--> All discussion of candidates' Iraq policies here

The friendliest place on the web for anyone that follows U2.
If you have answers, please help by responding to the unanswered posts.
wow! more of Bush following Obama on foreign policy:

Bush Said to Give Orders Allowing Raids in Pakistan
By ERIC SCHMITT and MARK MAZZETTI

WASHINGTON — President Bush secretly approved orders in July that for the first time allow American Special Operations forces to carry out ground assaults inside Pakistan without the prior approval of the Pakistani government, according to senior American officials.

The classified orders signal a watershed for the Bush administration after nearly seven years of trying to work with Pakistan to combat the Taliban and Al Qaeda, and after months of high-level stalemate about how to challenge the militants’ increasingly secure base in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

American officials say that they will notify Pakistan when they conduct limited ground attacks like the Special Operations raid last Wednesday in a Pakistani village near the Afghanistan border, but that they will not ask for its permission.

“The situation in the tribal areas is not tolerable,” said a senior American official who, like others interviewed for this article, spoke on condition of anonymity because of the delicate nature of the missions. “We have to be more assertive. Orders have been issued.”

The new orders reflect concern about safe havens for Al Qaeda and the Taliban inside Pakistan, as well as an American view that Pakistan lacks the will and ability to combat militants. They also illustrate lingering distrust of the Pakistani military and intelligence agencies and a belief that some American operations had been compromised once Pakistanis were advised of the details.

The Central Intelligence Agency has for several years fired missiles at militants inside Pakistan from remotely piloted Predator aircraft. But the new orders for the military’s Special Operations forces relax firm restrictions on conducting raids on the soil of an important ally without its permission.

Pakistan’s top army officer said Wednesday that his forces would not tolerate American incursions like the one that took place last week and that the army would defend the country’s sovereignty “at all costs.”

It is unclear precisely what legal authorities the United States has invoked to conduct even limited ground raids in a friendly country. A second senior American official said that the Pakistani government had privately assented to the general concept of limited ground assaults by Special Operations forces against significant militant targets, but that it did not approve each mission.

The official did not say which members of the government gave their approval.

Any new ground operations in Pakistan raise the prospect of American forces being killed or captured in the restive tribal areas — and a propaganda coup for Al Qaeda. Last week’s raid also presents a major test for Pakistan’s new president, Asif Ali Zardari, who supports more aggressive action by his army against the militants but cannot risk being viewed as an American lap dog, as was his predecessor, Pervez Musharraf.

The new orders were issued after months of debate inside the Bush administration about whether to authorize a ground campaign inside Pakistan. The debate, first reported by The New York Times in late June, at times pitted some officials at the State Department against parts of the Pentagon that advocated aggressive action against Qaeda and Taliban targets inside the tribal areas.

Details about last week’s commando operation have emerged that indicate the mission was more intrusive than had previously been known.

According to two American officials briefed on the raid, it involved more than two dozen members of the Navy Seals who spent several hours on the ground and killed about two dozen suspected Qaeda fighters in what now appeared to have been a planned attack against militants who had been conducting attacks against an American forward operating base across the border in Afghanistan.

Supported by an AC-130 gunship, the Special Operations forces were whisked away by helicopters after completing the mission.

Although the senior American official who provided the most detailed description of the new presidential order would discuss it only on condition of anonymity, his account was corroborated by three other senior American officials from several government agencies, all of whom made clear that they supported the more aggressive approach.

Pakistan’s government has asserted that last week’s raid achieved little except killing civilians and stoking anti-Americanism in the tribal areas.

“Unilateral action by the American forces does not help the war against terror because it only enrages public opinion,” said Husain Haqqani, Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington, during a speech on Friday. “In this particular incident, nothing was gained by the action of the troops.”

As an alternative to American ground operations, some Pakistani officials have made clear that they prefer the C.I.A.’s Predator aircraft, operating from the skies, as a method of killing Qaeda operatives. The C.I.A. for the most part has coordinated with Pakistan’s government before and after it has launched missiles from the drone. On Monday, a Predator strike in North Waziristan killed several Arab Qaeda operatives.

