2008 U.S. Presidential Election: First Debate - Page 13 - U2 Feedback

Go Back   U2 Feedback > Lypton Village > Free Your Mind
Click Here to Login
Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 09-27-2008, 08:02 PM   #181
Rock n' Roll Doggie
Band-aid
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Posts: 4,422
Local Time: 04:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by A_Wanderer View Post
Given Obama's messianic levels of oratorical skill one would expect McCain to have been completely annihilated, instead we get more complaints that the GOP is being mean, wtf.


Obama spoke intelligently, with composure, dignity, and respect for his opponent. He stated his case in clear, concise, and thoughtful tones. He did not evade questions, and was able to look at both McCain, Leher, and the worldwide audience.

McCain rattles on like the old uncle at a BBQ who likes to tell stories of years past, being condescending to everyone, and avoiding clear answers to important questions. And he wouldn't even look at Obama. Is he a racist or just shy?

I think Obama did just fine...in fact, let's see what the next 2 debates bring.
__________________

__________________
JOFO is offline  
Old 09-27-2008, 09:01 PM   #182
Blue Crack Addict
 
deep's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: A far distance down.
Posts: 28,501
Local Time: 08:40 PM
Ok

it looks like all the reports are in
Obama won

hands down

he should get a 5- 8 point bump in the polls over the next 7-10 days


and the second debate Obama will put McCain down for the count.
__________________

__________________
deep is offline  
Old 09-27-2008, 09:05 PM   #183
Blue Crack Addict
 
anitram's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 16,294
Local Time: 11:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
Ok

it looks like all the reports are in
Obama won

hands down

he should get a 5- 8 point bump in the polls over the next 7-10 days
According to whom? You? I haven't seen any pollster claim that such a bump is to be expected.

Or is this about bumping up expectations so there can be a big production when Obama isn't leading by 937 points? How could that be??
__________________
anitram is online now  
Old 09-27-2008, 09:13 PM   #184
Resident Photo Buff
Forum Moderator
 
Diemen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Somewhere in middle America
Posts: 13,237
Local Time: 10:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by deep View Post
Ok

it looks like all the reports are in
Obama won

hands down

he should get a 5- 8 point bump in the polls over the next 7-10 days


and the second debate Obama will put McCain down for the count.
I would ask you to quote a source but I think I just did.
__________________
Diemen is offline  
Old 09-27-2008, 09:53 PM   #185
Rock n' Roll Doggie
Band-aid
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Posts: 4,422
Local Time: 04:40 AM
LOL.
Yep.
__________________
JOFO is offline  
Old 09-27-2008, 09:59 PM   #186
Blue Crack Addict
 
deep's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: A far distance down.
Posts: 28,501
Local Time: 08:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by anitram View Post
According to whom?
I think it was you that referred me to FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right for more accurate interpretation of polling data.


They are projecting Obama to win the Electoral college vote 317 -221.

Quote:
Why Voters Thought Obama Won

TPM has the internals of the CNN poll of debate-watchers, which had Obama winning overall by a margin of 51-38. The poll suggests that Obama is opening up a gap on connectedness, while closing a gap on readiness.

Specifically, by a 62-32 margin, voters thought that Obama was “more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you”. This is a gap that has no doubt grown because of the financial crisis of recent days. But it also grew because Obama was actually speaking to middle class voters. Per the transcript, McCain never once mentioned the phrase “middle class” (Obama did so three times). And Obama’s eye contact was directly with the camera, i.e. the voters at home.
__________________
deep is offline  
Old 09-27-2008, 10:07 PM   #187
Blue Crack Addict
 
anitram's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 16,294
Local Time: 11:40 PM
First of all, they are not predicting 317-221. The number you are seeing there does not correspond to actual electoral votes, it is a projection based on popular vote numbers and trend lines, etc. In fact if you look at it closely, it says 317.8-220.2 - obviously that can't be so.

Second, if you already went there then I'm surprised you didn't bother quoting this:

Quote:
A variety of reactions to the debate seem possible to me, including (in rough order of probability): i) a small gain for Obama; ii) no effective change; iii) a larger gain for Obama; (iv) a small gain for McCain.
which of course goes contrary to what you were saying with respect to a huge 5-8% bounce.

__________________
anitram is online now  
Old 09-27-2008, 11:27 PM   #188
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Irvine511's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 30,493
Local Time: 11:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by A_Wanderer View Post
Given Obama's messianic levels of oratorical skill one would expect McCain to have been completely annihilated, instead we get more complaints that the GOP is being mean, wtf.


no, that's quite incorrect. Obama is not considered a superlative debater the way he is considered the best speaker arguably since Kennedy. generally speaking, HRC was the best Democratic debater, and McCain was the best GOP debater. further, last night was on foreign policy, supposedly where McCain is amongst the self-proclaimed best minds on the planet, the one who sees evil for what it is and the one who believes that war is a perfectly legitimate way to get countries to do what we want.

it was supposed to be McCain who was supposed to win, Obama just had to look like he was in the same league as the oft-venerated McCain.

and he was. and is.
__________________
Irvine511 is offline  
Old 09-27-2008, 11:28 PM   #189
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Irvine511's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 30,493
Local Time: 11:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by anitram View Post
According to whom? You? I haven't seen any pollster claim that such a bump is to be expected.

Or is this about bumping up expectations so there can be a big production when Obama isn't leading by 937 points? How could that be??

i would absolutely like him to have a solid 5-8 point lead going into 11/4. he's going to need it to overcome white racism.
__________________
Irvine511 is offline  
Old 09-27-2008, 11:31 PM   #190
Blue Crack Addict
 
anitram's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NY
Posts: 16,294
Local Time: 11:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
i would absolutely like him to have a solid 5-8 point lead going into 11/4. he's going to need it to overcome white racism.
He already has a 5 pt lead in nearly every national poll.

Another 5-8 pts on top of that, which is what deep was proposing, would be a landslide of epic proportions.
__________________
anitram is online now  
Old 09-27-2008, 11:31 PM   #191
Rock n' Roll Doggie
Band-aid
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Posts: 4,422
Local Time: 04:40 AM
Unfortunately, ain't it the truth.
The white racism part.....
__________________
JOFO is offline  
Old 09-27-2008, 11:43 PM   #192
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Irvine511's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 30,493
Local Time: 11:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by anitram View Post
He already has a 5 pt lead in nearly every national poll.

Another 5-8 pts on top of that, which is what deep was proposing, would be a landslide of epic proportions.

a tsunami perhaps?
__________________
Irvine511 is offline  
Old 09-27-2008, 11:51 PM   #193
Resident Photo Buff
Forum Moderator
 
Diemen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Somewhere in middle America
Posts: 13,237
Local Time: 10:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
a tsunami perhaps?
__________________
Diemen is offline  
Old 09-27-2008, 11:52 PM   #194
Blue Crack Supplier
 
Irvine511's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 30,493
Local Time: 11:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diemen View Post


x 1441
__________________
Irvine511 is offline  
Old 09-30-2008, 12:57 AM   #195
Blue Crack Addict
 
deep's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: A far distance down.
Posts: 28,501
Local Time: 08:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by anitram View Post
First of all, they are not predicting 317-221.


Real clear politics is almost there

RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map

Quote:
Originally Posted by Irvine511 View Post
a tsunami perhaps?
landslide ?

Barack Obama's top team believes he can win White House by a landslide - Telegraph
__________________

__________________
deep is offline  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:40 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Design, images and all things inclusive copyright © Interference.com