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Old 12-28-2010, 06:17 PM   #1
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2011 - what's coming

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The US will have a full year deficit of 1.4 trillion dollars. This depressing reality will hang on the US economy/markets. Congress will talk about the problem endlessly, but little will be accomplished. By the end of the year the problem will be so acute that belt tightening is put in place for 2013-15. But it will be too late by then.

-QE2 will be the last QE we see. The program will end (on schedule) on 6/30. Perversely, long-term interest rates will rise as long as QE continues. When the program is finished rates will begin a rapid decline. This will not go unnoticed by academia. The result will be that QE will be a disgraced policy that will not be used again for at least five years.

-The high for the S&P will occur before June. The S&P will fall short of 1,500. The low will be 1,100.

-Oil will rise to $130 in the next six months. It will be above $100 at the end of the year.

-China’s inflation rate will continue to rise. Food will be the primary driver. The central government will respond with monetary tightening and an acceleration of the Yuan appreciation. It will not work. Inflation will push 7%. The domestic economy will continue to grow but at a much smaller pace. 5% GPD will be all that China sees for the year. The trade surplus will fall by a third.

-Brazil will continue to shine as a resource rich country that runs a trade surplus and has low budget deficits. The surprise of the year will be Argentina. Food will be the reason. Argentina’s fortunes will improve with rising wheat and soy prices.

-The US will wind down its presence in Iraq. With every step we take out the door domestic violence will rise. Iran will assume a larger roll in the south (Basra). This will not go over well with the US. Much of the year will be spent debating what should be done. US warships will be off the Iranian coast waiting for a phone call, but no shots will be fired. Russia and Germany will not go along with strong sanctions against Iran. The problem will fester toward a resolution in 2012.

-Kim Jong-Il will die. His son will take over. The heir is a nut, there will be more military exercises that results in shells landing on S. Korea soil. China will make public statements that it is trying to bring order; behind the scenes they will be applauding the chaos.

-Obama’s popularity will continue to fall. The legislative “successes” at the end of 2010 will convert to a series of failures. There will be no new stimulus. Portions of the health care legislation will be dialed back. The mandatory participation feature will be found unconstitutional. Without this feature the legislation makes no economic sense and a great debate will be initiated as to what to do about it. Nothing will be accomplished. Reason? There are no “answers” to this problem.

-Obama will propose a means test for Social Security in his State of the Union Address. Retirees who are living the high-life (Warren Buffet types) are going to have their SS checks cut to the bone. Any senior with income of $200k will be impacted. The great socialization of Social Security will have begun. The popularity of this program will fall of a cliff.

-The 2% reduction on worker contributions to Social Security will be extended and expanded to 3% for 2012. Rates will not go up in future years. Social Security will have to be gutted as a result. This will not happen in 2011. But the seeds will be sown for this to occur in 2014.

2011 - What's Coming | zero hedge
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Old 12-28-2010, 06:27 PM   #2
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What's coming in 2011? A new Radiohead album, hopefully.
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Old 12-28-2010, 06:39 PM   #3
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You are not to blame for
Bittersweet distractor
Dare not speak its name
Dedicated to all human beings

Because we separate like ripples on a blank shore
In rainbows
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Old 12-28-2010, 07:49 PM   #4
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-Kim Jong-Il will die. His son will take over. The heir is a nut, there will be more military exercises that results in shells landing on S. Korea soil. China will make public statements that it is trying to bring order; behind the scenes they will be applauding the chaos.


This could be a tragic scenario for 2011.

It seems that we never learn from the past.

The West basically ignored Hitler and the Nazis in the 1930s. Millions
of people lost their lives and millions suffered as a result.




N.Korean troops' new uniform alarms S.Korea
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Old 12-28-2010, 08:43 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the iron horse View Post
-Kim Jong-Il will die. His son will take over. The heir is a nut, there will be more military exercises that results in shells landing on S. Korea soil. China will make public statements that it is trying to bring order; behind the scenes they will be applauding the chaos.


This could be a tragic scenario for 2011.

It seems that we never learn from the past.

The West basically ignored Hitler and the Nazis in the 1930s. Millions
of people lost their lives and millions suffered as a result.




N.Korean troops' new uniform alarms S.Korea
I'm not sure where that article writer pulled it out of his ass that the son is a nut, or that he would seemingly be more hostile towards SK than his father.