A new American command structure was put in place this year to better coordinate missions by the C.I.A. and members of the Pentagon’s Joint Special Operations Command, made up of the Army’s Delta Force and the Navy Seals.

The move was intended to address frustration on the ground about different agencies operating under different marching orders. Under the arrangement, a senior C.I.A. official based at Bagram air base in Afghanistan was put in charge of coordinating C.I.A. and military activities in the border region.

Spokesmen for the White House, the Defense Department and the C.I.A. declined to comment on Wednesday about the new orders. Some senior Congressional officials have received briefings on the new authorities. A spokeswoman for Senator Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat who leads the Armed Services Committee, declined to comment.

American commanders in Afghanistan have complained bitterly that militants use sanctuaries in Pakistan to attack American troops in Afghanistan.

“I’m not convinced we’re winning it in Afghanistan,” Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday. “I am convinced we can.”

Toward that goal, Admiral Mullen said he had ordered a comprehensive military strategy to address the border region between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The commando raid last week and an increasing number of recent missile strikes are part of a more aggressive overall American campaign in the border region aimed at intensifying attacks on Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the waning months of the Bush administration, with less than two months to go before November elections.

State Department officials, as well as some within the National Security Council, have expressed concern about any Special Operations missions that could be carried out without the approval of the American ambassador in Islamabad.

The months-long delay in approving ground missions created intense frustration inside the military’s Special Operations community, which believed that the Bush administration was holding back as the Qaeda safe haven inside Pakistan became more secure for militants.

The stepped-up campaign inside Pakistan comes at a time when American-Pakistani relations have been fraying, and when anger is increasing within American intelligence agencies about ties between Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, known as the ISI, and militants in the tribal areas.

Analysts at the C.I.A. and other American spy and security agencies believe not only that the bombing of India’s embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, in July by militants was aided by ISI operatives, but also that the highest levels of Pakistan’s security apparatus — including the army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani — had knowledge of the plot.

“It’s very difficult to imagine he was not aware,” a senior American official said of General Kayani.

American intelligence agencies have said that senior Pakistani national security officials favor the use of militant groups to preserve Pakistan’s influence in the region, as a hedge against India and Afghanistan.

In fact, some American intelligence analysts believe that ISI operatives did not mind when their role in the July bombing in Kabul became known. “They didn’t cover their tracks very well,” a senior Defense Department official said, “and I think the embassy bombing was the ISI drawing a line in the sand.”



i look forward to the McCain condemnations of this policy!
 
ethnic cleansing reduces violence:

UCLA study of satellite imagery casts doubt on surge's success in Baghdad

By tracking the amount of light emitted by Baghdad neighborhoods at night, a team of UCLA geographers has uncovered fresh evidence that last year's U.S. troop surge in Iraq may not have been as effective at improving security as some U.S. officials have maintained.

Night light in neighborhoods populated primarily by embattled Sunni residents declined dramatically just before the February 2007 surge and never returned, suggesting that ethnic cleansing by rival Shiites may have been largely responsible for the decrease in violence for which the U.S. military has claimed credit, the team reports in a new study based on publicly available satellite imagery.

"Essentially, our interpretation is that violence has declined in Baghdad because of intercommunal violence that reached a climax as the surge was beginning," said lead author John Agnew, a UCLA professor of geography and authority on ethnic conflict. "By the launch of the surge, many of the targets of conflict had either been killed or fled the country, and they turned off the lights when they left."

The team reports its findings in the October issue of Environment and Planning A, a leading peer-reviewed academic journal that specializes in urban and environmental planning issues.

The night-light signature in four other large Iraqi cities — Kirkuk, Mosul, Tikrit and Karbala — held steady or increased between the spring of 2006 and the winter of 2007, the UCLA team found. None of these cities were targets of the surge.

