2012 Presidential Debates

[deep]

i think we'll know early -- OH, VA, and FL are all on east coast time. if R loses any one of them, it's over.

Good chance for Romney to win the last two. Perhaps even legitimately.

I think Ohio is a less likely legitimate win. But a legitimate win is not the requirement.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

I was impressed with Obama's answers to the foreign policy questions. It inspired confidence. I just wish I could be as impressed with his handling of our economy. I believe we need things like health care but I also believe in being financially responsible. That's how I live my life, because I have to. I think the country should do the same. I know that he's faced opposition from Congress but that can't be an excuse for everything.

I've seen Romney 's act before and I ain't buying. When he said last night that America doesn't dictate to other countries, that was absolutely laughable. I bet much of the world was laughing too.

I wish Obama could be more Clinton like in terms of the economy. I know that it's a different time and he faces different obstacles.

I can't vote for Romney in good conscience, and especially as a woman I feel I have to vote. Because we didn't have that as a birthright when we should have. But I'm not all that thrilled about it, and I worry about the next four years either way.

 

[corianderstem]

I think I'm just going to start drinking now.

 

[Irvine511]

Election Night 2008 is one of the best memories of my life. People literally danced in the streets, strangers hugged each other, and I was in the crowd that went to the White House and sang the "way-aye-hey GOOD BYE."

It was much less about Obama and much more about the end of the hideousness of the Bush years.

 

[phanan]

Very true. It will come down to specific counties. I could see NH, Penn, and Virginia called rather early.

I wouldn't call NH early yet. The state is very familiar with Romney; he has a summer home here, and a lot of people seem to like him. Contrast that to the state leaning left in recent years, and it will be very close.

 

[LemonMelon]

Actually, it's a dead heat in NH right now. Obama just pulled ahead according to the RCP averages.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Obama has been spending lots of time in NH, so no way is that going to be called early for him. If he thought otherwise he wouldn't bother.

 

[phanan]

Playing around with the electoral map some more, it seems that it really does come down to Ohio.

The following are considered battleground states:

New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Michigan
Wisconsin
Iowa
Colorado
Nevada

I think it's safe to assume that NC will go to Romney, while PA goes to Obama. Then, while not as safe, let's assume recent trends are accurate and FL goes to Romney, and MI and WI go to Obama. That leaves NH, OH, VA, IA, CO, and NV.

Nevada has a big gun in Harry Reid, and they are becoming more like California, so it probably goes Obama.

Virginia has mostly been with the GOP, apart from 2008. Let's say it goes back to them this year.

That leaves NH, OH, IA, and CO.

In this scenario, Obama would only need Ohio out of those final four to win it, and I think it's unlikely he doesn't carry at least one of the others.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

I cringed when he did that. Didn't realize he's 75. I thought he did a very good job.



While prefacing a question for Mitt Romney about Pakistan during Monday's presidential debate on foreign policy, moderator Bob Schieffer had an unfortunate slip of the tongue, referring to Osama bin Laden as "Obama bin Laden."

"We know that Pakistan has arrested the doctor who helped us catch Obama-uh-bin Laden," Schieffer said, seeming to realize his mistake immediately.

The 75-year-old host of CBS' "Face the Nation" quickly recovered: "It still provides safe haven for terrorists, yet we continue to give Pakistan billions of dollars. Is it time for us to divorce Pakistan?"

Schieffer told Politico on Tuesday he was initially unaware of the slip-up: "I saw it in a story last night. I said to my wife, 'Did I say that?' And she said, 'Yeah, you did.'

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

also, i was heartened by Obama's last two debates. when he's on his A-game, he's as good as anybody, and it reminded me of when he schooled the GOP republicans back in January of 2010 (?) on health care. anyone who thinks he's nothing more than a cipher with a teleprompter is an idiot.

The Obama that did that in January 2010? I definitely want to see more of him. I REALLY liked it when he did that. Do you think, should he win a second term, we'll see more of that side of his personality come out, the way some people predict?

This will be the first election that I vote in, as well as the first election that I will be covering live in a newsroom. Should be a crazy night.

Cool . Yeah, that will surely be a hectic day, no doubt, but I bet it'll be fun, too. Hope all goes well for you.

 

[toscano]

The irony of mittens winning the popular vote and losing the election will be spectacularly off the charts

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

The irony of mittens winning the popular vote and losing the election will be spectacularly off the charts

And if that does happen, any Republicans who cry about Romney getting the election "stolen" from him would be just as douchey as the democrats who still bring up 2000.

 

[anitram]

There is pretty much zero chance of that happening. The states that have the population numbers are Democratic so while they are not as influential in the electoral college, they allow the D candidate to run up the popular vote numbers and that's why Mitt's odds of winning the popular vote are about zero.

 

[digitize]

There is pretty much zero chance of that happening. The states that have the population numbers are Democratic so while they are not as influential in the electoral college, they allow the D candidate to run up the popular vote numbers and that's why Mitt's odds of winning the popular vote are about zero.

I wouldn't be so sure. Popular vote polling seems a lot more close than EC polling right now.

