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Old 10-01-2008, 09:27 PM   #121
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The bill just passed the Senate 74-25.
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Old 10-01-2008, 10:06 PM   #122
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does this mean MacDaddy poll numbers are gonna go up?
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Old 10-02-2008, 02:58 AM   #123
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Old 10-02-2008, 03:52 AM   #124
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Old 10-02-2008, 04:53 AM   #125
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Old 10-02-2008, 10:46 AM   #126
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I'm not sure if you want to know the answer to this. Average prices have dropped 15-20% since peak, but that doesn't tell half the story. Inventory is huge, proportionately as large as some of the most bubblicious US states. Some properties will struggle to sell at any price. Transactions are still happening, but at, by some estimates and in some areas, 90% reduced on peak in terms of numbers of transactions. But, really, assuming your da isn't planning on selling his house any time soon, I guess it doesn't really affect him. Mayo specifically, I don't know too much about the market there. I don't think prices ever got as crazy in Mayo as in Galway. There is carnage in Galway with several large developers there on the verge of bankruptcy.



Yes I'm hearing a lot of anecdotes about this. The construction boom, or as I prefer to call it, unsustainable property bubble, is a dead parrot. Not merely sleeping, but deceased.



There are certainly a lot of immigrants still in Ireland. Shopping in Tesco's earlier, I would estimate 60% of customers probably foreign. Granted, city centre Dublin may not be representative. I tend to think, if you are an immigrant from a 'Third World' country frankly, being on the dole in Dublin is probably better than in a slum in Jakarta. If, on the other hand, you're a young male Pole accustomed to construction work, you'll probably head back home, or, indeed, to places like Canada or Australia.
Ya my da isn't planning on selling it anytime soon, his brother rents it out to some family. When I was over 3 years ago for a year it seemed out of control. It did'nt resemble the Ireland I knew as a kid. The factory in town had 160 Polish working in it and down in the town it was'nt 'small town Ireland' anymore. Headin over next summer for a few months, hopefully things have picked up. Never fun being on holidays and everyone else is on pogey.

My old man doesn't know what to make of Ireland anymore. He can't even fathom retiring back over there. Which is a bit sad, but when you're gone a long time things change. My dad, bless him, hasn't changed a bit! haha
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Old 10-02-2008, 06:22 PM   #127
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Godamn it, I knew Ireland would be next, I even knew two banks were about to fail, I should have posted my suspicions on here last week and enhanced my reputation as an economic genius.


Irish guarantees were led by fears of imminent bank failure - Times Online

Quote:
Rumours swept the Dail, the Irish parliament, last night that the Government’s controversial decision on Tuesday to guarantee the debts and deposits of the country’s six largest banks was the result of the threat of imminent collapse of one of its leading financial institutions.

Opposition anger was mounting last night, during debate of the Finance Bill, that the Government was keeping the public in the dark over the real motives behind the extraordinary decision to commit the equivalent of three years of the Republic’s GDP to covering the banks. Outside the chamber the corridors buzzed with details of dramatic meetings in Government Buildings in Dublin on Monday night between representatives of the banks, regulators, powerful business figures and the Government.

Last night it was reported that Brian Lenihan, the Irish Finance Minister, was called twice yesterday by Alistair Darling on behalf of UK banks over fears that Dublin’s blanket guarantee for savers was causing an exodus of funds from UK rivals.

Mr Lenihan is said to have informed the Chancellor that the measures, which will likely be pushed through the Dail this evening, was the result of the threat of imminent collapse of one of its leading financial institutions, which would have led to the failure of a second.

Related Links
UK urged to give savers unlimited guarantees
Savings flow to Irish bank accounts
The background to what has been described as the biggest blank cheque in the history of the Irish state appears to have been the fear that one of Ireland’s biggest banks would declare itself bankrupt at the opening of business on Tuesday morning.

Very senior Irish business figures said that the bank’s insolvency, in the face of a €1.5 billion (£1.2 billion) debt to a German bank that it was unable to pay, would pull down several large companies and possibly a second bank. It was this and the fear that a domino effect would begin – fuelled by the fact that a number of banks are owed billions of euros by property developers – that forced the Government to take action.
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Old 10-02-2008, 06:51 PM   #128
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I read somewhere else that the size of the Irish guarantee is twice that of Ireland's GDP - not sure how safe I would feel.
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Old 10-02-2008, 06:53 PM   #129
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I read somewhere else that the size of the Irish guarantee is twice that of Ireland's GDP - not sure how safe I would feel.
Size of guarantee is the size of all deposits, for all the guarantee to be used would require their assets to be reduced to nothing which is unlikely.
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Old 10-02-2008, 07:11 PM   #130
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This probably explains the euro decline:

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Financial Crisis: So much for tirades against American greed
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard says it is ironic that European banks have turned out to be deeper in debt than their US counterparts.
...
France's Christine Lagarde called yesterday for an EU emergency fund. "What happens if a smaller EU country faces the threat of a bank going bankrupt? Perhaps the country doesn't have the means to save the institution. The question of a European safety net arises," she said.

The storyline is evolving much as eurosceptics predicted, yet the final chapter could end either way as the recriminations fly. Germany has already shot down the French idea. The nationalists are digging in their heels in Berlin and Madrid. We are fast approaching the moment when events decide whether Europe will bind together to save monetary union, or fracture into angry camps. Will the Teutons bail out Club Med? If not, check those serial numbers on your euro notes for the country of issue. It may start to matter.
Financial Crisis: So much for tirades against American greed - Telegraph


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Size of guarantee is the size of all deposits, for all the guarantee to be used would require their assets to be reduced to nothing which is unlikely.
By comparison, the US guarantee is more credible, as it is only a fraction of GDP. Even a single large bank failure would take a large toll in Ireland.
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Old 10-02-2008, 07:19 PM   #131
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By comparison, the US guarantee is more credible, as it is only a fraction of GDP. Even a single large bank failure would take a large toll in Ireland.
That is certainly true.
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Old 10-02-2008, 07:21 PM   #132
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Ambrose P-Evans is a good columnist, and I have posted his articles on here before, but he is a little bit obsessed with doing down the euro.

I think euro's depreciation is partially linked to the issues he talks about, but also the dollar may simply have been undervalued against the euro for quite a while, and is now correcting, plus, USD along with Swiss franc traditionally currencies of choice in time of economic difficulty.
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Old 10-02-2008, 07:21 PM   #133
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Size of guarantee is the size of all deposits, for all the guarantee to be used would require their assets to be reduced to nothing which is unlikely.

I'm thinking it might be an advantage that UK money is coming to Ireland. It could make the banks stronger in the short term, no?
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Old 10-02-2008, 07:22 PM   #134
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I'm thinking it might be an advantage that UK money is coming to Ireland. It could make the banks stronger in the short term, no?
In the short term, yes.

Jeez, the rest of Europe hate us though.

Luckily, plucky old Greece has bailed us out by implementing a similar guarantee for its banks.

It's all gettting rather interesting.
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Old 10-02-2008, 07:28 PM   #135
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I think euro's depreciation is partially linked to the issues he talks about, but also the dollar may simply have been undervalued against the euro for quite a while, and is now correcting, plus, USD along with Swiss franc traditionally currencies of choice in time of economic difficulty.
The stronger dollar is crushing the stock prices for companies that rely on export earnings (commodity stocks, Apple, etc), so a strengthening dollar would accelerate the stock selloff. I'm surprised the Fed hasn't cut rates again - I think they will soon.
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