Baghdad's decreases were centered in the southwestern Sunni strongholds of East and West Rashid, where the light signature dropped 57 percent and 80 percent, respectively, during the same period.

By contrast, the night-light signature in the notoriously impoverished, Shiite-dominated Sadr City remained constant, as it did in the American-dominated Green Zone. Light actually increased in Shiite-dominated New Baghdad, the researchers found.

Until just before the surge, the night-light signature of Baghdad had been steadily increasing overall, they report in "Baghdad Nights: Evaluating the U.S. Military 'Surge' Using Night Light Signatures."

"If the surge had truly 'worked,' we would expect to see a steady increase in night-light output over time, as electrical infrastructure continued to be repaired and restored, with little discrimination across neighborhoods," said co-author Thomas Gillespie, an associate professor of geography at UCLA. "Instead, we found that the night-light signature diminished in only in certain neighborhoods, and the pattern appears to be associated with ethno-sectarian violence and neighborhood ethnic cleansing."

The effectiveness of the February 2007 deployment of 30,000 additional U.S. troops has been a subject of debate. In a report to Congress in September of that year, Gen. David Petraeus claimed "the military objectives of the surge are, in large measure, being met." However, a report the same month by an independent military commission headed by retired U.S. Gen. James Jones attributed the decrease in violence to areas being overrun by either Shiites or Sunnis. The issue now figures in the U.S. presidential race, with Republican presidential candidate John McCain defending the surge and Democratic hopeful Barack Obama having been critical of it.

Reasoning that an increase in power usage would represent an objective measure of stability in the city, Agnew and Gillespie led a team of UCLA undergraduate and graduate students in political science and geography that pored over publicly available night imagery captured by a weather satellite flown by the U.S. Air Force for the Department of Defense.

Orbiting 516 miles above the Earth, Satellite F16 of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) contains infrared sensors that calculate, among other things, the amount of light given off in 1.75-square-mile areas. Using geo-referenced coordinates, the team overlaid the infrared reading on a preexisting satellite map of daytime Iraq created by NASA's Landsat mapping program. The researchers then looked at the sectarian makeup in the 10 security districts for which the DMSP satellite took readings on four exceptionally clear nights between March 20, 2006, when the surge had not yet begun, and Dec. 16, 2007, when the surge had ended.

Lights dimmed in those neighborhoods that Gen. Jones pointed to as having experienced ethno-sectarian violence and neighborhood ethnic cleansing in his "Report of the Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq."

"The surge really seems to have been a case of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted," Agnew said.

Long-term obstacles to meeting Baghdad's power needs may have contributed to the decrease in night lights in the city's southwestern parts, the researchers acknowledge. But Baghdad's shaky power supply does not fully account for the effect, they contend, citing independent research showing that decaying and poorly maintained power plants and infrastructure were meeting less than 10 hours of Baghdad's power needs prior to the fall of Saddam Hussein.

"This was the part of the city that had the best sources of connection and the most affluent population, so they could actually generate power themselves, and they were in the habit of doing so well before the U.S. invasion," said Agnew, the president of the American Association of Geographers, the field's leading professional organization. "But we saw no evidence of a widespread continuation of this practice."

In addition to casting doubt on the efficacy of the surge in general, the study calls into question the success of a specific strategy of the surge, namely separating neighborhoods of rival sectarian groups by erecting concrete blast walls between them. The differences in light signatures had already started to appear by the time American troops began erecting the walls under Gen. Petraeus's direction, the researchers found.

"The U.S. military was sealing off neighborhoods that were no longer really active ribbons of violence, largely because the Shiites were victorious in killing large numbers of Sunnis or driving them out of the city all together," Agnew said. "The large portion of the refugees from Iraq who went during this period to Jordan and Syria are from these neighborhoods."

Previous research has used satellite imagery of night-light saturation to measure changes in the distribution of populations in a given area, but the UCLA project is believed to be the first to study population losses and migration due to sectarian violence. The outgrowth of an undergraduate course in the use of remote sensing technologies in the environment, the UCLA project was inspired by a desire to bring empirical evidence to a long-running debate.

