Australian 2016 Election Poll

[Kieran McConville]

You can chalk One Nation's success up to the double dissolution, but even so, I figured they were totally passe. Which is to say I'd have expected some of their fellow-travellers among the new crop of ratbag parties to get up instead. Anyhow Pauline Hanson has that parliamentary sinecure she always wanted. Hopefully the numbers don't put her in a position of any great importance.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Also, Turnbull and Bishop can fuck right off with their pearl-clutching vis a vis Medicare. Yes, it's dirty politics, it's mud wrestling politics, but it's not untrue, and they know it. Broadly, the things Labor have said about the Coalition's wishes for Medicare are on the mark. And they both know it.

 

[Axver]

The different figures are intriguing. I suppose it comes down in part to what margins are considered "safe" or "in doubt". But those postals and out-of-electorate votes to be added to the count from Tuesday could really shift some of these. Historically those votes tend to favour the Libs but hard to be certain this time around.

You can chalk One Nation's success up to the double dissolution, but even so, I figured they were totally passe. Which is to say I'd have expected some of their fellow-travellers among the new crop of ratbag parties to get up instead. Anyhow Pauline Hanson has that parliamentary sinecure she always wanted. Hopefully the numbers don't put her in a position of any great importance.

The scary part is that Pauline Hanson probably would have won even without a double dissolution. The strong polling of her party in lower house seats and beyond Queensland is alarming and suggests a real resurgence in her support. I guess it's in part because all those other ratbags don't have as good name recognition, so when people are in the polling booth One Nation's name leaps out far more quickly than Australian Liberty Alliance.

Also, Turnbull and Bishop can fuck right off with their pearl-clutching vis a vis Medicare. Yes, it's dirty politics, it's mud wrestling politics, but it's not untrue, and they know it. Broadly, the things Labor have said about the Coalition's wishes for Medicare are on the mark. And they both know it.

I really don't know why some people - even from the left - have been condemning this as a scare campaign. How can anybody actually trust the Libs when they say they won't gut Medicare? It's perfectly legitimate to call their honesty into question on that point when they broke so many promises after the last election and promote an ideology where gutting Medicare is a logical conclusion.

 

[Kieran McConville]

I'm getting beyond infuriated by the massive discrepencies among the different sources. I mean, to go by the AEC site you'd nearly think the ALP have it in the bag, but presumably those totals are all in doubt at any moment as counting goes on (and yeah, postals still to come etc).

 

[Axver]

Wills may not have gone Green, but you can't blame my polling place. Great result in Brunswick for Sam Ratnam: Brunswick South West - polling place - AEC Tally Room

 

[Kieran McConville]

The scary part is that Pauline Hanson probably would have won even without a double dissolution. The strong polling of her party in lower house seats and beyond Queensland is alarming and suggests a real resurgence in her support. I guess it's in part because all those other ratbags don't have as good name recognition, so when people are in the polling booth One Nation's name leaps out far more quickly than Australian Liberty Alliance.

Maybe it would have been better if Hanson had succeeded in her last political tilt, which was a run for the state seat of Lockyer at the last Queensland election. She'd be safely out of the way there.

Look, I refuse to be too scared. There's a far right in Australia, that's hardly news. Depending on the level and nature of public discontent generally, they sometimes manage to pick up a bigger pool of support. It's disappointing but it's hardly the March on Rome.

 

[Axver]

I'm getting beyond infuriated by the massive discrepencies among the different sources. I mean, to go by the AEC site you'd nearly think the ALP have it in the bag, but presumably those totals are all in doubt at any moment as counting goes on (and yeah, postals still to come etc).

I'm enjoying various people on Twitter claiming "Liberal sources" telling them the party is now winding back some of its faint optimism that Turnbull spruiked last night, and now expects a hung parliament.

It's looking bloody likely to me. Current figures - almost no matter which you accept - make 76 or even 75 very unlikely for anybody.

 

[Axver]

Maybe it would have been better if Hanson had succeeded in her last political tilt, which was a run for the state seat of Lockyer at the last Queensland election. She'd be safely out of the way there.

Look, I refuse to be too scared. There's a far right in Australia, that's hardly news. Depending on the level and nature of public discontent generally, they sometimes manage to pick up a bigger pool of support. It's disappointing but it's hardly the March on Rome.

Agreed about Lockyer. What worries me about this result for Pauline is that she will probably have polled well enough to get a six-year Senate term rather than a three-year term. I wince at the thought of her in parliament for so long, especially the way she will be the Islamophobe-in-Chief.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Wills may not have gone Green, but you can't blame my polling place. Great result in Brunswick for Sam Ratnam: Brunswick South West - polling place - AEC Tally Room

The Greens managed about 8% at my polling place, which I guess isn't far off their average support nationally so yeah.

 

[Kieran McConville]

I'm enjoying various people on Twitter claiming "Liberal sources" telling them the party is now winding back some of its faint optimism that Turnbull spruiked last night, and now expects a hung parliament.

It's looking bloody likely to me. Current figures - almost no matter which you accept - make 76 or even 75 very unlikely for anybody.

