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Old 10-23-2012, 12:43 PM   #436
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Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase
e) fair or not, Obama has the economy. Romney doesn't.

George HW Bush probably deserved better than what he got... but he had the economy. Clinton didn't. In the end, that's what decides elections.
It sure didn't help Bush the Elder that there was a historic third party vote that year.
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Old 10-23-2012, 01:44 PM   #437
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I think it will be tight but I see no plausible argument for why Mitt is more likely to win. I really don't.
It's because people are focusing too heavily on the popular vote polls. The fact is that it's pretty easy for Obama to pull this off even if he loses the popular vote. The Democratic Party has done a brilliant job of shifting the Electoral map in their favor. In this case, if Obama wins Ohio (which he's never trailed in the polls), his chances of winning are sky high and it's that grim for Romney.
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Old 10-23-2012, 01:52 PM   #438
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I don't see how anyone actually paying attention to the actual substance of what Romney says (particularly in comparison to what he said last week, or last month, or last year) could say that he's shown himself to be "presidential." In my mind, his shameless and cynical disregard for the truth, unwillingness to stand up for anything he's said or done when it's unpopular, and his willingness to say pretty much anything, truth be damned, to win political points has shown him to be utterly unfit for the office.

If you don't have the moral fiber to stand up and defend your platform in an honest way before you're even in office - if you defect away from your previously held positions the instant it becomes politically expedient to do so, then what the hell are you going to do when you're faced with a real crisis?


a day later, polls show that Obama won this debate by as large a margin as Romney did the first debate. it's abundantly clear that Obama won 2 of the 3 debates.

however, the fact remains that Romney has "qualified" himself as a viable alternative to Obama over the course of these three debates. he has done this by embracing positions often 180 degrees from his stated positions in the primary, as well as embracing the most popular parts of the president's agenda (parts of Obamacare, *all* of his foreign policy).

so what Romney has done is very shrewd, and exactly what he needed to do in order to stay in the race, and by focusing his entire candidacy around complaints about the economy (and not presenting anything in the way of solutions), he has provided a home for voters who hate Obama or who feel as if he hasn't done a good enough job.

it's up to the voters. it's a democracy. Romney has made his pitch, are you buying?
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Old 10-23-2012, 02:02 PM   #439
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It's because people are focusing too heavily on the popular vote polls. The fact is that it's pretty easy for Obama to pull this off even if he loses the popular vote. The Democratic Party has done a brilliant job of shifting the Electoral map in their favor. In this case, if Obama wins Ohio (which he's never trailed in the polls), his chances of winning are sky high and it's that grim for Romney.
He needs at least one other battleground state to do it. Ohio alone won't be enough.
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Old 10-23-2012, 02:13 PM   #440
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He needs at least one other battleground state to do it. Ohio alone won't be enough.
Oh I know, but I just don't see Romney sweeping every other state. Obama is still leading in Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire and barely ahead in Wisconsin.

It really would take the perfect storm for Romney to win.
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Old 10-23-2012, 02:35 PM   #441
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Last I checked, which was admittedly a few days ago, Obama had 5+ point leads in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia, which should about do it.
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Old 10-23-2012, 02:40 PM   #442
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Obama has a 2.9 point lead in Ohio (averaged) and a very small 1 point lead in VA, but he is more comfortably ahead in MI, PA and NV. I'm still pretty confident, especially after this last debate. I think the momentum has swung back to Obama.
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Old 10-23-2012, 03:28 PM   #443
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Obama has a 2.9 point lead in Ohio (averaged) and a very small 1 point lead in VA, but he is more comfortably ahead in MI, PA and NV. I'm still pretty confident, especially after this last debate. I think the momentum has swung back to Obama.
those numbers look shaky for Obama, the GOP has an iron fist of control in Ohio. All this early voting, Can anyone guarantee, many of those ballots won't end up disappearing? We have had people registering to vote as Democrats only to have the paid GOP worker throw their forms in the trash. If they show up to vote, they will not be allowed.

Some of you may recall the 2000 election. Jeb Bush, then Governor of Florida, in a phone conversation with Al Gore told him his brother would win the vote in Florida. Gore told Jeb Bush 'You do not decide who wins."

Well, who was right?
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Old 10-23-2012, 03:48 PM   #444
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It's going to be an intriguing night. I think Obama ultimately wins, but it's going to be tight. Of the states he carried four years ago, he's definitely losing NC this time, and I believe VA and FL could both go to Romney as well. WI, PA, NV and IA will probably still go to Obama. While NH has leaned to the left recently, it's up in the air here. That leaves OH obviously, but another interesting state is CO. They've gone GOP recently except for 2008, but it wasn't that close last time.

And of course, there's always the possibility of a tie...
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Old 10-23-2012, 03:55 PM   #445
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I think if there's a repeat of the 2000 fiasco, which ever side loses will not let the results rest easily - moreso than in 2000.
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Old 10-23-2012, 04:17 PM   #446
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i think we'll know early -- OH, VA, and FL are all on east coast time. if R loses any one of them, it's over.

also, i was heartened by Obama's last two debates. when he's on his A-game, he's as good as anybody, and it reminded me of when he schooled the GOP republicans back in January of 2010 (?) on health care. anyone who thinks he's nothing more than a cipher with a teleprompter is an idiot.
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Old 10-23-2012, 04:31 PM   #447
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They may be on the east coast, but I don't think a winner will be declared in any of those states for a while.
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Old 10-23-2012, 04:34 PM   #448
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They may be on the east coast, but I don't think a winner will be declared in any of those states for a while.
Very true. It will come down to specific counties. I could see NH, Penn, and Virginia called rather early.

I definitely plan on being up late that night though. It won't be a 9pm victory like last time.
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Old 10-23-2012, 04:42 PM   #449
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This will be the first election that I vote in, as well as the first election that I will be covering live in a newsroom. Should be a crazy night.
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Old 10-23-2012, 04:48 PM   #450
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This will be the first election that I vote in, as well as the first election that I will be covering live in a newsroom. Should be a crazy night.

Have fun. Big news events can make a newsroom an exciting place.
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