"We had no axe to grind," said Agnew. "We were very open. If we had found that the situation was different, we would've reported it. Our main goal was to bring fairly objective and unobtrusive measures to a particularly contentious issue."

The study will be available Sept. 19 at Environment and Planning A abstract.
 
UCLA is a bunch of liberal elitists who don't want to admit the success of the great surge. :tsk:
 
ethnic cleansing reduces violence:


"Essentially, our interpretation is that violence has declined in Baghdad because of intercommunal violence that reached a climax as the surge was beginning," said lead author John Agnew, a UCLA professor of geography and authority on ethnic conflict. "By the launch of the surge, many of the targets of conflict had either been killed or fled the country, and they turned off the lights when they left."


Its not where the lights are turned on which determines the effectivness of the Surge, but the level of casualties across the country. Lets take a look at the monthly Iraqi casualties from the summer of 2006 through the end of 2007. Note that the United States did not actually have all 5 Surge Brigades on the ground in Iraq until the end of the summer of 2007 and US troop levels in Iraq peaked in October 2007.

July 06 1,280
Aug 06 2,966
Sep 06 3,539
Oct 06 1,539
Nov 06 1,864
Dec 06 1,752
Jan 07 1,802
Feb 07 3,014
Mar 07 2,977
Apr 07 1,821
May 07 1,980
June 07 1,345
July 07 1,690
Aug 07 1,674
Sep 07 848
Oct 07 679
Nov 07 560
Dec 07 548


Notice that a sustained drop in Iraqi deaths does NOT start until AFTER all the surge brigades had arrived on the ground in the summer of 2007. In addition, the article is WRONG in suggesting that the surge only involved Baghdad. It INITIALLY involved Baghdad but went into adjacent provinces after insurgents and terrorist were uprooted from Baghdad.

The sectarian violence in Baghdad started in early 2006 and as the casualty totals show, did NOT reduce Iraqi deaths at all. Neither did the Anbar Awakening which started in the summer/fall of 2006. A clear reduction in Iraqi deaths did not start until AFTER all surge brigades had arrived and the military was engaged in the surge operation of clearing Baghdad and then moving into other area's beyond Baghdad.

There is no corresponding and sustained drop in Iraqi casualties as light levels in certain Baghdad neighborhoods drop during the the fall of 2006 into the winter of 2007

Even large scale ethnic cleansing does not actually reduce violence as was seen in Bosnia. All it does is change where the fighting occurs. Much of the ethnic cleansing of different area's of Bosnia occured in 1992, most of the lost of life occured AFTER 1992.

If one had taken satellite pictures Sarajevo Bosnia during the Bosnian Civil War of 1992-1995, you would have seen a city that was dark, lights out. Based on the logic here, that would suggest that everyone in Sarajevo had left, that it had been ethnically cleansed. Nothing could have been further from the truth. Sarajevo Bosnia was involved in fighting nearly ever day of the war and remained the largest concentration of Bosnian Muslims through out the entire war. You don't turn your lights on when your in the middle of a battlefield!


Again, the only reliable figures and evidence for determining the level of success of the Surge are the casualty figures and the experiences of the people who were actually there on the ground and spent weeks clearing insurgents out of neighborhoods in Baghdad and Baghdad's suburbs and then on into other provinces.
 
Quote:
Bush Said to Give Orders Allowing Raids in Pakistan
By ERIC SCHMITT and MARK MAZZETTI

WASHINGTON — President Bush secretly approved orders in July that for the first time allow American Special Operations forces to carry out ground assaults inside Pakistan without the prior approval of the Pakistani government, according to senior American officials.

The classified orders signal a watershed for the Bush administration after nearly seven years of trying to work with Pakistan to combat the Taliban and Al Qaeda, and after months of high-level stalemate about how to challenge the militants’ increasingly secure base in Pakistan’s tribal areas.


