won't know the election result for weeks.

 

[KhanadaRhodes]

i sadly have nothing to contribute (spoken like a true american amirite) but i at least had to share this: on the first, i got an email from the alp. i've never received anything from them from what i can remember. all i can figure is maybe at one point i signed some petition they did or something and got put on some random mailing list.

 

[cobl04]

Save Medicare, Khan

 

[KhanadaRhodes]

i need my own health insurance first

Spoiler

but seriously i read the email and i was like dang...students here don't get stipends or anything. the only way you get a stipend is if you're on some special scholarship

 

[cobl04]

Without some serious soul searching, the Greens will never move beyond the 10% plateau

I'm butthurt, there's no doubting. But this - from a former Greens staffer - is really worth reading.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

I've been on his Twitter a fair bit but I can't really decide if I like him or not.

 

[cobl04]

I get that. He seems determined to prove that he is the most woke progressive non-progressive on the face of the planet, which annoys the shit out of me AND contradicts the articles he writes.

He likes Kanye tho so

 

[Axver]

Without some serious soul searching, the Greens will never move beyond the 10% plateau

I'm butthurt, there's no doubting. But this - from a former Greens staffer - is really worth reading.

I don't really agree. Well, I do somewhat with the broad point; there is a kind of accepted wisdom, which I heard from a handful of political historians today at our annual conference, that the Greens will forever be a party of 10% of the vote.

But Faruqi's setup is completely misleading. He positions 2013 as a great success that Milne somewhat mysteriously talked down. On any measure, 2013 is actually the disappointment and 2016 went some way to advancing the Greens' cause. You can't call 2013 a success because they got ten Senators, when six of them were from the high-water mark of 2010 and not up for re-election. The Greens really only won four Senators in 2013, while this year they had a quota in every state (and I think would have under a regular half-Senate election everywhere but Queensland) and the likelihood of 3 more in the states where the vote is stronger.

I also think he overlooks a really important point, one that I think the Greens are trying to address: the nature of the vote, and their constituency, is changing. In 2010 the Greens were the alternate/protest vote. The events of 2010-13 have now located them as more of an established player, losing some of the protest vote in the process. Also, in 2013 and 2016, they have had to compete for the protest/alternate vote with a brand new handful of prominent and well-funded rivals (or in One Nation's case, an annoyingly resurgent old rival once thought vanquished). I would suggest their result this year shows they are solidifying an actual base of support away from the protest vote - but how to extend that? They have tapped some areas of support that will never go to the ALP, as we've seen in Higgins and various regional areas uncomfortable with CSG. It's a start but not enough.

The NSW branch has something to answer for. Isn't that true of almost every party? What's with NSW branches and being shithouse? But they ran a bad campaign, they chose the wrong seat to target in the form of Grayndler, and chose the wrong candidate for that campaign. The Victorian campaign was better, but needed results - though, as much as Faruqi is right that there's nothing inevitable in politics, Ratnam and Bhathal have laid the kind of groundwork essential for a 2019 victory. It's easier to get a 5% swing than a 15% swing!

I do suspect the Greens may for the medium term have to rely on regional bases of power, especially Tasmania and Victoria. Aim to turn inner Melbourne into a fortress and build pockets of adherents in regional areas that may not be enough to swing seats (though a few in northern NSW could be a chance) but will be enough to push the Senate vote up a few percentage points. Queensland is probably never going to be a good state for the party, but WA at the moment has bottomed out in its hostility to the left and they need to be in a position to capitalise on the upswing. Having Ludlam there helps. If I were the Greens I'd be aiming for 4 lower House seats and 15% of the national vote by 2022.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

I get that. He seems determined to prove that he is the most woke progressive non-progressive on the face of the planet, which annoys the shit out of me AND contradicts the articles he writes.

He likes Kanye tho so

I think this is a good description of his politics. I can never really tell his political stances as they seem to range from anti-capitalist to centrist at a whim. He's a bit inconsistent overall.

Though I agreed with his perspective that Waleed Aly isn't really the leftist many (including myself at one stage) want(ed) him to be.

 

[intedomine]

I experienced the Greens campaign through the prism of Higgins, where there was a swing of close to 10% to Jason Ball - one of the party's successes this election.

For Higgins.. It appears at this stage as if the Greens pretty much just captured mostly disaffected Labor voters who were supporting the Greens, who may not be the traditional advocates of action on climate change and the environment, but more out of a desperation to find a genuine opposition to the Coalition. The general sentiment appears to be that Labor are spineless, whereas the Greens are far more rigorous and relatable in their reasons for opposition.

I wonder if Animal Justice Party and Sex Party have, generally speaking, cannibalised The Greens is many respects - particularly those that feel the Greens may have been a little too silent on Live Export and civil liberties and secularism?


Sent from a barge floating through the docks of Dublin

 

[liamcool]

Someone smarter than me - we're still waiting?

 

[Axver]

Sex Party has definitely cannibalised some of the identity politics-oriented people who support the Greens, especially those susceptible to slick marketing who don't give a shit about economics.

AJP is too small to matter. From a friend who's heavily involved with them, they are mainly 1 AJP/2 Green types with a handful of cranks. Party discipline internally sounds poor.

Someone smarter than me - we're still waiting?

Yep.

I'm guessing 73-72 or 74-71 to the Libs.

I was surprised this morning to see Grey comfortably given to the Libs, since last I checked late yesterday it still looked very good for NXT.

 

[Kieran McConville]

So after all the sturm und drang, I guess we are looking at a continuing Turnbull Government. Whatever that means.

On one level, this is to be expected. On another, it may be good for Labor in the medium/long run.

But on yet another again, it is extremely disappointing. The Coalition may yet regroup and come back from this precipice. The future is not set, and the world does not only turn one way. In superficially calmer times (except not really, it was the height of the Cold War), the Menzies government clung on by one seat in 1961. They regrouped and the Coalition stayed in power for another eleven years. In 1998, Kim Beazley was so close and yet so far. And we all know what the succeeding years held there.

Post-Turnbull, we could well be on the way to a mid-term hard right government with who knows what future 'emergencies' to bolster its stocks. Frankly, it's unconscionable to me that the Coalition were not pretty much obliterated after the Abbott experiment. Short memory, must have a...

Oh and thanks Andrew Wilkie, cheers mate. You could have just abstained.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

I hate to put it this way, but it's a state of 'who cares, really' isn't it? This election has been an exhausting slog.

 

[cobl04]

Antony Green cares.