Yeah. My worry at this point is that in the hung parliament scenario, I can't see more than a minority of the current crop of minors/indies actually supporting Labor. Maybe two of them, tops, and in Wilkie's case, no formal deal.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Agreed about Lockyer. What worries me about this result for Pauline is that she will probably have polled well enough to get a six-year Senate term rather than a three-year term. I wince at the thought of her in parliament for so long, especially the way she will be the Islamophobe-in-Chief.

She'll be the lightning rod for sure. Hang on, I'm a little confused by your first sentence... maybe I'm just clueless, but I thought the deal was any senator once elected got a six year term and that was that?

 

[Axver]

Yeah. My worry at this point is that in the hung parliament scenario, I can't see more than a minority of the current crop of minors/indies actually supporting Labor. Maybe two of them, tops, and in Wilkie's case, no formal deal.

If the ALP picks up 72, it could be very interesting. Bandt and Wilkie will support, formally or informally. Katter won't. McGowan and NXT are the question marks. Get just one of them to grant supply and they're on 75... but then there's the matter of a speaker!

She'll be the lightning rod for sure. Hang on, I'm a little confused by your first sentence... maybe I'm just clueless, but I thought the deal was any senator once elected got a six year term and that was that?

Remember, unless there's another double dissolution, in three years there has to be a half-Senate election. So they have to determine which half of the Senate elected this year gets a full six-year term and which half only gets three-year terms. I would expect that the first six elected from each state will get the six-year terms, but I think this has been settled in other ways before.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Oh I see, that makes sense. This double dissolution business does my head in. I assume under the normal regime, the half of the senate that faces reelection is comprised of people coming to the end of their six year terms?

 

[Kieran McConville]

If the ALP picks up 72, it could be very interesting. Bandt and Wilkie will support, formally or informally. Katter won't. McGowan and NXT are the question marks. Get just one of them to grant supply and they're on 75... but then there's the matter of a speaker!

I'm sort of counting NXT as likely Coalition vote if it came to it, rightly or wrongly. They like to talk a fuzzy post-ideological talk and that's what worries me. Throw a few scraps South Australia's way and who knows.

 

[Axver]

Oh I see, that makes sense. This double dissolution business does my head in. I assume under the normal regime, the half of the senate that faces reelection is comprised of people coming to the end of their six year terms?

Yeah that's right.

Oh god, just looked at the Queensland Senate count and Pauline actually polled a higher first preference vote than the Greens.

I'm sort of counting NXT as likely Coalition vote if it came to it, rightly or wrongly. They like to talk a fuzzy post-ideological talk and that's what worries me. Throw a few scraps South Australia's way and who knows.

I'm not so sure, because it's the Coalition that has trashed SA's heavy industry and they are far less amenable to Xenophon's no pokies pet legislation. I would put the ALP slightly in front for chances of coaxing support, but really hard to say.

Turnbull just gave a presser. So much clutching at straws. "B-b-b-but the postals! We will get a majority! I buh-leev maaayte!"

 

[Axver]

If we do find ourselves in hung parliament negotiations, I wonder if another consideration for the crossbench will be the internal stability of the parties. Shorten will have the full support of the ALP. There really isn't any question that he would actually be brought down. Turnbull, on the other hand, is looking seriously shaky, especially as many of the losing Lib candidates last night were his supporters. And there's also the fact that the Libs are notoriously poor negotiators with the crossbench.

I could even see a situation where the crossbench chooses to support Turnbull, the Libs then roll him somewhere down the track, and the crossbench withdraw support and install the ALP. It's very unlikely but it's not completely unrealistic, and if so it would be the first time our government has changed on the floor of parliament since 1941. And can you imagine the shrieking and gnashing of teeth in the Murdoch press if it did!

 

[cobl04]

Aside from Vic swings (and nothing tangible unless Batman falls) I'm not sure the Greens had such a good night?

 

[Axver]

Aside from Vic swings (and nothing tangible unless Batman falls) I'm not sure the Greens had such a good night?

No, I'd say it was a superb night. Polled very well in the Senate - 2010 was considered their high water mark and they were expected to lose seats this time around, that their vote would be closer to 2013 levels rather than 2010 and cost them some seats. They have lost their second SA senator but may have made it up elsewhere. So for the Senate they have bounced back from 2013 to essentially hold firm with their best-ever result.

And in the House the swings in Wills, Batman, Higgins, and Melbourne Ports are massive. They set up Wills and Batman to go Green in 2019, and taking Higgins to preferences for the first time in seven decades is a real achievement, something the ALP could not do. I don't think anybody seriously expected Wills to be this close, or for it to be undecided until as late in the evening as it was. Also they had very good results in rural NSW.

It's a shame there isn't that headline of a second Green, but the party has every reason to feel great this morning. This is probably their best ever nationwide performance, and in inner Melbourne they are close to polling higher than ALP + Liberal combined (which is what they need to win seats if the Libs preference the ALP).

 

[Kieran McConville]

Turnbull just gave a presser. So much clutching at straws. "B-b-b-but the postals! We will get a majority! I buh-leev maaayte!"

Turnbull would be well advised to shut the fuck up right now.