Bush is a despicable war criminal who should be on trial.

His policies led directly to this latest outrage:-

At Least 60 Killed, 200 Injured in Islamabad Suicide Blast | News From Antiwar.com

The neo-con liars can't deny any more that their policies lead directly to hatred and largescale terrorism - the truth is plainer than day for anyone who has eyes to see.
 
Its not where the lights are turned on which determines the effectivness of the Surge, but the level of casualties across the country. Lets take a look at the monthly Iraqi casualties from the summer of 2006 through the end of 2007. Note that the United States did not actually have all 5 Surge Brigades on the ground in Iraq until the end of the summer of 2007 and US troop levels in Iraq peaked in October 2007.

July 06 1,280
Aug 06 2,966
Sep 06 3,539
Oct 06 1,539
Nov 06 1,864
Dec 06 1,752
Jan 07 1,802
Feb 07 3,014
Mar 07 2,977
Apr 07 1,821
May 07 1,980
June 07 1,345
July 07 1,690
Aug 07 1,674
Sep 07 848
Oct 07 679
Nov 07 560
Dec 07 548


Notice that a sustained drop in Iraqi deaths does NOT start until AFTER all the surge brigades had arrived on the ground in the summer of 2007. In addition, the article is WRONG in suggesting that the surge only involved Baghdad. It INITIALLY involved Baghdad but went into adjacent provinces after insurgents and terrorist were uprooted from Baghdad.

The sectarian violence in Baghdad started in early 2006 and as the casualty totals show, did NOT reduce Iraqi deaths at all. Neither did the Anbar Awakening which started in the summer/fall of 2006. A clear reduction in Iraqi deaths did not start until AFTER all surge brigades had arrived and the military was engaged in the surge operation of clearing Baghdad and then moving into other area's beyond Baghdad.

There is no corresponding and sustained drop in Iraqi casualties as light levels in certain Baghdad neighborhoods drop during the the fall of 2006 into the winter of 2007

Even large scale ethnic cleansing does not actually reduce violence as was seen in Bosnia. All it does is change where the fighting occurs. Much of the ethnic cleansing of different area's of Bosnia occured in 1992, most of the lost of life occured AFTER 1992.

If one had taken satellite pictures Sarajevo Bosnia during the Bosnian Civil War of 1992-1995, you would have seen a city that was dark, lights out. Based on the logic here, that would suggest that everyone in Sarajevo had left, that it had been ethnically cleansed. Nothing could have been further from the truth. Sarajevo Bosnia was involved in fighting nearly ever day of the war and remained the largest concentration of Bosnian Muslims through out the entire war. You don't turn your lights on when your in the middle of a battlefield!


Again, the only reliable figures and evidence for determining the level of success of the Surge are the casualty figures and the experiences of the people who were actually there on the ground and spent weeks clearing insurgents out of neighborhoods in Baghdad and Baghdad's suburbs and then on into other provinces.

Irvine, you HAD to know this was going to happen. . .
 
Irvine, you HAD to know this was going to happen. . .



what? a bunch of meaningless statistics spun to distract from what's actually the issue at hand? the creation of an alternative discussion so the poster in question can answer the questions he proposes to himself from himself?

yes.
 
Iraq parliament paves way for provincial elections


By QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA, Associated Press Writer
Wed Sep 24, 4:47 PM ET

BAGHDAD - Under intense U.S. pressure, Iraq's parliament approved a law Wednesday paving the way for the first provincial elections in four years following months of deadlock that American commanders warned could jeopardize the dramatic decline in violence.

The breakthrough came after lawmakers decided to postpone a decision on how to resolve a power-sharing dispute over the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. The Kirkuk controversy has stoked ethnic tensions in northern Iraq and stalled approval of the election bill.

U.S. officials hope the election, which must be held by Jan. 31 according to the new legislation, will give greater representation to minority Sunni Arabs. Many Sunnis and some Shiites boycotted the last provincial election, in January 2005, enabling Shiite religious parties and the Kurds to win a disproportionate share of the seats.