 

[digitize]

For what it's worth, these are Nate Silver's probabilities right now. I tend to trust him more than anyone:

Nevada: 72.8% Obama
Colorado: 50.5% Romney (this one keeps flipping back and forth)
Iowa: 64.4% Obama
Wisconsin: 81% Obama
Ohio: 70.4% Obama
Virginia: 51% Obama (also keeps flipping back and forth)
Florida: 69.4% Romney (keeps going more and more to Romney's pile)
New Hampshire: 66.6% (hehe) Obama
North Carolina: 85.8% Obama (is this still considered a swing state?)

If I give EVs out based on these probabilities:

That's still a fairly comfortable lead for Obama if this is to believed. Going off of Nate Silver's recent trends alone, I would say that this map will stay pretty much the same to election day, with Colorado and Virginia going either way (and Obama winning regardless). But I am curious about his high Obama-win chances in Wisconsin and New Hampshire, places that are usually fairly reliable Dem pickups but have close polling right now. He's probably weighing some of the GOP-leaning polls less because of perceived inaccuracy (which would probably be fairly historically accurate), but it's hard to say.

Also, it's interesting how far to the right Gallup has been polling compared to all the other polls lately. Silver thinks that they are oversampling the South, but it's curious.

 

[toscano]

And if that does happen, any Republicans who cry about Romney getting the election "stolen" from him would be just as douchey as the democrats who still bring up 2000.

Was it only about the popular vote back then ? no. So no they will be MORE douchey. As if they aren't already.

 

[anitram]

I wouldn't be so sure. Popular vote polling seems a lot more close than EC polling right now.

Nate Silver's own model has that possibility at 6.5%. I agree with him, for a number of reasons.

 

[digitize]

Nate Silver's own model has that possibility at 6.5%. I agree with him, for a number of reasons.

I didn't say that it's likely, but I also think there's a somewhat realistic chance of it happening.

 

[phanan]

With the exception of Virginia, which I think will go to Romney, I would agree with those projections (I'm assuming you meant Romney for NC).

 

[digitize]

With the exception of Virginia, which I think will go to Romney, I would agree with those projections (I'm assuming you meant Romney for NC).

Yeah, the NC thing was a mistake.

 

[mikal]

I'm telling you. The difference in this election is on the ground. Obama's ground teams in the battleground states more than doubles Romney's. They're going to get people to vote who aren't being polled twice per week.

 

[Irvine511]

perhaps being optimistic, i think O will hold VA. the state gets ever more urban and diverse with each passing year, and the economy is actually comparatively gangbusters compared to the rest of the country. what happens in VA is that a lot of people who live and work in NoVA have moved there from somewhere else, or identify much more closely with DC and MD. they are the engine that has led VA to such prosperity, and they are culturally blue voters. the rest of VA is southern, Richmond was the capitol of the Confederacy. VA trends blue in a national election because of the northern populations, whereas in a down year, like 2010, when the politics are much more local, the northernites aren't as engaged and tend to stay home, whereas the true blue (or true red) Virginians head out and vote.

my guess is turnout in the north plus the predominantly black counties south of Norfolk will keep the state blue, and Tim Kaine will win with the small lead he already has.

btw, Kaine is impressive. to my ear, he easily outdebated George Allen.

 

[deep]

I'm telling you. The difference in this election is on the ground.

wrong, the difference is in the vote counting, who controls it, and what votes get counted,

and with the huge 2010 blow out, the GOP has a firm grip on the process

 

[mikal]

wrong, the difference is in the vote counting, who controls it, and what votes get counted,

and with the huge 2010 blow out, the GOP has a firm grip on the process

Umm....the ground force leads to votes. That's where I was going with that. Didn't think it was too difficult to decipher that in my post.

 

[deep]

you are missing my point, it does not matter if 1 in 20 votes from Democratic districts get lost or set aside because a signature does not match exactally

 

[Popmartijn]

wrong, the difference is in the vote counting, who controls it, and what votes get counted,

and with the huge 2010 blow out, the GOP has a firm grip on the process

Though Texas will not be a closely contested state, this is very telling in that respect:
Texas official threatens to arrest election monitors observing US polls | World news | guardian.co.uk


I have to say, with all the shenanigans going on in all these states, that the democratic voting process is a joke in the USA. So many parties and partisans trying to influence the outcome of the election by disenfranchising voters, preventing registrations, preventing persons to vote, etc. Why is it even necessary to register to vote? It should be easy for an (independent) organisation organizing the elections to send everyone who is legally allowed to vote a voting card a few weeks before the election. On election day that person can use the voting card to cast his/her ballot.
In the end, I think the election result will be fairly democratic, but that also depends on the lawsuits that will be started up after the elections. The process, however, is a joke.

 

[BVS]

There is actually a big fear here in Texas that it will become a swing state in the future.

 

[Irvine511]

There is actually a big fear here in Texas that it will become a swing state in the future.

If the GOP keeps shitting on Latinos it will be, no matter how many of the Romney forces to self-deport.

They are utterly gutting themselves as a party by pandering to the racial, sexual fears of older white Americans.

 

[mikal]

There is actually a big fear here in Texas that it will become a swing state in the future.

Same with Arizona.

 

[digitize]

There is actually a big fear here in Texas that it will become a swing state in the future.

God, I wish that would be the case, more for the sake of state politics than anything. Unfortunately, the GOP is so hopelessly entrenched in state politics that it will probably artificially drag out how long it takes for Texas to become a swing state. The GOP here is pretty nutty.