 

[Kieran McConville]

The people support me in emails!

 

[Axver]

Actually I might need to wind back that last post a little; I think I misread some early Senate counts as stronger than they are. The fact that the Greens' primary vote in most states is good enough for one quota at an ordinary election but only 1.5 at a double dissolution does seem to be a bit of a spanner in the works. But my read is that they definitely have one seat in every state, second seats in Victoria and Tasmania, and should score one or two more elsewhere too once the preferences are distributed (Queensland maybe?) - but that's very hard to read. So they'll have 8-10 seats and their Senate primary vote is up on 2013.

 

[cobl04]

Pauline Hanson. I'm getting angrier and angrier.

 

[cobl04]

Actually I might need to wind back that last post a little; I think I misread some early Senate counts as stronger than they are. The fact that the Greens' primary vote in most states is good enough for one quota at an ordinary election but only 1.5 at a double dissolution does seem to be a bit of a spanner in the works. But my read is that they definitely have one seat in every state, second seats in Victoria and Tasmania, and should score one or two more elsewhere too once the preferences are distributed (Queensland maybe?) - but that's very hard to read. So they'll have 8-10 seats and their Senate primary vote is up on 2013.

What's annoying me is I can't find anywhere that will give a clear view of things.

 

[Axver]

Hanson and Hinch. What a fucking awful Senate this will be.

What's annoying me is I can't find anywhere that will give a clear view of things.

That's because there really is no clear view! We have no precedent on how to predict the preference flows and ballot exhaustions under the new system. Group voting tickets were undemocratic but because almost everybody voted above the line it meant it was easy to model the outcome without a detailed count. Not now. Where, for example, will One Nation preferences go? They've polled strongly nationwide, not enough for a quota in most states but enough that their preferences 2-6 will make a difference. In the lower house seats my impression - and I might be wrong - is that their preferences actually seemed to favour the ALP.

All we can say right now for the Senate is to identify those candidates with a quota already off first preferences, those who should get to a quota because they are that close to one that even a small flow of preferences will be sufficient, and then wonder about the rest. In some states that's 2-3 positions completely up in the air and we may not know until late July.

 

[Axver]

Oh, and has anybody checked on poor John Madigan? He polled terribly. Looks like he's 30th out of 38 groups in Victoria. His old DLP outdid him by a solid margin. He's come behind PUP, Rise Up, Fred Nile's lackeys, the Health Australia anti-vaxxers, Sustainable Australia and their dumb fucking hashtag, and even the unendorsed Democrats running as Group B!

 

[Kieran McConville]

You've got to be some kind of fucked to come behind Sustainable Australia.

I think we all have little option but to wait for counting and allocating to run its course. It's clear we have little idea beyond the broadest strokes (Hanson! Maybe Hung Parliament!) what will end up being the result.

 

[dazzledbylight]

Good luck people!

Thanks, Axver for the PM rundown.

Course as for the rest of it (your system/terns)
much are like to me... That's OK. Sure I know
the general concept of forming a coalition government
since I listen to World News as well as my local
& national news .

So Turnbull is a conservative guy (said the BBC)?

Yeah, they just mentioned this Mz Pauline person.

Well, you know some of our (USA) people. So it'll be your Spring
when our Presidential + others election will be held.

You can pull up your lawn chairs and over our election.
Hopefully (her pos & negs) Hilary will win. A d we have our
House and Senate up, too.

Good luck, again folks!

 

[Vlad n U 2]

Oh, and has anybody checked on poor John Madigan? He polled terribly. Looks like he's 30th out of 38 groups in Victoria. His old DLP outdid him by a solid margin. He's come behind PUP, Rise Up, Fred Nile's lackeys, the Health Australia anti-vaxxers, Sustainable Australia and their dumb fucking hashtag, and even the unendorsed Democrats running as Group B!

He has absolutely no positive attributes and he's an idiot for even thinking of forming a party with his name in the title.

 

[Axver]

He has absolutely no positive attributes and he's an idiot for even thinking of forming a party with his name in the title.

Yeah I'm not exactly going to miss him. Trying to come up with a cult of personality party requires a personality, something that Madigan lacks. People love to call Ricky Muir the "accidental Senator" but Madigan was no less of an accident. And Muir gave it a red hot go, found his feet, and ran a decent campaign; he's not back in, but he's sure polled much better than Madigan.

 

[intedomine]

ABC's Australia Votes site (on mobile) is very easy on the eye, but dear me... I'm struggling with the discrepancies across all various sites. Now claiming that in Higgins the 2PP is 77% in favour of the Libs, even though Greens gained a swing of 10%? It's all over the shop.

And fuck Pauline Hanson and any of the fuckwits who trot out the line "we should have listened to her years ago" or "she's only being honest".. Ughhhh

Trying desperately to see a "positive" in One Nation's success (and it's a stretch), is that Hanson is such an erratic and ridiculous individual. She's a caricature. If you could look at it this way... It's better that the far-right backed her, as opposed to an ALA or RUA, who at least could be perceived to be organised, or as "credible" parties (by those who wouldn't know any better).


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