Australian 2016 Election Poll

[Kieran McConville]

While I doubt it will happen, I'm really hoping for a Liberal/LNP loss, even a narrow one. It might bring on the existential crisis they've been putting off since 2007.

 

[Axver]

I really hope this is a bit like 1993, where everybody's all "the ALP gonna lose"... until they don't.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Of course the difference in 1993 was that there was a real scare campaign with the GST and the whole Fightback agenda. This time, Labor have seized with the alacrity of a drowning man on 'save Medicare' but, while certainly an accurate enough warning of actual Coalition intentions, may not quite have the traction. Also they lack the advantage of incumbency, which apparently turns shit into gold.

 

[Kieran McConville]

I'd also like to see a draw or a Labor win just to stick it to the betting markets. Have I mentioned that I consider it actually immoral to wager for money on political elections (especially when such markets, like polls, may sway the weak minded, at the margins, people who want to be sure of having supported a winner)? Well I do.

 

[Axver]

Also they lack the advantage of incumbency, which apparently turns shit into gold.

This always surprises me. I know very few people who give enough of a shit about their local member to know who they are, let alone would vote for a likeable local MP from their less-desired party. Yet the figures don't lie, that incumbents in individual seats enjoy a bounce at their first re-election.

I'd also like to see a draw or a Labor win just to stick it to the betting markets. Have I mentioned that I consider it actually immoral to wager for money on political elections (especially when such markets, like polls, may sway the weak minded, at the margins, people who want to be sure of having supported a winner)? Well I do.

Seriously, when did this even become a thing? I don't recall this from elections more than about three years ago.

 

[Kieran McConville]

^ I think it became a thing about, well, three years ago.

 

[Kieran McConville]

This always surprises me. I know very few people who give enough of a shit about their local member to know who they are, let alone would vote for a likeable local MP from their less-desired party. Yet the figures don't lie, that incumbents in individual seats enjoy a bounce at their first re-election.

Simple habit I would guess. Go with the name you recognise (which I guess rules out people you know who are actually unaware of the local member), or maybe go with whoever has enough money to put more stupid lawn signs around town.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Well this looks like being one of those nights. I can remember some bad old Howard wins where Kerry or Antony were calling it by 6.30.

 

[dan_smee]

Interesting night - looking like LNP minority.

Will be a turbulent 3 years...


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[dan_smee]

Also, can Labor just grow some fucking balls and either form a coalition with the Greens, or destroy them by becoming a real progressive party. Get out of the middle of the fucking road.


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[Kieran McConville]

On the information available, I don't know how anyone could call anything. A hung parliament is at least possible, sayeth the great sage Barrie Cassidy, well of course it is Barrie, it's always possible. At least.

 

[cobl04]

Baz called hung.

 

[dan_smee]

I think it is a pretty high possibility reading these numbers - 15 seats changing hands? I think before WA hit the boards 11 look certain, 2 more very possible. If 2 fall in WA it could get very sticky for the LNP


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[liamcool]

Scott Morrison is a prick.

 

[cobl04]

Not looking good for Alex Bhathal I thought we'd gain one seat.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

This is turning out a bit shit, isn't it?

 

[dan_smee]

More than a bit shit.

 

[Kieran McConville]

Not that it really matters much at all, but I'd love to know why the ABC's running tally of seat counts and The Guardian's differ so wildly. I'm not putting much stock in the latter.

 

[liamcool]

You want to be looking at the AEC, no?

 

[Kieran McConville]

I guess I do!

 

[dan_smee]

I trust the ABC model. Antony Green s d team have built theirs using projections based on preference flows, booth histories, all sorts of things, and call seats when they go over a statistical degree of probability. They aren't formally called, they are 'in all likelihood'.


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[Axver]

Wow what a night. Really didn't expect to get to after 11 and not have a result confirmed yet. Tories may get the slimmest of majorities but they have tanked. And the senate will be madness.

Can't believe how unbearable ScoMo is.

 

[Kieran McConville]

I see the Greens are still resolutely stuck on one MP (not that that means a whole heap just yet admittedly).

 

[cobl04]

I have never seen anyone celebrate a loss as happily as Bill is right now. What the fuck

 

[Axver]

I see the Greens are still resolutely stuck on one MP (not that that means a whole heap just yet admittedly).

Shame that Batman probably hasn't fallen. It's still in play but unlikely.

This is a great achievement for Shorten - given everybody was saying Turnbull would hold on, he has done an amazing job to cut a first term incumbent government to either a hung parliament or the barest majority.

 

[Kieran McConville]

We don't even know tonight who the loser is anyway. Although I'd say Turnbull is the loser either way, but that will be cold comfort if some form of Coalition government does manage to hang on, later rolling him.

 

[Vlad n U 2]

Bolt is sobbing at the moment somewhere.

 

[Axver]

I'm alarmed to see how well One Nation is doing well nationwide. Hopefully in most states they will just fall short of a quota but the Queensland result is horrifying. Not just one but TWO?!

 

[dan_smee]

Very different stories playing out in various places:

AEC has it ALP 72-66 with 7 undecided
ABC has it 67-67 with 11 undecided
Guardian has it LNP 69-65 with 11 undecided.

And for 'balance':
News.com.au has it LNP 70-65 with 10 undecided


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[Kieran McConville]

Very different stories playing out in various places:

AEC has it ALP 72-66 with 7 undecided
ABC has it 67-67 with 11 undecided
Guardian has it LNP 69-65 with 11 undecided.

And for 'balance':
News.com.au has it LNP 70-65 with 10 undecided


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That wild discrepency is exactly what I was alluding to last night!

Now, at this stage, notwithstanding Antony Green's fancy-pants computer models, I'd be inclined to go with what the AEC is saying. They would know what the count is, surely. They may not know how it will turn out but they are the ones actually counting. News.com.au and The Guardian's totals, christ knows whose ass they pulled them out of. I'm convinced they must make shit up.