Empowering Sunnis through a new election may reduce support for the waning insurgency — though not among extremist groups.

In the latest bloodshed, suspected al-Qaida in Iraq militants ambushed and killed at least 22 Iraqi police commandos and U.S.-allied Sunni fighters in a village northeast of Baghdad on Wednesday. And in an audio message posted on militant Web sites, the purported leader of the al-Qaida front group the Islamic State in Iraq warned pro-government Sunnis that Shiites and U.S. forces will one day turn on them.

But the vote could also shift the balance of power among Shiite factions. Followers of anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr are hoping to make large gains in southern provinces, where many of the councils are dominated by rival Shiite parties in the ruling government coalition.

The 275-member Iraqi parliament had been heavily criticized for its inability to pass the law needed to establish the rules and guidelines for the vote. The election had been due as early as Oct. 1, then the date was pushed to the end of December.

U.S. officials have complained privately that Iraqi politicians have failed to take advantage of the sharp drop in violence — down 80 percent since last year, according to the U.S. military — to forge lasting power-sharing agreements.

The head of Iraq's electoral commission said the delay will make it difficult to meet the Jan. 31 deadline but that preparations were already under way.

"I think it will be very difficult to hold the elections this year, but we will try our best to ensure the elections occur before the end of January 2009," Faraj al-Haidari said.

President Bush congratulated the Iraqi parliament for passing the law and called the Sunni speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, to praise their leadership, his office said.

"Nothing is more central to a functioning democracy than free and fair elections," Bush said in a statement. "Today's action demonstrates the ability of Iraq's leaders to work together for the good of the Iraqi people and represents further progress on political reconciliation."

U.N. envoy Staffan di Mistura, who has shuttled relentlessly between the political blocs to pressure them to approve the law, said preparations for the vote would begin immediately.

"Today is an important day for Iraq and democracy as the parliament found a compromise over election law," he said. "This will help Iraq and Iraqis to express their opinions by voting for their candidates in the provinces."

The legislation had been bogged down in a complex dispute among Arabs, Turkomen and Kurds over Kirkuk, which Kurds seek to incorporate into their semiautonomous region.

The measure still needs to be approved by the three-member presidential panel led by President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd who vetoed an election bill passed in February after Kurdish lawmakers walked out of parliament.

But Kurdish legislators agreed to the latest proposal, making its adoption more likely. All sides accepted a U.N. compromise to put off the vote in Tamim province, which includes Kirkuk.

Instead, parliament will form a committee to review property disputes and power-sharing concerns and come up with separate legislation for elections there by March 31.

Kurdish legislator Khalid Shewani said the tipping point was an assurance that the committee would work according to the Iraqi constitution.

"Every side had fears but these fears have disappeared after the inclusion of legal guarantees," he said. "We thank God that we reached this agreement."

The new law also banned political parties from using religious authorities, mosques and government institutions as part of campaigning.

Another item specified that 25 percent of the council members must be women — the same quota constitutionally mandated for parliamentary elections, which were last held in December 2005 and drew more Sunni participation. But the thorny issue of how to ensure minorities such as Christians and Yazidis are fairly represented was to be addressed separately by the U.N. envoy.

Voters will choose councils in 14 provinces, which wield considerable power over local security forces and resources, including oil. Excluded from the legislation were the three provinces that make up the semiautonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq since they are governed by the Kurdish parliament, as well as Tamim province, which includes Kirkuk.

___

Iraq parliament paves way for provincial elections - Yahoo! News
 
Since this is the only war related thread currently discussed:

BBC NEWS | South Asia | Shots fired in US-Pakistan clash

Later, in an address to the UN General Assembly, he referred to the cross-border tension when he said that his country could not allow its territory to "be violated by our friends".

Looks like the new government assumes sovereignty and wants to demonstrate its strength and commitment. Sure, with the enemy in the own country...
 
Back
Top Bottom