Reports I've read from the Wikileaks cables and profiles on his son seem to point to him being more interested in video games and Eric Clapton than eradicating their southern neighbours. The North Korean military is uneasy about him taking over.

We could very well see a military coup.
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Old 12-28-2010, 08:57 PM   #6
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Point of historical order: Nazi Germany was the West. Part of it, anyway. And far from ignoring it, the (rest of the) West spent most of the 1930s trying to grapple with it. Continental war is no joke.
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Old 12-29-2010, 06:21 AM   #7
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And the annihilation of Seoul is no joke either, so there is going to be no hawkish, pre-emptive stupidity over North Korea either.
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Old 12-29-2010, 07:13 PM   #8
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it gets worse....

http://www.alamongordo.com/prophecies_for_2011.html

drink like there's no tomorrow folks, cause if you believe these nutjobs there might not be!
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Old 12-30-2010, 05:33 AM   #9
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Talk about hedging your bets. World War III WILL HAPPEN! IT WILL HAPPEN! Maybe in 2011, but maybe in 2012. AND IT WILL HAPPEN BETWEEN (any remotely possible combination of countries that don't at present particularly like each other)!!! MARK MY WORDS!!! I reckon New Zealand and Sweden are going to go for it in October. For sure.
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Old 12-30-2010, 06:14 AM   #10
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i hate those smug swedish bastards.
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Old 12-30-2010, 01:32 PM   #11
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-The US will wind down its presence in Iraq. With every step we take out the door domestic violence will rise. Iran will assume a larger roll in the south (Basra). This will not go over well with the US. Much of the year will be spent debating what should be done. US warships will be off the Iranian coast waiting for a phone call, but no shots will be fired. Russia and Germany will not go along with strong sanctions against Iran. The problem will fester toward a resolution in 2012.
Who ever made this prediction has not been following events in Iraq over the past 3 to 4 years. The violence in Iraq has been steadily decreasing since the Surge of troops in 2007-2008. The level of domestic violence in Iraq now is tiny compared to the level of violence that was there in 2006-2007. The United States has gone down from a peak of 180,000 in December 2007, to just 50,000 now, and there has been no rise in domestic violence. Conditions around the country have steadily improved and the Iraqi's have finally formed a government with Malaki as the head after the largest Sunni and Shia parties resolved their disputes. US troops that are still in the country are providing logistical support, advise and training. All combat missions are now being done by the Iraqi military and police. The visibility of US troops on the ground in Iraq these days is limited.

I predict though that a new agreement will be made to allow about 10,000 US troops to stay beyond the December 2011 deadline to leave in order to continue to logistically support, train and advise the Iraqi military.

As for Iran, their involvement in Iraq peaked in 2008 and was broken when Malaki destroyed many of the militia movements they were supporting in southern Iraq. While they still have some sort of a presence, it is not at the level it was when Iraq was engulfed in violence and disorder.
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Old 12-30-2010, 05:05 PM   #12
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As long as the CAD continues to appreciate against the USD, I'm a happy camper.
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Old 01-02-2011, 10:11 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adam4bono View Post
Who ever made this prediction has not been following events in Iraq over the past 3 to 4 years. The violence in Iraq has been steadily decreasing since the Surge of troops in 2007-2008. The level of domestic violence in Iraq now is tiny compared to the level of violence that was there in 2006-2007. The United States has gone down from a peak of 180,000 in December 2007, to just 50,000 now, and there has been no rise in domestic violence. Conditions around the country have steadily improved and the Iraqi's have finally formed a government with Malaki as the head after the largest Sunni and Shia parties resolved their disputes. US troops that are still in the country are providing logistical support, advise and training. All combat missions are now being done by the Iraqi military and police. The visibility of US troops on the ground in Iraq these days is limited.

I predict though that a new agreement will be made to allow about 10,000 US troops to stay beyond the December 2011 deadline to leave in order to continue to logistically support, train and advise the Iraqi military.

As for Iran, their involvement in Iraq peaked in 2008 and was broken when Malaki destroyed many of the militia movements they were supporting in southern Iraq. While they still have some sort of a presence, it is not at the level it was when Iraq was engulfed in violence and disorder.



I think President Bush made a big mistake by not dividing Irag into three separate regions for the Kurds, the Sunni and the Shia.
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Old 01-02-2011, 10:13 PM   #14
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i laughed
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Old 01-02-2011, 11:33 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the iron horse View Post
I think President Bush made a big mistake
I agree.
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